Houston hospital CEO predicts collective immunity in mid-summer

HOUSTON – Herd immunity in nine Greater Houston counties will be reached in mid-summer, predicted Baylor College of Medicine President and CEO Dr. Paul Klotman on Wednesday.

“The value for achieving herd immunity is a calculated value” based on the contagion of the virus, said Klotman. “It is not invented.”

Herd immunity is defined as a high degree of protection against a certain infectious disease, such as COVID-19, which occurs when a sufficient number of the population is immune, which severely limits the spread of the virus.

That herd immunity for the original COVID-19 strain is 60% to 65%, said Klotman. With the new variants, it is closer to 70% to 75%.

“This is going to be … mid-July, mid-summer,” he said.

Those percentages include both those vaccinated and those who contracted COVID-19 and recovered, he added.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found that for every case of the virus reported, there are several others that are not counted.

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In other words, Klotman said, we will have achieved herd immunity in the region in mid-summer because about 50% of the population will be vaccinated by this time, and another large segment of the population will have recovered from the virus.

Klotman emphasized that, contrary to popular belief, refusing to follow CDC guidelines would not delay collective immunity, but would accelerate it – at an unacceptable cost.

“If we stop public health measures now, you can predict, we will have another 1,500 to 7,000 Texans dying by July,” said Klotman.

Other health leaders who attended the virtual press conference on Wednesday said the race to vaccinate people faster than the variants is spreading.

“We are really concerned that we are going to have a huge increase in these people who are not continuing public health measures, to really put a big flow of infection and patients in our hospital,” said Bill McKeon, president and CEO of Texas Medical Center.

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“We are on a much larger disease base than we already had in June and July,” added McKeon. “We are not seeing the rapid decline that we would like to see.”

“The virus is the enemy,” said Houston chief physician Dr. David Persse. “Wearing a mask is a strategy. A very effective strategy to minimize the effect of the virus. “