If something seemed wrong in choosing Gonzaga Bulldogs and Baylor Bears for the national championship of his March Madness 2021 bracket on selection Sunday, it’s just because the NCAA tournament traditionally gives us a lot of surprises. (UCLA’s near-failure on Saturday night was yet another reminder.) It can’t have been because someone doubted the skills of the Zags or Bears, the two best teams in the country in November (and perhaps even in November 2019) that will finally go will meet for the national championship on Monday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Perhaps that canceled meeting between the two teams on December 5 was a blessing in disguise – we will see Mark Few’s team and Scott Drew’s team meet for all the balls.
Before Monday night’s game, ESPN.com’s college basketball team of Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi came together to discuss the historical implications of Gonzaga vs. Baylor, the way forward for the Houston and UCLA teams that defeated Saturday Night’s Final Four and the most anticipated player clashes in Monday’s Indy championship. Follow this link to see the national championship tips time on Monday and visit here to check your March Madness key or your second chance March Madness key.
It is Gonzaga x Baylor for the national championship, the rare case in which the two best unquestionable teams in the country reach the final stage of college basketball. What are the historical implications of 1 vs. 2 – are you ready to evaluate where this confrontation is classified in history, or at least in recent history?
Medcalf: This seems somewhat unique, because we are watching a match that could have been played last year if the NCAA tournament had not been canceled. Since November 8, 2019, Baylor has lost just five games. Gonzaga lost two in that stretch. On paper, I think it rivals the 2017 UNC-Gonzaga showdown, based on its position in the current hierarchy of the game.
After Kansas beat Ohio State in the Final Four in 2012, I think we all agree that the Jayhawks deserved their chance in Kentucky. But we didn’t have a lot of success over two years for a championship clash this season. Corey Kispert and Joel Ayayi were strong players for Gonzaga a year ago and Drew Timme ended the 2019-20 season with a series of impressive matches. Jared Butler and MaCio Teague returned to pursue the title this season. A tournament led by two teams anchored by key players from last season’s top teams only amplifies preparation for Monday’s game. It is a rare thing in the age of one and done. These are not just the two best teams this season. They are the two most dominant programs in the past two years.
Borzello: I think the confrontation I heard back would be the 2005 national championship game between Illinois and North Carolina. Illinois started the season with 29 consecutive wins and then won the Big Ten tournament before reaching the national championship, while North Carolina suffered four pre-tournament defeats, but was there with Illinois above the rest of the country in the metrics. The difference between these two teams and Gonzaga and Baylor is that we knew they would both be elite before the season, they lived up to expectations during the regular season and then moved on to the title game. So I think the confrontation rate is a little bit higher than that of 2005.
Gonzaga, for me, is a good team generationally, and if we take out the post-COVID break fights, Baylor is not far behind. Baylor has been 53-6 in the past two seasons, Gonzaga is 62-2 – and I think there is a chance of having two unbeaten teams facing each other in the title game if it weren’t for the break. This must be the best confrontation in the role of recent history.
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Baylor’s Davion Mitchell scores a 3-point basket to end the first half that got him and his teammates excited.
Gasaway: We don’t usually have clear distinctions between the top two and all the other teams in the country and, of course, going to the 2021 tournament, the AP survey said the “top two” meant Gonzaga and Illinois. But the tournament itself defines who the best teams really are, and the Bulldogs and Baylor are clearly the Division I class. Regarding the precedents of this century or immediately adjacent to it, North Carolina vs. Gonzaga in 2017 comes to mind , as well as Duke vs. Wisconsin in 2015, Kansas vs. 2008 Memphis, Florida vs. Ohio State in 2007, North Carolina vs. Illinois in 2005 and UConn vs. Duke in 1999. All of those title games put two No. 1 seeds, and, with just one or two small exceptions, they were all close in the final minutes. Fasten your belt, this should be great.
Lunardi: With all due respect, but the NCAA tournament rarely determines the best team in a given season. This gives us a worthy champion, to be sure, but the idea of ”better” is more elusive. Yet. Gonzaga and Baylor have been on a collision course since not playing in December, and now they will decide on a worthy champion and the best team. The only thing better would be better than seven.
The road ended for the Houston and UCLA teams that had impressive races in this tournament. Who do you think has a better chance of returning to the Final Four earlier, the Cougars or the Bruins?
Borzello: UCLA – and I think the Bruins will be chosen as a candidate for the Final Four when we start thinking about the early 2021-22 standings. Mick Cronin could bring back all the players on this year’s team, assuming Chris Smith decides to come back after tearing up his ACL in the middle of the season and Johnny Juzang not entering the NBA draft. The Bruins also bring in five-star contender Peyton Watson, who is expected to make an immediate impact and provide some insurance in case one of the two mentioned players decides to leave – or someone surprisingly transfers.
Houston could take a step back with DeJon Jarreau’s expected matches and a few attack pieces, while Quentin Grimes could also head for the NBA. With Kelvin Sampson in charge and the way the Cougars defend, they should be ranked in the top 25 of the preseason, but another Final Four seems overkill.
Gasaway: Last famous words here, but the Bruins seem to reach the sweet spot “they will be highly rated next season”. Mick Cronin has a Final Four team with zero seniors and also no players currently listed in the top 100 of the NBA draft ESPN ranking. In Houston, Jarreau is a senior and has been Cougars’ main defender and by far his best distributor. Jarreau will be difficult to replace.
Lunardi: It’s easy to see UCLA as one of the top 10 teams in the preseason next season, with Houston closer to “others getting votes”. Of course, UCLA has already proven that rankings and sowing mean almost nothing when it comes to moving forward in March (or even in April). I have no idea who will be the next to reach any Final Four, but it is fair to say that the UCLA program is in an overall better position than Houston to schedule a return appointment.
Medcalf: I think UCLA, especially if Juzang comes back and Smith recovers from his knee injury at the end of the season. The Bruins can take advantage of the momentum of this race and build on it. I think it also improves the recruitment scenario for Mick Cronin’s program. “You can win a national title at UCLA” has not been a real thing in basketball for more than a decade. Now it’s real. This is an incredible achievement in the second season for any coach.
But the UCLA brand, in good times, is powerful and supporters of that program are waiting for yet another opportunity to support a candidate for the national title. But I also think Kelvin Sampson can make Houston a hub for multiple transfers on the portal. Jarreau and Grimes have just taken Houston to their first participation in the national semifinals in 37 years. I think the two teams will be competitive in the years to come.
We will save the score predictions for Monday, but what is the head-to-head match you most expect in the national championship?
Borzello: Jalen Suggs against Davion Mitchell. Suggs is one of the NBA’s top five draft contenders and has established himself as a truly special player, while Mitchell has increased his stock by as much as anyone in the NCAA tournament. Mitchell tends to defend the opposing team’s best scorer, and Suggs fits in. He made life difficult for all types of perimeter players throughout the season, most recently Moses Moody and Quentin Grimes. Suggs has next-level speed and explosiveness, however, and will provide a completely different problem for Mitchell. At the other end, Suggs’ physicality can overwhelm opponents at times, and he will likely take the chance to slow Mitchell down – assuming he is not protecting Jared Butler.
Gasaway: Give me Mitchell vs. Suggs again and again and again. I just wanted this to be a series of seven games. Both players are designed for 2021 lottery picks on ESPN.com, and both give their already great teams an entirely new dimension. The funny thing about my perfect little hypothetical combination, though, is that sometimes wishes don’t come true. Mitchell is unlikely to protect Suggs exclusively and, in fact, I will be very interested to see how Scott Drew uses his defensive talent. I wouldn’t be too surprised, for example, to see Mitchell spending some quality time attributed to Andrew Nembhard. The Florida transfer leads his team in minutes during the tournament, often has the ball in his hands in the midfield and was praised by Mark Few as one of the best players he has ever had in pick and roll.
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After UCLA’s Cody Riley is blocked at the edge, Drew Timme plays two-handed jam on the other end.
Lunardi: Definitely Mitchell at Suggs. Can’t you just see the veteran chasing the freshman in the last possession of a drawn game? It’s not quite Bird and Magic, but we will see them both on an NBA stage for a long, long time.
Medcalf: My colleagues are right. But I think Mark Vital and Baylor’s post-defenses against Drew Timme can decide the game. Throughout the season, we heard the same question about Baylor: are the Bears of sufficient size and skill to defeat a team built like Gonzaga? Vital is an important player for Scott Drew. He’s six feet tall with a lot of Chuck Hayes in his game. He’s so strong physically that bigger players never put pressure on him. If Timme is dominant and Drew has to find a way to send more help, it will create more space for the rest of Gonzaga’s game creators. It could also mean that he has to get Matthew Mayer into the game earlier. Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua will also be critical in this game. But if Vital & Co. manages to face America’s best player, it will change the game. Timme will see some defenders on Monday. It may not be the sexiest showdown in the game, but it is arguably the most important.