For Britain and Boris Johnson, 2021 begins with a new Covid challenge

Johnson faces a difficult – and politically precarious – balancing act, while he and his advisers seek to weigh public health risks and economic problems, while maintaining the support of voters tired of the pandemic. The prime minister has faced criticism both from those who say he is doing too little too late and from those who complain that he has gone too far with the restrictions and has seriously damaged the economy.

In an attempt to strike a middle ground, Mr. Johnson spent weeks publicly contesting calls for stricter blocking measures advocated by scientific advisers, before deciding to adopt them as a new and more contagious variant of the virus that spread quickly through country and hospitals. full of sick.

Throughout his tenure at Downing Street, Johnson always waited until the last minute to make high-risk decisions and used his political talent to sell them. This approach was worth it to unite its Conservative Party around Brexit and reach a new trade agreement with the European Union.

But critics say it was not very useful for him to deal with the virus, resulting in unnecessary delays, further disruption and public confusion. Britain, which recorded more than 75,000 deaths from Covid, is on track to have the worst death rate in Europe. It also suffered one of the biggest contractions in economic production. Savings at the end of the third quarter were 8.6% lower than in the previous year, a greater drop in production than France, Germany or Italy.

Last year, the Johnson government switched from considering a relatively non-intervention course to building herd immunity for a series of interventions of varying severity. There have also been other policy changes, from dispensing masks to endorsing them, from subsidizing meals in restaurants to banning dining out and increasing and reducing the number of people allowed at social gatherings.

Government officials say the pandemic’s strategy has been refined as understanding of the virus has improved. In the midst of all this, Johnson repeatedly said that locks should be used sparingly and as a last resort, pointing out the human costs involved.

Public approval of how Johnson handled the crisis has waned as political changes have increased. Currently, 36% of Britons approve of how the government is dealing with the pandemic, up from 72% in the spring, according to researcher YouGov. It is clear, however, that in the short term, at least, the British overwhelmingly support restrictions designed to curb the spread of the virus. A Savanta ComRes poll on Tuesday showed that 79% of Britons supported the blockade.

The next few months will be critical for the prime minister, said Robert Hayward, a conservative member of the House of Lords and researcher. The British government bet heavily on vaccines, approving them – and aiming to implant them – faster than any other western nation.

Johnson promised to vaccinate 13 million Britons most vulnerable to the virus by mid-February to pave the way for an end to pandemic restrictions. Around the same time, the economic impact of the trade deal he made with the EU last month will begin to be felt in Britain.

“Trials will be made at this stage,” said Hayward. “It is when the fog will dissipate.”

It will be difficult for Mr. Johnson to avoid blame for any failure. Unlike the United States, under Britain’s centralized system of government, prime ministers are responsible for both the nationalized health care system and the implementation of blocking rules across England.

A small but noisy libertarian group of conservative lawmakers has been pushing for restrictions to be lifted. In part in response to them, Mr. Johnson tried to keep the economy as open as possible, avoiding the most draconian restrictions and making £ 22 billion, the equivalent of $ 30 billion, available to finance a test and tracking system he now had poor performance.

Cushioning the blow for Mr. Johnson is Brexit. During the 2019 election, he acquired a new blue-collar Brexit support base that has so far proved to be loyal. “They are essentially willing to support Johnson regardless of his management of specific issues,” said Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent. Whether they remain that way will depend on how Mr. Johnson manages to revive the country’s post-industrial areas after Covid and Brexit.

Conservatives today remain on the same level – or in some polls slightly ahead – as the opposition Labor Party. And Mr. Johnson can be a persuasive politician.

“He is an expert at delighting audiences who might be angry with him,” said Matthew Flinders, a professor at the University of Sheffield. “So no, my feeling is that he is not going to take a big blow.” And the next election is four years from now.

Still, the past few weeks have been particularly turbulent. The discovery of a new variant of the virus in southern England, which scientists say is up to 70% more transmissible, combined with a loosening of government restrictions in some places during Christmas led to almost double infection rates in late December. . Data released on Tuesday showed that, in early January, one in 50 people in England had the virus.

Johnson introduced a three-tier system of restrictions in October, in an effort to contain the number of cases and at the same time limit the restrictions to the economy. With the increase in cases, he ordered a four-week block in England on 5 November.

According to a meter that measures the rigor of public health measures developed by the University of Oxford, the November blockade was somewhat less restrictive than the blockade imposed in the spring, during the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak. The indicator puts the severity of the November blockade at 75 on a 100-point scale, compared with almost 80 in March and April.

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The Google unit shows that the second block did not prevent people from traveling to the same extent as the first, which may have accelerated the spread of the variant.

In London and Kent, for example, two places where the new variant was consolidated, store visits were around 80% to 90% below the pre-pandemic standard in April, according to Google data. In November, the number of these trips was around 60% to 70% lower.

Scientists at Imperial College London, in a study published online on December 31, said their research suggests that the blocking measures in place in November were sufficient to control the older variants of the coronavirus, but not the most contagious version.

Despite worrying trends that emerged at Christmas, warnings from scientific advisers and images of ambulances lined up outside hospitals, Johnson on Sunday appeared on a chat program and advocated that elementary school children return to school in Monday.

On Monday, Mr. Johnson visited a hospital to celebrate the fact that the United Kingdom is the first country to launch the new vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC and the University of Oxford. He hinted that more restrictions would come. That night, advisers were preparing their speech to the nation: there would be a new blockade and schools would be closed.

“The next few weeks will be the most difficult, but I really believe that we are entering the last phase of the fight,” said Johnson.