Four serious cases of COVID, no deaths

Four serious cases of COVID, no deaths

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A year ago, we were wondering if an effective coronavirus vaccine could ever be developed for humans. Six months ago, we were wondering if any of the developing vaccines would really work or if 50 percent effectiveness was the best we could hope for.

Today, looking at these numbers, I am wondering if the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are the most important medical discovery since the polio vaccine.

Remember that the segment of the population of Israel that has been fully vaccinated is much older. According to the most recent data, 80 percent of Israelis aged 60 or older received both vaccines, while only 20 percent of the 16- to 59-year-old population did so. The vaccine eliminated COVID deaths and almost completely eliminated serious cases of COVID among the population that is * most susceptible * to these results.

Salvation:

An Israeli health care provider who vaccinated half a million people with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine says that only 544 people – or 0.1% – were later diagnosed with the coronavirus, there were four serious cases and no one died.

That means the efficacy rate is 93 percent, Maccabi Healthcare Services announced on Thursday, after comparing its immunized members to a “diverse” control group of unvaccinated members …

Of the 523,000 people fully vaccinated, 544 were infected with COVID-19, of which 15 required hospitalization: eight are in mild condition, three in moderate condition and four in severe condition.

So, if you got both vaccines, you have approximately a 1,000 chance of being infected, a 35,000 chance of being sent to the hospital and a 130,000 chance of having a really worrying problem. And again, this is a sample that includes a large percentage of older and previously vulnerable people. The vaccine lifted the cloud of COVID over the heads of elderly Israelis.

So much so, that Israeli hospitals are now seeing more new patients under the age of 60 being hospitalized because of the disease than they are over 60:

An elderly person immunized in Israel has a stronger immune response to the coronavirus than a person under 60 who is not immunized, it seems. The graph on the right here also shows the age-related hospitalization curve beginning to change as vaccinations increase:

The obvious problem is that these data only tell us how effective mRNA vaccines are. Vaccines that are still in development, such as those from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax, use different means to trigger an immune response and have not reached 95 percent levels of effectiveness in clinical trials like Pfizer and Moderna. Biden’s pandemic advisers published a group article yesterday, however, warning people not to stick to effectiveness rates. It would be great if all vaccines were as effective as Pfizer’s in preventing infections, but when the time comes, no one cares about the infection. We worry about serious cases and deaths. A vaccine that didn’t stop you from getting sick, but * did * prevent you from having any worse symptoms than a cough and low fever for a few days, would be a great triumph, with the death toll rising to 500,000. And the good news, Biden’s aides say, is that all the major vaccines tested so far – all – have been 100% effective in preventing bad test results.

All seven COVID-19 vaccines that completed large trials of effectiveness – Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac – appear to be 100% effective for serious complications. No vaccinated person became ill enough to require hospitalization. Not a single vaccinated person died of COVID-19.

Not all infections are the same. People vaccinated against viruses are still occasionally infected. But thanks to an immune system prepared with a vaccine, infections never progress and make them seriously ill. The vaccine’s efficacy rates vary only in relation to the mild forms of COVID-19 disease. When it comes to the measures that really matter – hospitalizations and death – they are all functionally the same.

The reason the article was published was to encourage Americans not to wait for an mRNA vaccine if one is not available locally, once you are eligible to be vaccinated. People following the news on COVID already know that Pfizer and Moderna are extremely effective in preventing infections, while the Johnson & Johnson product, at least according to the trial data, is slightly less. Some will be tempted to ignore J&J for that reason, to wait until the mRNA products are back in stock. But this is a bad idea, like choosing to go to battle without a bulletproof vest because the vest model you prefer is currently sold out. When it comes time to push, any vest that stops the bullet is fine. And in the case of COVID, from what scientists can say so far, every “vest” that is on the market or will soon be fulfilling that task.

By the way, although Israel’s vaccination effort continues to advance, they have recently started to decline:

To some extent, this drop is a simple matter of having fewer unvaccinated people circulating at this point. But it also suggests that Israel ran into the outer limits of the skeptical part of the population about the vaccine. It is easy to immunize people quickly in the beginning if you have an efficient delivery system, as all enthusiasts will line up without needing an incentive. But they are through that group now. It’s time to start working on the fences to further boost the herd’s immunity.

Instead of an exit question, read this story about the FDA giving Green the go-ahead to include 14 doses of its vaccine in its vials instead of 10, a boost that will quickly increase delivery by 20 percent. That’s the good news. The bad news is that more doses in each bottle means more risk that the doses will be missed if the entire supply is not used within six hours of opening. Good luck to the next Dr. Gokal who ends up being fired and prosecuted for trying to do the right thing in that situation.

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