Clean Power
published in January 3, 2021 |
by Tina Casey
January 3, 2021 in Tina Casey
With all eyes on Georgia, now would be a good time to call attention to a new “just transition” study by the Georgia Institute of Technology that suggests how the US can map tomorrow’s renewable energy workforce. The idea of a controlled and balanced transition is especially relevant for the States of the Rust Belt that have already suffered the consequences of failure in planning economic upheavals that lead to unemployment, displacement and malaise in the community. In particular, the new research adds more fuel to the fire that plagues clean energy in Ohio, where state lawmakers are still desperately clinging to fossil fuels.
A fair transition to the 2035 decarbonisation target is achievable by planning ahead for tomorrow’s renewable energy workforce.
Ohio sets the table for renewable energy deals
Ohio’s history as a manufacturing hub puts it in a good position to take advantage of the transition to renewable energy. The state’s skilled workforce, infrastructure, access to the supply chain and the transportation network are working in favor of new green jobs.
But that did not remove fossil energy from the state’s energy profile. The cost of clean energy is falling, but fossil energy still maintains a firm grip on electricity generation in Ohio. The state’s two nuclear power plants also compete for their share of the pie.
As a result, the current state of the green economy looks quite bleak in Buckeye. Ohio currently ranks # 28 for installed solar capacity among the 50 states and employs less than 8,000 workers in the solar industry. Its wind industry occupies a similarly gloomy position, sitting on shelf 24 for installed wind capacity and offering less than 2,000 jobs.
This is not so horrible, but for years the major corporations in the United States have been demanding more clean energy. Fossil-friendly states like Ohio may miss opportunities to attract and retain business. On second thought, Ohio is in an especially vulnerable position, considering its proximity to more renewable-friendly states like Illinois, Michigan and Indiana.
The winds of change shine on renewable energy in Ohio
On the bright side, Ohio’s renewable energy future may be closer than it looks. Despite the new 3-year moratorium proposal for large wind and solar projects, clean energy developers are lining up three to do business in Ohio.
Much of the activity is taking place in the solar energy area. Last week our friends in The Columbus Dispatch he immersed himself deeply in solar activity in Ohio and presented more than 20 solar projects at various proposal stages, driven in part by the emerging data center market.
O Dispatch estimates that these projects will bring a total of approximately 4 gigawatts of solar energy to Ohio, which would cover more than 14% of the state’s total electricity production. This is a huge step up from the current 0.5% mark for solar energy.
Activity in the wind sector is also starting to gain momentum. In 2014, the state approved new heavy restrictions on wind farms, but some of the country’s main corporate energy buyers helped break the deadlock. Whirlpool was one of the first companies to adopt corporate wind energy in search of a wind energy future for Ohio in 2016, followed by GM in 2017 with another wind farm announcement.
Just a few weeks ago, McDonald’s also announced a major clean energy business covering wind and solar in Ohio and several other states.
A love letter from Georgia
If and when the floodgates finally open up for renewable energy development in Ohio, the dark side could be an unemployment nightmare for thousands of fossil workers who cannot make the transition. Taking fossils out of power generation is a good thing for the planet, but the fortuitous closure of fossil plants has turned into extractive industries, promoting bankruptcies and restructuring that could leave workers, retirees and entire communities in trouble.
On the bright side, Ohio could become a perfect test case for the planning and forecasting ability to prepare today’s fossil workforce for the green jobs of the future.
That’s where the new Georgia Tech study comes in. It focuses on the retirement of power plants in the United States and is authored by Emily Grubert, assistant professor at the Georgia Tech School of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
You can get all the details under the heading, “Fossil electricity retirement deadlines for a fair transition, ”In the newspaper Science, but for those of you on the move, the title sums up Gruber’s case very well to trace the development of the green workforce according to the retirement deadlines for fossil power plants.
To put it another way, Grubert suggests that much of the heavy lifting to decarbonize the energy sector is already underway, because much of the country’s fossil energy capacity is about to retire in line with the carbon-free target of 2035 by President-elect Joe Biden.
Based on capacity, Gruber estimates that about 73% of gigawatts in US fossil fuel power generation will reach the end of their typical useful life in 2035.
This leaves the question of what to do with the remaining gigawatts. Squeezing them in the 2035 timeline can result in lost financial assets and liabilities affecting workers, leaving communities in some regions exposed to the type of financial catastrophe in the Rust Belt that decimated the steel and auto industries in the 1970s and 1980.
However, Gruber argues that the consequences could be manageable, considering the relatively small amount of lost assets that would result from accelerated retirements.
Based on service life, Gruber estimates that about 15% of capacity life would be stuck in the 2035 schedule. Compared to a 2018 employment baseline, this would translate into approximately 20% of power plant jobs and extraction of fossil fuel.
“… A deadline for decarbonizing electricity in 2035, as proposed by President-elect Biden and the 2020 Democratic Party platform, would hold only about 15% of years of fossil capacity and 20% of years of work, which it’s unusually low from a global perspective, ”Gruber explains. “These perceptions about the location and timing of potential plant closures are essential to inform specific, coordinated and locally based planning, which can substantially improve the results of the transition, but is not widespread or supported by a national structure.”
More green jobs for the US
If you noticed that thing about the lack of a national structure, this is true when it comes to White House policy. However, the U.S. Department of Energy appears to have charted its own course on renewable energy during the Trump administration, and workforce development is part of the plan.
In 2015, the Department of Energy estimated that the U.S. wind industry could support 600,000 green jobs by 2050 and provided subsidies to the industry to help fuel a steady supply of skilled workers for the wind energy pipeline.
The Department of Energy also started working with the Solar Foundation on developing the solar workforce during the Obama administration and continued to step up efforts after Trump took office. A noteworthy program is the Solar Ready Vets initiative, which gives active-duty soldiers an initial edge in training and employment services before they meet.
This is a very broad pipeline. Some 200,000 military personnel transition to civilian life each year, and many are equipped with skills that transfer to clean energy.
As for Ohio, coal and gas shareholders have held the reins for generations, but it is only a matter of time before state-owned companies with a growing footprint in the global renewable energy market begin to flex their energy policy muscles.
One company to watch out for is Guangzhou-based manufacturer Timken, which is drawing on its 100 years of experience in bearings and power transmission to establish itself in the global renewable energy field. Last month, Timken announced new investments in China, Japan and Mexico, with an eye on increasing demand and new customers.
State lawmakers looking to convince Timken that Ohio should be the company’s next target for new investments may want to take a closer look at the company’s latest sustainability-oriented vision statement, which cites “boosting the renewable energy sector” and “embracing energy efficiency, pollution prevention, waste management and recycling programs at Timken facilities around the world” among its main objectives.
Just saying.
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Image: “This map shows the locations of projected life expectancy electricity generation facilities that extend beyond 2035 ″ by Emily Grubert, Georgia Tech.
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About the author
Tina Casey specializes in military and corporate sustainability, advanced technology, emerging materials, biofuels and water and sewage issues. Tina’s articles are published frequently on Reuters, Scientific American and many other websites. The views expressed are her own. Follow her on twitter @TinaMCasey and Google+.