From then on, Cuomo’s popularity grew, as did his political colleagues, California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, and then President Donald Trump, a Republican.
But just as history has repeatedly shown us, a year has turned out to be a lifetime in their political careers. They have all been defeated or are fighting for their political lives.
Cuomo, Newsom and Trump experienced classic examples of a rally event. When a crisis arises, voters give their main politicians strengths in the polls. These bumps rarely last – a lesson that all three politicians have now learned.
Cuomo was probably seen as the greatest hero of the early days of the pandemic. He gave daily press conferences that became mandatory television for many. He even wrote a book on leadership.
Cuomo’s popularity grew a lot, and there was even talk of him running for president. In an April 2020 Siena College survey, Cuomo’s favorable rating jumped to 77%. Just two months earlier, his favorable rating had been 44% – an insignificant figure for a Democrat from a blue state.
His favorable rating dropped to 57% in January 2021, after Covid-19 cases rose again in New York.
Then, a wave of political disasters hit Cuomo. In the past few weeks, there have been reports that its top advisers have allegedly altered the data to hide a greater number of deaths among state nursing home residents.
Most prominently, Cuomo is dealing with several allegations of inappropriate behavior towards women. The attorney general’s office is investigating the allegations and the president of the state assembly has allowed an impeachment investigation to begin. Many state and federal officials are asking Cuomo to step down.
The results of the polls, before some of the most recent allegations made by women and resignations, were very bad for Cuomo.
His favorable rating dropped to 44% and only 36% of voters want him to run for re-election, according to a March Quinnipiac University poll.
The only good news for Cuomo is that the majority of Democrats (60%) have a favorable view of the governor, a small majority (50%) wants him to run again in 2022 and only 21% wants him to step down.
If those numbers remain in a state as democratic as New York, Cuomo could survive the scandals.
Things look better for their West Coast counterpart. Newsom is not facing this type of opposition from its own party. Still, it has been a rough political road for the governor of California.
California was one of the first states hit by the pandemic, and most voters applauded Newsom’s response. His approval rating among likely voters in the California Institute of Public Policy polls reached 64% in May 2020. That was 52% in February 2020 and 49% in January 2020.
Newsom, however, has been criticized for how it handled business and school blockades and reopens over the past year.
He now faces a recall effort, which could reach the vote. At that point, the recall would probably not be successful, even if it reached voters.
Still, the fact that Newsom is facing a recall and its average approval rating is around 50% now is not a good position for a Democrat in California.
Of course, Cuomo and Newsom are in better political shape than Trump. Although Trump ended up losing the election, at least in part because of his response to the pandemic, voters actually gathered around him early on.
Trump’s approval rating jumped to 40 degrees in a series of polls in late March 2020. A plurality of Americans have endorsed their way of dealing with the crisis in several polls.
Trump, however, was seen as having a terrible job in dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic. His press conferences were widely criticized.
In the summer, Trump’s overall approval rating dropped to 40 degrees. He constantly does not know who would handle the pandemic better than Democrat Joe Biden, who is now president.
In fact, Trump may well have won the elections without the pandemic. His approval rating in the economy was better than that of any of the competitors who had lost in the past 45 years before him.
Unfortunately for Trump, crises can dramatically change political winds. After a year of pandemic, these winds blow against Cuomo, Newsom and Trump.
