CNN – With Christmas in the rear view mirror, public health experts are preparing for yet another increase in Covid-19 cases, similar to those seen after other US holidays in recent months.
“We just saw these amplification events and that’s what happened later this year in the United States,” said Erin Bromage, associate professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth.
“We had Thanksgiving Day, Labor Day, Halloween and each of these events brought many people together and gave the virus more fuel to move through the population,” said Bromage. “Christmas is going to do something similar.”
Despite warnings from the United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to delay travel and stay at home, more than 7.1 million people were examined at TSA checkpoints last week, according to the agency’s figures.
Nearly 1.2 million people were examined at airports on Wednesday alone, a record for air travel for the pandemic. Although the number of travelers tracked on Christmas Day – 616,469 people – represents only 23% of the total screened on the same day last year, the number remains worrying for the authorities because it does not signal the end of the holiday travel rush, but a lull before travelers start coming home.
For weeks, health experts and officials have asked Americans to stay safe during this holiday season, and this guidance extends to New Year’s Eve, with the CDC asking revelers to celebrate at home or virtually. If they host a party in person, the agency suggests that they stay outside, limiting the number of guests, providing extra masks and keeping the background music low to prevent screaming.
Dr. Carlos del Rio, executive associate dean of the School of Medicine at Emory University, said that if people get together, they should get together with less than 10 people and take the test at least once, maybe twice.
“Its level of protection is as strong as its weakest link, and if there is a weak link, the virus will spread,” he told CNN. “We learned how quickly and easily this virus spreads, so we have to take all possible precautions.”
UK travelers face new US testing requirement on Monday
Authorities fear the increase, even if the United States plans to demand a negative Covid-19 test for all UK travelers, after the emergence of a new variant of the coronavirus that is potentially more transmissible and said to have originated in the UK .
The CDC announced Thursday that passengers will need a negative PCR or antigen test within 72 hours after boarding a flight from the UK to the U.S., along with documentation of their laboratory results. Airlines will be required to confirm the test before the flight.
The order takes effect on Monday.
But the CDC researchers themselves found that taking a Covid-19 test three days before traveling reduced the risk of spreading the new coronavirus by only 5 to 9%, according to an article published online last month.
The test on departure day can reduce that risk by 37 to 61%, according to the article, which has not been peer-reviewed.
Dr. del Rio was skeptical about the test’s effectiveness, telling CNN on Saturday that he believed it would be better to also require a rapid antigen test when boarding, and perhaps when landing in the United States.
A test ‘is not enough’
“A test in my mind is not enough,” he said. “I think you need to do at least two tests.”
The CDC said earlier this week that the variant was not identified through sequencing efforts in the U.S., but that may be because the US surveillance system established for Covid-19 has yet to detect it.
It is “highly possible” that the new variant is already in the US, said del Rio, given the speed with which the virus spreads.
“I want to emphasize to the public that, instead of being terribly concerned about this new variety, I think we just need to reinforce the restrictions that we are talking about,” he said, pointing to the use of masks and social distance.