The Theory of Everything – a comprehensive hypothetical framework that explains all physical phenomena in our universe – is, for now, just a theory. Modern science has discovered a great deal about general relativity and quantum mechanics, but a single interconnecting force that unites everything in the universe remains just an idea. Impossible? Many, including the late Stephen Hawking, believe so. In the NFL world, however, the idea of everything being connected is not so implausible. Everything a team does has an impact on the 31 other teams in the league. Which brings us to the first domino of what will be an off-season that will change the league: switching Matt Stafford from Lions to Rams.
Stafford’s dismissal in this off-season was predictable after the team and quarterback agreed to part ways. Where Detroit sent him was not. But the deal will have ramifications for an off-season of the NFL that is on its way to an extraordinary amount of quarterback moves. With that in mind, these are the five issues that still persist after the negotiation:
What does this mean for Deshaun Watson’s business value?
If that wasn’t the first question that popped into your brain when Stafford’s news broke, it was probably the second. Detroit’s acquisition was ostensibly the rescue of a king. The Rams exchanged two future choices in the first round, their choice in the third round this year, and quarterback Jared Goff in exchange for Stafford, a consistently above average QB that turns 33 this month.
The Rams were also not shorn – that was the market rate. Detroit is said to have had more than half a dozen suitors offering at least one choice in the first round, and Lions considered The Los Angeles package to be the best. Per Sports illustratedfrom Albert Breer, the Panthers offered this year’s number. 8 pick (!!!) and a later selection; Washington offered this year’s no. 19 choice and a choice of the third round; the Colts offered a pack of picks and players, but not this year’s not. 21 pick; and the Broncos offered an “exchange of choice” equivalent to “a final choice of the first round”.
Stafford scored the first two times and Goff is a bigger return than anyone expected, but not much. If any team hoped to get Watson for a modest purchase, that hope is gone. Never before has a 25-year-old QB in the top five been traded. Never! And based on GM Texans Nick Caserio’s public stance of having “zero interest” in negotiating Watson, Houston is unlikely to part with him for anything less than a monstrous offer. (Which may come as a surprise, considering that Texans, under their previous regime, spent two seasons away being duped in negotiations.)
Watson’s market should have commanded a minimum of three or four choices in the first round, which would still be a bargain. That is why the Jets, Dolphins and Jaguars are currently the three most attractive business partners for Texans, as my colleague Riley McAtee recently observed. Watson’s prohibition on trading clause means that he can veto any deal, so he is not limited to these three teams. But any other team interested in acquiring Watson will have to pay much to catch it. All the Stafford deal did was to warm up their “HOW MUCH CHANGED ???” reactions.
What does this mean for teams that lost the Stafford draw?
There were “seven or eight teams” bidding Stafford, according to The Athleticis Chris Burke. The Rams won. The teams that Sports illustrated reported having varied interests: Colts, Football Team, Panthers, 49ers, Patriots, Jets, Bears and Broncos. Some of these teams need Stafford because they don’t have a returning player; others saw it as an upgrade over existing options. All of them will now have to look elsewhere in this off-season.
Let’s start with the three on their way to losing their 2020 holders to free agency or retirement: Patriots, Football Team and Colts. New England has the highest choice of the three (No. 15) and is not expected to bring Cam Newton back after a year. But the Patriots draft choice is too low for the team to feel confident that they will be able to arrest one of the top three candidates, not Trevor Lawrence QB. We’re going to approach the Niners momentarily, but it would be really crazy for New England and Bill Belichick, with his heaps of space, to buy with Jimmy Garoppolo, who was San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan not committed to at the end of the season? This may make sense. The Patriots are likely to chase a veteran after losing the Stafford race before it starts. At this point in Belichick’s career, why would he want to develop a newbie instead of an immediate starting caliber player?
Washington has no. 19 chose and rocked in Detroit in search of Stafford. Colts have no. 21 chose and did not. Both teams are in similar positions, with excellent saves and intriguing lineups – but big holes in the center. Do Stafford’s efforts reveal something about how aggressive anyone will be in pursuing a QB option? Indianapolis was considered one of the early favorites to land the longtime Lion after it was reported that he wanted to leave Detroit, but the Colts did not go all-in to arrest Stafford, who was one of the top three or four veteran QB options in the the market. A Frank Reich – Carson Wentz meeting it’s still on the table. But it is intriguing that Indianapolis has not been more aggressive.
The Football Team did its best and made mistakes, but like the Patriots, it’s in no-man’s-land when it comes to the draft’s best QB chances. In addition, Alex Smith, 36, is the only QB hired. Washington has an impressive core that can help the team compete sooner or later, but without a constant presence behind the center, there is a limit to what can be accomplished in 2021.
Stafford’s chase by the Broncos, Panthers and Niners makes it clear that none of these teams believe they have their franchise caller. Carolina offered the eighth choice to get Stafford instead of waiting to try to grab a QB in the draft or stay with Teddy Bridgewater for another year. Denver likes his young core, but Drew Lock’s time may be coming to an end after just his second season, which saw him lead the league in interceptions, despite playing only 13 games. And, as mentioned earlier, Shanahan is not committed to Garoppolo, who has been injured too often to make a consistent difference, let alone elevate the attack when he is healthy. Each of these teams has a QB that can be traded to acquire assets in order to move up the draft or negotiate for another beginner, if a trading partner is willing to make an exchange.
The Bears, in turn, “got in touch” with Detroit, so they were not serious candidates for getting Stafford. This shouldn’t be too surprising, given the divisional rivalry between these two teams. But Chicago must try to overcome its distressing situation in QB; like Washington and Indy, the choice of Bears (No. 20) is too low in the first round to be used in a QB star prospect. In the meantime, the Jets also didn’t go far in the Stafford negotiations, nor should they. New York could realistically chase Watson or settle for Justin Fields of Ohio State or Zach Wilson of BYU with the second choice of the draft.
What does this mean for NFC West?
NFC West may have been the fool’s gold in some ways last season. Despite appearing to be the toughest division in the NFL for most of the year, only two teams made it to the playoffs and both were eliminated by the divisional round. But the Rams assured that they will once again be in discussion for the crown. With Goff, LA had the lowest floor and roof among NFC West’s initial QBs. Stafford now offers a much higher potential QB option and makes the Rams an NFC contender.
No team at NFC West is in deep reconstruction or turning to a new coach, something that cannot be said about any other division in the NFL. It is an arms race, not only to reach the playoffs, but to stand out as a potential team of the caliber of the Super Bowl. The Rams, who defiantly continue to trade choices in the first round, extended their window for at least another season by adding Stafford.
What does this mean for the other QBs available on the market?
ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently tweeted he would bet on 18 teams exchanging QBs this offseason. Stafford is the first big domino to fall, but there is more on the horizon. The other main names available – Watson and Dak Prescott of the Cowboys – are currently in jail or can be branded by franchise (again). This means that everyone is competing for leftovers, and the game of musical chairs may take some time to resolve.
Newton, Jacoby Brissett, Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Mullens, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Mike Glennon and Brandon Allen are all free agents this season. The 49ers, Broncos and Panthers are not tied to Garoppolo, Lock or Bridgewater. It is not yet clear whether the Eagles are with Wentz. The Steelers are likely to reinstate Ben Roethlisberger’s contract to maintain it, but they may also decide that it’s time for an upgrade. Jets coach Robert Saleh publicly gave Sam Darnold a vote of confidence, but there is no guarantee that New York will stay with him. The only thing certain when entering the off-season is that your favorite team will not acquire Aaron Rodgers, because the Packers know it would be stupid to let him go. There are a multitude of QB options, but there is still not much clarity about where most of them will go. It wouldn’t be shocking if most of the off-season quarterback plays took place at the same time, because as teams begin to realize that their options are limited, there is pressure to make an acquisition to avoid completely losing the best options available. In comparison to the deals that will soon be made for some of the passers-by listed above, Stafford’s trade and Watson’s potential move are equivalent to Halley’s Comet; the other movements are a common meteor shower – still surprising, but to a much lesser degree.
What does this mean for this year’s draft?
With Goff going to Detroit, Lions seem unlikely to use no. 7 choose a quarterback. If one of the first four QB candidates – Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Trey Lance from the state of North Dakota – falls beyond them, that would open the door for the Panthers (choice # 8), Broncos (# 9), Giants (# 11 ) or 49ers (No. 12)? Detroit could also increase its range of draft options by trading down from no. 7, especially if a team below them covets a slipping quarterback.
In addition, without a typical off-season period to evaluate other QBs, such as Mac Jones from Alabama (initially listed as Danny Kelly’s prospectus No. 32) and Kyle Trask from Florida, teams may have a harder time understanding the possible QBs they still have. are not on top of the project boards. Will teams determine that it is worth investing in a young caller right from the start, when there are veteran options – even medium ones – that can be immediately connected? And will the teams that select the best QBs determine that they should put them in the game immediately or give them time to develop? Stafford’s move to Rams certainly plays a role in how teams left out will approach the process.