How a ‘mind-boggling’ blunder created a dangerous Brexit deadlock

Photographer: Paul Faith / Bloomberg

Thirty years ago, during the long-running sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland, armed men failed in an attempt to murder a young academic in Belfast.

Adrian Guelke survived, still lives in the city and, last week, watched with astonishment how the European Union intensified the tensions that almost cost him his life by threatening the part of the Brexit agreement that aims to protect the fragile peace in the region.

Now a professor emeritus of politics at Queen’s University Belfast, Guelke described the bloc’s threat to control the flow of coronavirus vaccines in Northern Ireland as a “mind-blowing” blunder.

“Pandora’s box has been opened,” he said in a telephone interview.

The EU may have backed off, but it inadvertently allowed Northern Ireland trade unionists, who wish to remain part of the UK, to revive a separate and much larger controversy that Brexit was supposed to have resolved forever: the status of the border with Britain. continental.

The dispute threatens not only to sour the EU’s fragile post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom, but also to become a critical point for the latent discontent among union members over the deal that Boris Johnson signed, despite his opposition.

Biden Alert

While there are few signs that the crisis will immediately reignite the total conflict between Northern Ireland’s Protestant trade unionists, the nationalist Catholic minority, who want to join the Republic of Ireland, and British troops, history shows how events in the province can quickly get out of control.

The reaction of Johnson, the EU and the Northern Ireland trade unionists in the coming days and months could tip the balance. US President Joe Biden has already warned that the peace process in Northern Ireland must be protected.

“Unquestionably, there are people running around seeing an opportunity to resume some paramilitary activities,” said Reg Empey, a former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party. “Just a lunatic is enough.”

Read more: How the Brexit business tries to solve the Irish border problem: QuickTake

Unlike the rest of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland effectively remained in the EU’s customs union and in the single market after Brexit – a crucial concession Johnson made to the bloc in order to guarantee Britain’s orderly departure.

By keeping the land border with Ireland free of checkpoints, both sides hoped to avoid a return to the era of problems. But it came at a price: goods arriving from the rest of the UK would be subject to checks and extra paperwork when crossing the Irish Sea from the mainland.

Border delays

The Democratic Unionist Party, the largest political party in Northern Ireland, opposed the so-called Protocol because it treats the province differently from the rest of the United Kingdom. But it had to deal with the consequences: delays and interruptions at the border, which are proving to be unpopular with voters.

Retailers like John Lewis have suspended sales to the region. Marks & Spencer Group Plc withdrew about 300 of its products from its stores in Northern Ireland, and images of empty food shelves flooded social media.

Under increasing pressure from even more hardline supporters, the DUP had already pressured the British Prime Minister to discard the Protocol. Johnson initially ignored the DUP, dismissing delays and shortages as initial problems.

Blindsided

Everything changed at the end of January 29, when Northern Ireland was caught up in the EU’s vaccine crisis. Suddenly, the bloc raised – albeit vaguely – the prospect of controls returning to the 500-kilometer border from Derry in the north to Dundalk in the south.

“They pulled the rug out from under the Protocol’s defenders,” said Guelke, who was shot by loyal paramilitaries who mistakenly believed he had links to the Irish Republican movement.

The authorities in London were surprised. A person with knowledge of the situation said he was appalled that the EU did not appreciate the sensitivities surrounding the Protocol and the peace it was designed to protect.

The next day, ministers including Michael Gove, from the Government Office, and Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis, held talks on the crisis with Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney. During the video call, they agreed that they needed an emergency meeting with the EU to show the dangers of the Commission’s actions. In the meantime, ministers downplayed the seriousness of the situation in public.

Johnson Threat

On Wednesday, Johnson was confronted in Parliament by a member of the DUP, who demanded that he prove his commitment to the UK. The prime minister threatened to suspend parts of the Brexit deal in the same way that the EU had done, if this is necessary to end controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea.

That evening, Gove, Lewis and the DUP leaders, as well as their political opponents Sinn Fein, presented their cases directly to Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic.

The conversation, on another Zoom call, was described as direct by a person familiar with the matter. Gove demanded that the EU delay the implementation of full checks on food, medicine and packages until 2023 to help reduce delays at the border – but Sefcovic objected.

Based on that meeting, the British authorities say they doubt that the Commission really understands the extent to which it is playing with fire in Northern Ireland.

‘Dangerous place’

In particular, EU officials, who freely admit that the bloc was wrong, suspect that Johnson is using the vaccine crisis as an opportunity to win concessions in the operation of the Protocol. Few expect him to try to close the deal at once.

There are also tensions on the British side. While union members want the entire protocol to be canceled, Johnson and his team have not given the EU any time to comply with UK requirements. They simply want the bloc to take seriously the need to resolve problems with the protocol and hope the vaccine dispute will serve as an alert for Brussels. This can disappoint the DUP.

“We are in a dangerous place now,” said Edward Burke, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Nottingham, who is researching the effect of Brexit on the security relationship between Ireland and England.

“Unionists and legalists do not to sense as if London or Dublin are listening to your concerns, ”he said. “And the pattern in Northern Ireland in recent decades is, unfortunately, that violence or the threat of violence gains attention and money from both governments.”

‘Threatening behavior’

Days after the EU’s error, local and European authorities withdrew their inspectors from the ports of Larne and Belfast after what the local municipality said was “an increase in sinister and threatening behavior”.

The police, however, emphasize that there is no evidence that organized loyal paramilitary groups are behind these threats and are not convinced of how to take them seriously.

The risk is that events in Northern Ireland are in the habit of increasing. In 2013, for example, a decision by the City of Belfast to stop flying the British flag fueled the unrest that was amplified by the annual marches of Protestant groups. This, in turn, sparked the worst sectarian violence since the 1990s, paralyzing Belfast for much of that summer.

“If it weren’t for the pandemic, I think we would see huge demonstrations here,” said Empey. “The move to Brussels last week – I couldn’t say how serious that mistake was.”

– With the help of Kitty Donaldson and Ian Wishart