By Tal Axelrod
• New York City is gearing up for its run for mayor, with large numbers of Democrats and some Republicans competing before the June 22 primary.
The final winner of the mayoral race will take over a city in crisis that struggles with high levels of coronavirus infections, the economic consequences of the pandemic, the rise in crime and other problems.
The race has already brought together a number of candidates with a range of experiences looking to replace the mayor Bill de Blasio
Bill de BlasioCuomo faces growing scrutiny about deaths in nursing homes COVID-19 New York State warns hospitals that they should vaccinate employees before the elderly: report States are failing in big technology and privacy – Biden must take the lead MORE (D), whose supervision of the pandemic has been widely criticized. He is barred from running for the third consecutive term.
Among Democratic candidates running to secure a seat in the November 2 general election are ex-presidential candidates Andrew Yang
Andrew YangYang reaches donation requirements to get city funds in the race for mayor of New York Research points Yang with great advantage in the race for mayor of New York The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Democrats map way for approval of relief plan COVID-19 by Biden MORE, Brooklyn district president Eric Adams, city attorney Scott Stringer and ex-attorney for Blasio Maya Wiley.
Here are five things to watch for as the race unfolds.
How is the coronavirus
impacting the race?
The mayoral race looks unlike any other New York City in recent history. Retail policy has long been the basis of the campaign in the city’s five districts, with candidates often being seen fighting with voters outside stores, on street corners and at local events to gain name recognition and support.
However, this was drastically reduced during the coronavirus pandemic, a change that was emphasized when Yang announced earlier this month that he tested positive for the virus and would cancel his personal activities.
“They can’t do what they always did,” said longtime Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf.
“New York is a place where people campaign, go to the subway, stay outside the bus lines, restaurants. It is a kind of very outdoor environment, where people are much more involved in a very personal way with the candidates. And part of the decision making process to decide who the mayor is is to see who has the most physical pain, getting up early in the morning, arriving at the latest at night and being seen at more stops. ”
Coronavirus can also impact voter turnout, given the seriousness with which the pandemic has hit the area.
Local elections in the city have historically been affected by low voter turnout, with turnout sometimes not even reaching 20%.
But observers suggest that the severity of the pandemic, in addition to an expanded early voting period, could readjust this political calculation.
“The most difficult thing to do is to get someone who doesn’t normally participate in the local primary elections to start caring or thinking that their vote is important, so I think that’s the biggest factor. Will COVID be serious enough to take a much broader group of New Yorkers to the polls? Asked Kathryn Wylde, who heads the Partnership for New York City.
What change do people look for in de Blasio?
De Blasio’s management of the city has been widely criticized in recent years, and criticism only increased during the coronavirus pandemic.
Its approval rating is below 50%, according to an October survey. A Democrat who ran in 2020 even used Blasio as a counterpoint, even calling him “the worst mayor in the history of New York City”.
“Public opinion data say that Bill de Blasio would have a hard time winning even a significant portion of the city’s constituency if he could run again,” Sheinkopf said.
Wylde said voters are mainly looking for a candidate who can come up with the kind of clear plan to tackle the pandemic that de Blasio has struggled to articulate.
“Political pronouncements just don’t solve the problems, and I think people have seen this happen in this very serious situation, when we have a different solution each day, depending on the political winds at the moment,” she said.
Can Yang maintain his initial favorite position?
Yang, who achieved national prominence during his surprisingly strong presidential campaign, is a favorite in the Democratic primaries, with a poll earlier this month showing a big advantage over his competitors.
He is by far the best-known candidate in the race, with 84% of respondents saying they have heard of him. Stringer is the second best-known candidate, with 66% name recognition.
Now comes the hard part for Yang: maintaining his favorite status.
While the entrepreneur maintains an expansive social media presence and fiercely loyal followers, he steps out of the gate with initial gaffes. Among other things, he fumbled with answers about why he lived in his suburban home during the pandemic and why he did not vote in the 2000 and 2012 presidential elections or in all mayoral elections in New York City between 2001 and 2017 .
In addition to these mistakes, Yang also lacks government experience at a time when voters can count on a firm hand to get them out of the pandemic.
“I think it will be very difficult for those who do not have a record in the public service and intimate knowledge of the city to convince voters that they are the manager that the city needs. So I think there is a built-in advantage for those who have been in the government, that people know before the pandemic and they know it in their community setting, not just because of an expanded appearance, ”said Wylde.
Voter familiarity with other candidates is also likely to increase as more campaign ads hit the air.
“Andrew Yang’s name recognition advantage vanishes overnight when the air war begins,” said Eric Phillips, a former spokesman for de Blasio. “Can he continue to lead a race as long as voters get to know the other candidates? I am skeptical. ”
What is the role of voting by choice of classification in the primary?
New York City is using ranking voting in the mayoral primary for the first time this year. This means that if no candidate gets 50% or more of the votes in the first round, subsequent choices are taken into account until a candidate comes up with a majority of the votes.
This could result in fewer negative attacks for fear of alienating another candidate’s supporters and even leading to unusual alliances.
“People will make deals to find out how to support each other to get to the first and second place,” said Sheinkopf.
Candidates who are better established in city politics can benefit from the new system.
“I think the ranking vote suggests that candidates most familiar with their background in popular New York politics will benefit from a situation where people can say, ‘Well, this candidate, I saw their ad and they really appealed to me I’ll put them first, but I think it’s a safe bet to vote for another candidate who has a long-term record in public service and who I know has never done anything outrageous, he’s a decent human being, whatever, ‘”Wylde said.
Does a Republican stand a chance in the general election?
The short answer is: almost never.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly 7 to 1 in the city, and their blue tones deepened during the Trump administration. Outside Staten Island, Republican victories in the city have been increasingly scarce.
Wylde said that a Republican would not stand a chance “unless there is an event that shakes the world.” When asked to clarify, she said that only an event of the same magnitude as the 9/11 terrorist attacks could shake up the race enough to give a Republican a real chance.
Sheinkopf was more blunt: “A Republican who runs must save his money and buy a home.”