Ron DeSantis would not be governor of Florida without Donald Trump.
The then president’s endorsement in 2018 turned a young congressman into the runaway winner of a Republican primary who featured a much more seasoned establishment favorite, Adam Putnam. Less than three years later, many in the party see DeSantis as the best positioned to continue Trump’s legacy as his national flagship in 2024.
It has been a rapid rise – and an even faster seesaw of political fortunes, considering where DeSantis’ reputation was at the start of the coronavirus crisis. He was ridiculed and questioned for rejecting mask mandates and reopening companies. His approach was compared unfavorably to other governors from both parties, including now-fought Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo of New York. The popularity of DeSantis in Florida has plummeted.
But Florida has, since the beginning of the pandemic, seen fewer cases and deaths from coronavirus per capita than many states, including many that have instituted the most restrictive measures. And DeSantis’ poll numbers are recovering a year before his candidacy for re-election. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey last month revealed that he had a job approval rating of 53%.
“I think he’s the favorite to be the next president,” if Trump doesn’t run again, said Joe Gruters, Florida state senator and president of the state’s Republican Party.
These statements cannot be dismissed as parochialism in a state where two other Republicans – Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott – nurture the White House’s ambitions. Nationally, the image is equally encouraging for DeSantis.
At last month’s Conservative Political Action Conference for Republican Party activists, he finished second, behind Trump, in a presidential poll and first in another, from which the former president was excluded. Recent research by Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s top researcher in 2016 and 2020, showed DeSantis and several others competing for second place in a field led by the former president and showed the governor tied with former vice president Mike Pence as the second choice among Trump supporters. Rubio and Scott were close to the last place.
“When you look under the hood of these numbers, DeSantis gains a lot of support from Trump voters in the absence of Trump,” said Fabrizio. “While the media beat him up while anti-Cuomo and DeSantis defended themselves, voters liked it. They associate this kind of fight and speak their minds with President Trump. He’s inheriting a lot of that.”
The allies say that DeSantis, who did not respond to requests for comment, appreciates an antagonistic relationship with a press that they believe has made him a Republican martyr, exactly the type who can position himself as heir to Trump’s mantle. Those who work in or around its political orbit insist that it is focused first in 2022, but recognize the temptations of 2024.
“Ron DeSantis quickly became the best-known Republican governor in the country, and I think that bodes well for his re-election and what he wants to do after that,” said Brad Herold, DeSantis campaign manager for 2018.
Donors outside of Florida are eager to enter the ground floor, said Nick Iarossi, a Tallahassee lobbyist and fund-raiser for DeSantis.
“I’ve been doing this for 20 years,” said Iarossi, “and you don’t normally have prominent donors from other states reaching out and saying, ‘Hey, how am I going to meet this guy? How can I support you? I think he will be president one day, and I want to meet him now. I want to support him in his 2022 election to ensure he wins if we need him to run in 2024. ‘”
DeSantis’ appeal is not limited to Trump’s diehards. His approval rating for the job in the Mason-Dixon poll was 59 percent among independents.
Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor whose moderate type of conservatism collapsed under Trumpism in the 2016 presidential primaries, rarely comments on politics these days. But in response to e-mail questions about DeSantis’ future, Bush praised.
“I’m out of the specialist market,” replied Bush, “but I’m a fan of Ron DeSantis.”
Not everyone is, of course. Only 15% of Democrats in the Mason-Dixon poll approved DeSantis’ performance. A Democratic group, Ron Be Gone, recently launched a campaign to press against his candidacy for re-election and to prevent him from becoming a strong candidate for 2024.
At 42, DeSantis, an Ivy League-educated Navy lawyer and Iraq War veteran, is the country’s youngest governor. He served for more than two terms in his Jacksonville area House seat and was prepared to run for the Senate in 2016 until Rubio failed as a presidential candidate and sought re-election. But even admirers describe DeSantis as a political loner. His 2018 victory was built more on Trump’s endorsement, for which he auditioned through appearances on Fox News, rather than the chicken dinner challenge that candidates normally need to run for. He has many followers, but few close advisers besides his wife, Casey.
“To run for state, he invested in that cable news profile,” said Matt Caldwell, a Republican who lost a close race to state agriculture commissioner in 2018. “Their relationships are different. If we go to a party meeting state, I’m going to see people I’ve volunteered with and I’ve slammed doors in the past few decades. “
DeSantis’ big victory in the primaries and the treatment of the pandemic won the embrace of the party’s faithful, Caldwell added. This week, the governor assembled a panel of scientists and medical professionals – including Dr. Scott Atlas, a former Trump pandemic adviser – who shares his opposition to mandates and restrictions. Democrats plan to make Covid-19 central to next year’s governor race. They point to their vaccine distribution program, which critics say favor rich donors. They also look at more than 32,000 coronavirus deaths and characterize DeSantis as someone who is coldly obsessed with comparative data that makes Florida look better than other states.
“Their arrogance and total detachment from the pain and suffering of our communities says a lot about someone who is in this position to promote their political ambitions, and it is obvious why they are already discussing 2024,” said Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former southern congressman. Florida and one of the leaders of the Ron Be Gone effort.
Supporters of DeSantis say they are sensitive to the death toll, but believe that DeSantis has made the right and difficult choices to keep the economy running.
“With all due respect to those who fell ill or died or know someone who has passed away, I think we were able to weather the storm without destroying people’s business and economic lives,” said Nelson Diaz, a former Republican lobbyist for the county’s GOP. Miami-Dade.
The Mason-Dixon poll found DeSantis with a substantial advantage over two Democrats who could run to challenge him: Congressman Charlie Crist, the former governor who used to be a Republican, and Nikki Fried, the state commissioner for agriculture and consumer services. And DeSantis is pushing for stricter postal voting rules before his run for a second term, a fight that could make him even more popular with supporters of a former president who falsely claims that the last election was stolen from him. Some Republicans who are friends with DeSantis have abandoned the caution they often preach in a state known for tight elections and are projecting confidence for 2022.
“I think this could be one of the easiest governor reelections we’ve seen in Florida in a long time,” said Blaise Ingoglia, state representative and former president of the state party.
“What people like in general is to stand up for what you believe in,” added Ingoglia. “Be a fighter, right? And that is why Ron DeSantis has become dear to Donald Trump’s base – a base that I predict will not go away.”