The free NFL agency takes real action today, when the “two-day trading window” or legal adulteration period starts at 4 pm Eastern Time. Players cannot officially sign contracts until the league year begins at 4pm on Wednesday. Until then, however, we will probably know exactly what will happen in the first wave of free agency.
What will the New York Giants be able to do? Despite the need to add talent to a team that made 6-10 in 2020, probably not much. At least not unless some dominoes fall quickly to open up some cover space.
On Sunday afternoon, Over The Cap lists the Giants with just $ 2,491 million to spend at the $ 182.5 million salary cap.
Two obvious things can change that for the Giants.
First, a long-term deal for Leonard Williams. The defensive striker is currently at the franchise’s mark and costing the Giants $ 19.351 million against the 2021 salary cap. The Giants are hopeful of getting a long-term deal with Williams, both to keep him in New York for the next few seasons and to slice perhaps $ 10-12 million of their success in 2021. With every hour that passes, however, the window to do so in time to help them compete at the bottom of the free agency’s rock bottom diminishes.
I still have a hard time seeing the Giants carry that massive limit hit, which brings tag-and-trade or terminating the tag in play. We have not heard any reports that these things are serious considerations, but it is worth mentioning.
CBS Sports analyst Joel Corry, a former sports agent, expects a deal with Williams to arrive in about four years and $ 86 million ($ 21.5 million a year) with about $ 45 million guaranteed.
The other thing is a restructuring of the pending contract with veteran offensive attack Nate Solder. After giving up on the 2020 season, Solder wants to play again in 2021 and there is a principle agreement between Solder and the Giants on a new agreement. The fact is that this has not yet been finalized. So, with time passing by and the Giants’ ability to spend money currently almost non-existent, Solder is still carrying a $ 16.5 million cap.
Spotrac says the league average for wage ceiling space entering the negotiation window is about $ 22.5 million. If the Giants manage to close deals with Williams and Solder in time, they may be right in that number. Otherwise, they will face a huge disadvantage when trying to compete for top players.
Even if they release that money, I have doubts that the Giants can or will be great players when it comes to the first deals with a lot of money. They may be able to make a great offer for the wide receiver or edge rusher of their choice, but they will have to do at least one of Williams and Solder’s closed deals first.
There are other ways for the Giants to make space, but this could easily be a year when the Giants are hunting for bargains at Marshall’s, rather than shopping at Macy’s.
Coach Joe Judge often talks about how it is the responsibility not only of the personnel department, but also of the coaching staff, getting to know players from across the league and being able to identify those who fit into his program.
“I think the only thing to keep in mind when looking at this free agency point of the year – and, look, it’s very exciting, and there’s a lot of press and media and it’s all on TV, but the reality is that it’s not Fantasy football . You can’t just take a player, put him on your team and think that everything is going to be all right. It has to be the right fit for your team in the future and this is a cultural fit and an adjustment schematically, and it has to be done both ways, ”said Judge. “There are things we do here that, look, we don’t make things easy for our players and coaches, this is intentional. The guys we have in this locker room bought, we had a lot of fun doing it, but we have a way of doing things. To be honest, this is not for everyone. You have to be sure to bring in someone who will fit the culture and who will buy what you are doing, and who shares the same team principles, values and goals that you have. “
There are two main areas where the Giants, if they manage to clear the resource limit, can be justifiably tempted to go for a big game instead of hunting for bargains. Let’s look at some of the possibilities.
Wide receiver
If the Giants are going to try to make a big splash of free agent on the wide receiver, that would mean a race against the Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay. there have been reports that people in league circles believe that the Giants are planning a race in Golladay. this should not surprise anyone. The 27-year-old 6-foot-4 and 214-pounder offers a combination of size to help in the short areas and great play ability to help in the deeper areas. He could be for Daniel Jones what Stefon Diggs was for Josh Allen a season ago. Mark Schofield tells us why:
Golladay had 1,000-yard consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2019, but played only five games in 2020 due to hamstring and hip tendon injuries. Golladay has averaged 16.8 yards per catch and 9.7 yards per target over his four-year career.
Our own Nick Falato wrote about Golladay to the Giants:
The former Illinois third-round pick would be a great addition as an X-type receiver on the outside. He can overcome the pressure on the scrimmage line, has exceptional body control / adjustability and uses his length well when the ball is in the air. Golladay could be Miles Austin de Garrett, Amari Cooper or Terrell Owens. If there are no long-term health problems with Golladay, he would be an ideal choice.
Pro Football Focus states that “Golladay will spark a lot of interest, but no one can want or need your services more than the Giants”. The PFF expects Golladay to close with the Giants in a four-year, $ 85 million deal. Spotrac’s market value tool predicts a $ 85 million deal in four years for Golladay.
Can the Giants play in this financial stratosphere for Golladay? They should? If they can’t, they can complement the wide receiver’s position with some free mid-priced or cheap agents before resorting to the draft. Falato recently offered us some suggestions:
Tony Pauline is reporting this morning that Jets and Dolphins have emerged as favorites to sign Golladay. Pauline writes that “after Golladay, many of the major free agent recipients may end up with sub-market contracts.” This may be exactly what the Giants are waiting for.
Edge rusher
Whatever happens to Williams, he is a defensive lineman on the pitch. The defense of the Giants would take a big leap forward with a dynamic forward player to threaten the offensive lines.
I have doubts that the Giants will have the financial assets or the desire to try splash hires on both the wide receiver and the edge. If they find a way to do that, great. As we enter the trading window, however, I see the top of the border defense market as a Plan B for the Giants.
We talked a lot about Carl Lawson, from Cincinnati Bengals, and why you have to look beyond the number of bags to understand the player. Gregg Rosenthal, the NFL.com’s sixth ranked free agent, calls it a “quick pass in a bottle”.
Falato recently listed Lawson, Matthew Judon, Bud Dupree and Hasson Reddick among the top defenders that the Giants could pursue. There are those who believe that Reddick, a native of New Jersey who had a great season in 2020 with 12.5 bags, is a natural target for the Giants.
Rosenthal lists him in 30th place on his list of 101 best free agents and warns that he “would be cautious about waiting for Reddick’s 2020 production again”.
Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia predicts a Reddick deal with the Giants, writing that “Reddick’s versatility would fit well with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s system, making it a good fit for both sides”.
Spotrac’s market value tool expects a four-year deal, $ 46,679 for Reddick, which works for $ 11.6 million annually.
Recently, I started to hope to make a move for Reddick. I will keep this. Here is part of what I wrote:
“Given the opportunity to play full time at the limit for the first time in his career in 2020, Reddick showed everyone why he was selected in the top half of the first round at NFL Draft 2017.
“To keep up with his 12.5 sacks, he had 16 quarterback strikes – doubling his career total. He was 35 in a hurry, after generating just 38 in the first three seasons. Reddick also forced 6 fumbles. Among qualifying pass rushers who ran 278 or more times, Reddick’s PFF pass-rush productivity score of 8.9 was the fifth in the NFL. …
“Now, it is dangerous to pay a player if you are looking at the fact that the best game of his career was against his team. Reddick’s five-bag shot against the Giants last season was just that for him. As much as he receives “Kudos” for that, the Giants are so deserving of a “Wet Willie”. This was the game “a statue of Daniel Jones posing as a quarterback”, when he was an easy target and – in my opinion – he absolutely shouldn’t be playing.
“Still, Reddick’s 2020 shows a rising player entering his prime that has finally been used in the right way. The way, in fact, that the Giants would use it if they hired it. I would pay absolutely $ 11 million and change for that. It can end up being a bargain. “
I also wonder if the Giants will make a move for Kyle Van Noy, launched by the Miami Dolphins. His time with Judge as a member of the New England Patriots, as well as his skill set, make him attractive.
Here are some low-cost options that the Giants can pursue if they lose high-level players.
Hunting for bargains for other help
As I wrote above, wide receiver and edge are the only places where I can see the Giants considering an eye-catching signature. Even in these places, it is possible to hunt for bargains. Remember, with Judge as coach, there is more and more of a Patriots-style influence on the Giants’ decisions, and New England is not known for its flashy off-season moves.
I can see the Giants looking for bargains like running back, guard, cornerback and maybe even a linebacker off the ball.
At the back front of the race, everything is calm around the idea of Wayne Gallman returning to the Giants. Here is our analysis of some of the budget options in the free agent running back market.
The Giants may also be looking for an initial caliber cornerback. Here are some of the players that they can consider.