Washington – Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb predicted on Sunday that the new coronavirus variant discovered in the UK will be the dominant strain in the United States in a matter of weeks.
In an interview with “Face the Nation”, Gottlieb said the new variant accounts for about 0.5% of all infections across the country, but said it is likely to double every week.
“This is the experience of other countries and it is the experience that we have seen so far in the United States,” he told “Face the Nation”. “So it’s 1% now. It will be 2%, then 4%, then 8%, then 16%, then 32%. Then, in about five weeks, this will start to take over.”
Known as B.1.1.7, the new strain was detected in the UK in December and has since spread to more than 30 countries and at least 10 states. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a report on Friday that the variant discovered in the UK, which is believed to be more transmissible, will be the dominant strain in March. Another variant, known as B.1.351, also appeared in South Africa.
Although B.1.351 has not yet been detected in the United States, Gottlieb said that “the end result is that these strains are already here.”
“It really changes the equation, and I think what we are seeing is a relentless attack by this virus that is heading for spring, while infections would actually have started to subside in the spring,” he said. “We would have had a peaceful spring. We could have persistently high levels of infection in the spring until we finally vaccinate enough people.”
There have been more than 23.7 million confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, and the death toll is close to 400,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. But Gottlieb echoed a prediction by Dr. Rochelle Walensky, President-elect Joe Biden’s choice to lead the CDC, that the country is likely to see 500,000 coronavirus deaths in mid-February.
“I think tragically, that’s right. What we are likely to see is the infection starting to subside. I think we are seeing this now. We are seeing a short-term spike in terms of the number of new cases daily,” he said. “Now, unfortunately, deaths and hospitalizations will continue to grow in the next two or three weeks because they are an indicator of delay. But we will see continuous declines likely for about four weeks, perhaps five weeks until this new variant starts to occur over.”
Gottlieb said the new strains and the growing number of deaths underscored the need to accelerate the pace of administration of coronavirus vaccines.
The new Biden government has set a goal of 100 million vaccinations in Biden’s first 100 days in office, and Gottlieb said that goal is achievable.
“I think the plan that the new government came up with makes a lot of sense,” he said. “It’s kind of an all-up approach, what we’re talking about, trying to push it through different channels, like big stores, like pharmacies, trying to create more sites licensed by the federal government together with the states. “
According to the CDC, there were more than 31.1 million doses of coronavirus vaccine distributed and more than 12.2 million administered.