Here we go again. At the end of last year, Warner Bros. was hampered after announcing that all of its new films in 2021 would premiere simultaneously on HBO Max and in theaters. Film operators, rival studios and even some of the filmmakers behind the films wondered aloud why, with the prospect of coronavirus vaccines approaching, Warner Bros. would you make such a radical decision? It was a move that seemed to wave the white flag of people who go to the cinema for the next 12 months.
Nobody expected mass immunization overnight, but with vaccines being given gradually in the United States, it now appears that Warner Bros. may have thought about the future. Numerous films remain on the release schedule for the beginning of 2021, but cases of the virus in many areas are higher than ever and approximately 65% of US theaters – including those in popular markets like New York and Los Angeles – remain closed. . Going back to the cinema in any normal way seems as unrealistic today as it was last March, when cinemas across the country were closed.
To be sure, most potential blockbusters have already been delayed until mid-summer or later. But there are a handful of movies scheduled for the first quarter of the year: “Cinderella” by Sony, starring Camila Cabello (February 5), “The Man of the King” from Disney and the 20th century (March 12) and the thriller of superheroes “Morbius” by Jared Leto also from Sony (March 19), to name a few. These seem very unlikely to keep their release dates in theaters, at least without embracing some kind of hybrid digital or video on demand debut.
Even in traditional times, the stretch between January and March is a kind of cinematic garbage dump. Therefore, it is not entirely unexpected that the current release schedule will not pick up significantly until May, with the premiere of Disney and Marvel’s “Black Widow” (May 7), Warner Bros. and Legendary’s “Godzilla vs. Kong” (May 21), Ryan Reynolds’s “Free Guy” from 20th Century Studios (May 21), Paramount’s “Infinite” starring Mark Wahlberg (May 28), Disney’s “Cruella” with Emma Stone (May 28) and Universal’s “F9” (May 28) But many of those titles are likely to change as well if conditions don’t improve dramatically in the next month or so.
Hollywood players will continue to take different approaches to operating and finding the best way to reach audiences during the pandemic. Disney, Warner Bros. and Universal seem more prepared to survive in the coming months, with contingency plans ranging from daily launches on streaming services to accelerated premium video on demand windows. Neither Sony nor Paramount has a streaming service ready to download titles, so these companies will likely continue to postpone release dates or sell their films to platforms like Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime. Paramount auctioned off most of its upcoming films and has nothing on the horizon until “A Quiet Place Part II” on April 23, which it has no plans to sell.
As it stands, “Cinderella” is scheduled as the first 2021 release from a major studio. However, it is hard to believe that the fairy tale adaptation directed by Kay Cannon will retain its release date in early February.
Sony declined to comment on the schedule.
But it doesn’t take a detective to realize that there was a conspicuous absence of marketing – no hint of first images, no flickering of a teaser trailer, no evidence of Camila Cabello-inspired promotional toys – for the film that was due to be released next month. Most films begin to launch advertising efforts six weeks before their release, often even earlier if it is a sequel or spinoff of a popular franchise. However, sources at Sony emphasize that the classic princess will play her due on the big screen. While Sony sent Seth Rogen’s “An American Pickle” to HBO Max and Kristen Stewart’s romantic comedy “The Happiest Season” to Hulu last year, sources say “Cinderella” will not be sold to a streamer and Sony is committed to a theatrical release.
Disney was also silent about “The King’s Man”, a frequently postponed prequel to the “Kingsman” series, which is scheduled for early March. There is a little more time before the studio traditionally starts showing trailers and other promotional materials, but if the ads don’t start materializing in the coming weeks, it may be fair to assume that director Matthew Vaughn’s latest film in the comedy franchise of espionage is being carried out again. There have been rumors that a major streaming service would like to take the film out of Disney’s hands, but it is not clear whether the studio would sell the film. Also, if you went that route, you could always debut “The King’s Man” on Hulu, owned by you.
There were also rumors that another Disney pillar, the Marvel adventure led by Scarlet Johansson, “Black Widow”, could follow in the footsteps of another studio release “Raya and the Last Dragon”, which debuts simultaneously in cinemas and at Disney Plus for a premium price. Disney members continue to deny these rumors. Still, in the coronavirus era, nothing is being considered – until it is. Disney sources have contested reports that Pixar’s “Soul” would debut on Disney Plus, only to announce a month later that “Soul” would debut on Disney Plus.
It is true that, for any film, plans will be fluid as long as the pandemic remains rampant. What does not change, however, is the fact that it is insurmountably more challenging for a film of the size and scale of “Black Widow” to become profitable without a traditional showcase. Many rival studios gaped at Warner Bros. ‘decision to send “Wonder Woman 1984”, “The Suicide Squad”, “Duna” and other mega-budget films to HBO Max. In the case of “Wonder Woman 1984”, skipping a big theatrical debut probably meant that film will lose more than $ 100 million at the box office. You can be proud of HBO Max subscriptions, but it is ambiguous whether the additional revenue will cover the loss of ticket sales. Other Warners titles scheduled for a hybrid release may likewise be in the red.
Medium budget films can enjoy a more attractive return on investment through premium video on demand, as they require transactions in individual titles and do not need as many credit cards to go black. And some studios may be willing to accept the occasional drop if it means increasing streaming subscribers, as was the case with “Hamilton” on Disney Plus. But it is almost impossible for films with prices around $ 200 million to make a profit in today’s film scene. This means that the “Fast and Furious” sequel “F9” and the James Bond entry “No Time to Die” (scheduled for April 2) are likely to vacate those release dates, unless many more people are vaccinated.
MGM, which finances the 007 franchise, and Universal, the studio behind the high-octane series, declined to comment. Universal also has international rights over “No Time to Die”.
Universal deployed its first premium video on demand pact with exhibitors like AMC and Cinemark for modest success, with “Trolls World Tour” and “The King of Staten Island” among the titles that earned money for the studio. But few predict that Universal will test its PVOD deal – which allows the studio to place new titles on digital rental services 17 days after its debut in the cinema – in a market that is hampered by a very important support pillar like “F9”. Recent versions of the series led by Vin Diesel have passed the billion dollar mark with relative ease. Both “F9” and “No Time to Die” depend on worldwide revenues, especially in Asia, where share franchises are especially popular. As their respective studios invest a staggering amount of marketing dollars in global promotional efforts, companies will have to make a decision by the end of January to avoid falling unnecessary expenses. If those titles are postponed again, studios may be keeping an eye on the 2021 holiday aisle in hopes of escaping the COVID-19 crisis once and for all.
For many studios, delay, delay and delay may be the best option – I hope this is the last time. But if the pandemic has proved anything, Hollywood could find itself repeating that song and dance in another six months.