German Chancellor’s Race: Men Competing for Merkel’s Work

Angela Merkel has long dominated European and international politics. But this fall, after 16 years in office, the German chancellor will step down, leaving her party with the difficult task of finding a replacement. The process begins in earnest this weekend with the election of a new leader for its Christian Democratic CDU.

Many complain that the field of candidates is quite restricted. And at first glance, the three straight, white, middle-aged men seem somewhat indistinguishable. All are from the same region, North Rhine-Westphalia, and each has a law degree.

For obvious reasons, they all claim to embody a reliable future for both the center-right CDU and Germany as a whole. And they make similar promises to focus on issues like climate change and the digital economy.

But there are significant differences between them and the decision taken by the CDU this weekend will tell us a lot about how the party sees its post-Merkel future. So, who is in the race to lead the party?

Armin Laschet is a short, cheerful guy. The popular prime minister of the most populous state in Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia, he relishes the traditional carnival celebrations.

He calls himself a permanent candidate and, for a time at least, was considered Angela Merkel’s preferred candidate. He defended his position during the 2015 refugee crisis and is known for his liberal politics, passion for the EU and the ability to connect with immigrant communities.

But his call for an early relaxation of Covid restrictions last spring surprised many and reportedly infuriated Merkel. He has since withdrawn from that position, but has had to work to repair the damage to his political credibility.

Norbert Röttgen presents himself as a breath of fresh air.

Merkel’s photogenic foreign affairs expert and former environment minister likes media reports comparing him to George Clooney.

Once considered an unlikely winner, he increased his chances with an energetic digital campaign aimed at younger women and voters, and even launched a Spotify playlist.

A regular contributor to German news programs and talk shows, he advocates a more aggressive stance towards China and Russia. He will have to convince the party of his political abilities closer to home; Ms. Merkel dismissed him from her office in 2012 after he presided over a humiliating defeat for the CDU in a regional election.

When Friedrich Merz returned to the political scene in 2018, after almost 10 years away, many assumed he was looking for revenge.

He was an influential figure at the CDU before Angela Merkel removed him. He is a skilled speaker who has made a fortune in business and banking. He is eager to announce his economic experience to a country that, sooner or later, will have to deal with the financial consequences of the Covid pandemic.

Although he alarmed some with controversial comments about immigration and homosexuality, he appeals to party traditionalists who are nervous about Merkel’s centrist policy.

Merz leads the polls with members of the CDU, but the decision will be taken by 1,001 party delegates in a secret ballot.

One such delegate is Katja Leikert. She is looking for a modernizer, someone to win more female voters and immigrants from the party.

“We don’t need someone who just wants to differentiate themselves from Angela Merkel,” she told the BBC. “It was a good time for Germany. But after 16 years, we need a new start.”

Do not assume – although it is often the case – that the successful candidate in the race for the CDU will be the next German chancellor.

It will be spring before the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, CSU, finally decide who will lead them in the September election as their candidate for chancellor. After all, they want to be sure that their man – and will be a man – will win.

It may seem strange that, within a few months of a historic election, there is no official candidate. This is partly due to the fact that when Angela Merkel resigned from the party’s leadership in 2018, the subsequent election of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was, in theory, the anointing of an approved heir. But AKK, as she is known here, resigned after a series of gaffes, leaving the field open again.

And just as the Covid pandemic closed Germany’s shops and restaurants and restricted much of daily life, so did the political landscape; delaying and complicating the race to replace Ms. Merkel.

It raised the profile and improved the chances of two other potential successors: the Prime Minister of Bavaria and the leader of the CSU, Markus Söder, and the Minister of Health, Jens Spahn. The two insist that they don’t want the main job – but no one really believes them.

The Bavarian leader has emerged as a clear favorite in polls with the public and members of the CDU. His decisive way of dealing with the pandemic in his state has increased his popularity. No CSU leader has ever made it to the chancellery, but within the CDU today, there is little resistance to the idea.

Still, political analyst Prof Ursula Münch thinks that when Söder says he wants to stay in Bavaria, he may be serious.

“It is very important to succeed in Bavaria – that is the main task of CSU and they have no one as dear as Markus Söder in Bavaria.

“It is not in CSU’s interest to introduce a chancellor of the federal republic, because they are more interested in fighting with the CDU. This is one of CSU’s specialties … these struggles for example over migration policy in the past with a party very close to them are a recipe for success in Bavaria. “

The health minister performed well under the pressure of a pandemic.

Some colleagues were also impressed with the way Spahn, who was once considered too ambitious, gracefully handled his failure to win the party’s lead when he ran against AKK and Friedrich Merz in 2018.

He is supporting Armin Laschet in his current proposal, but it is rumored that he is probing party members about their own chances. It is widely known that if Laschet is unsuccessful or successful, but retains insufficient support, then Spahn will throw his hat into the ring.

Angela Merkel is apparently going to be on the rise.

Thanks to her response to the pandemic, she is more popular than ever at home and her party is enjoying a much better position in opinion polls.

Whoever the party decides as its successor will be at a disadvantage because it does not have comparable influence and experience. But, as many here point out, 16 years ago, Angela Merkel had to learn the ropes too.

Just see, they say, how it ended.