WATCH: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporteraward columnist Scott Feinberg reflects his best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, no your personal preferences. He reaches this classification based on consultations with voters and strategists, marketing and campaign analysis, results of awards that precede the Oscar and the Oscar history itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* BEST PHOTO *
Frontrunners
Nomadland (Spotlight)
The Chicago Trial 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Mank (Netflix)
Promising young woman (Focus)
One night in miami (Amazonas)
Metal sound (Amazonas)
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey (Netflix)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The father (Sony classics)
Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Soul (Pixar)
World News (Universal)
Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazonas)
Palm Springs (Hulu / Neon)
Never seldom sometimes always (Focus)
Long Shots
Principle (Warner Bros.)
Another round (Samuel Goldwyn)
First cow (A24)
* BEST DIRECTOR *
Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Emerald Fennell (Promising young woman)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Aaron Sorkin (The Chicago Trial 7) – podcast
Major Threats
Regina King (One night in miami) – podcast
Darius Marder (Metal sound)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) – podcast
Possibilities
George C. Wolfe (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey)
Florian Zeller (The father)
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Long Shots
Paul Greengrass (World News) – podcast
Christopher Nolan (Principle)
Kelly Reichardt (First cow)
* BEST ACTOR *
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey) – podcast
Riz Ahmed (Metal sound) – podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) – podcast
Great Threats
Steven Yeun (Minari) – podcast
Ben Affleck (The way back) – podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) – podcast
Tom Hanks (World News) – podcast [one and two]
Possibilities
Mads Mikkelsen (Another round)
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
John David Washington (Malcolm and Marie)
Long Shots
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One night in miami)
Eli Goree (One night in miami)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising young woman) – podcast
Viola Davis (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of woman)
Andra’s Day (United States x Billie Holiday)
Major Threats
Sophia Loren (Life ahead) – podcast
Yeri Han (Minari)
Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie)
Possibilities
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
Michelle Pfeiffer (French exit) – podcast
Sidney Flanigan (Never seldom sometimes always)
Long Shots
Meryl Streep (Let everyone talk) – podcast
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) – podcast [one and two]
Julia Garner (The assistant) – podcast
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR *
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) – podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Chicago Trial 7) – podcast
Leslie Odom Jr. (One night in miami) – podcast
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Paul Raci (Metal sound)
Major Threats
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Jared Leto (The little things)
Bill Murray (On the rocks)
Possibilities
Aldis Hodge (One night in miami)
Glynn Turman (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey)
Colman Domingo (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey)
Long Shots
Will Patton (Minari)
Bo Burnham (Promising young woman) – podcast
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS *
Frontrunners
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) – podcast
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The father) – podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) – podcast
Major Threats
Helena Zengel (World News)
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Olivia Cooke (Metal sound)
Possibilities
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of woman)
Talia Ryder (Never seldom sometimes always)
Long Shots
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) – podcast
* BEST ADAPTED ROUTER *
Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One night in miami (Powers of Kemp)
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
The father (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller)
First cow (Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt)
Major Threats
World News (Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass) – podcast [Greengrass]
Life ahead (Ugo Chiti and Edoardo Ponti) – podcast [Ponti]
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja and Dan Swimer) – podcast [Cohen]
Possibilities
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)
The white tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
David Copperfield’s personal story (Armando Iannucci)
Emma (Eleanor Catton)
Long Shots
Let it Go (Thomas Bezucha)
I’m thinking about ending things (Charlie Kaufman) – podcast
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)
* BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY *
Frontrunners
The Chicago Trial 7 (Aaron Sorkin) – podcast
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising young woman (Emerald Fennell)
Metal sound (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder and Darius Marder)
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Major Threats
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers)
Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee) – podcast [Lee]
Never seldom sometimes always (Eliza Hittman)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas)
Possibilities
The forty-year-old version (Radha on white)
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)
On the rocks (Sofia Coppola)
Long Shots
Malcolm and Marie (Sam Levinson)
Another round (Tobias Lindholm and Thomas Vinterberg)
Principle (Christopher Nolan)
* BEST DOCUMENTARY RESOURCE *
Frontrunners
Time (Amazonas)
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Collective (Magnolia / Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony classics)
Rest of the list
Dick Johnson is dead (Netflix)
My octopus teacher (Netflix)
76 days (MTV)
Boys State (Apple)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
MLK / FBI (IFC)
All In: The struggle for democracy (Amazonas)
Gunda (Neon)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
Night (Super LTD)
* BEST INTERNATIONAL RESOURCE *
Frontrunners
Another round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
Two of us (France)
One sun (Taiwan)
I’m not here anymore (Mexico)
Rest of the list
Dear comrades! (Russia)
Night of kings (Costa do Marfim)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Have hope (Norway)
Sun Children (Will)
Better days (Hong Kong)
The man who sold his skin (Tunisia)
* BEST ANIMATED FEATURE *
Frontrunners
Soul (Pixar)
Wolfwalkers (Apple TV + / GKIDS)
About the Moon (Netflix)
Forward (Pixar)
A film by Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Major Threats
The Croods: A New Age (DreamWorks)
Scissors and the witch (GKIDS)
The Willoughbys (Netflix)
Trolls: world tour (Universal)
Possibilities
Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Mugen Train (Funimation)
On-Gaku: Our Sound (GKIDS)
Lupine III: the first (GKIDS)
* BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY *
Frontrunners
Mank
Nomadland
World News
Principle
Minari
Major Threats
The Chicago Trial 7
One night in miami
Judas and the Black Messiah
First cow
Possibilities
Mulan
Da 5 Bloods
Promising young woman
Long Shots
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
I’m thinking about ending things
The Midnight Sky
* BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Mank
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
Emma
World News
Promising young woman
Major Threats
The Glories
Ammonite
Mulan
Possibilities
United States x Billie Holiday
David Copperfield’s personal story
One night in miami
Long Shots
Birds of prey
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Chicago Trial 7
* BEST MOVIE EDITION *
Frontrunners
Metal sound
The Chicago Trial 7
World News
Nomadland
Mank
Major Threats
Principle
Promising young woman
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
Possibilities
One night in miami
Minari
Da 5 Bloods
Long Shots
The father
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Midnight Sky
* BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLE *
Frontrunners
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
One night in miami
Mank
Emma
Pinocchio
Rest of the list
Hillbilly Elegy
Birds of prey
The little things
The Glories
Jingle Jangle: a Christmas journey
* BEST ORIGINAL SCORE *
Frontrunners
Soul
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Principle
World News
Rest of the list
Minari
Da 5 Bloods
The Chicago Trial 7
Ammonite
The invisible man
Mulan
Life ahead
The little things
Jingle Jangle: a Christmas journey
Blizzard of Souls
* BEST ORIGINAL SONG *
Frontrunners
“Speak Now” (One night in miami)
“Never Break” (Giving Voice)
“Listen to my voice” (The Chicago Trial 7)
“Turntables” (All In: The struggle for democracy)
“Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
Rest of the list
“Fight for you” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Io Si (visa)” (Life ahead)
“Wuhan Flu” (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
“Show me your soul” (Mr. Alma!)
“See what you’ve done” (Beast’s belly)
“Loyal Brave True” (Mulan)
“Rain Song” (Minari)
“Green” (Metal sound)
“Free” (The Only Ivan)
“Make it work” (Jingle Jangle: a Christmas journey)
* BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN *
Frontrunners
Mank
Principle
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
World News
The Midnight Sky
Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah
One night in miami
The Chicago Trial 7
David Copperfield’s personal story
Possibilities
Mulan
United States x Billie Holiday
Emma
Long Shots
The prom the father
Ammonite
Jingle Jangle: a Christmas journey
* BEST SOUND *
Frontrunners
Metal sound
Mank
World News
Principle
Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
Major Threats
Soul
The Chicago Trial 7
The Midnight Sky
United States x Billie Holiday
The prom
Possibilities
One night in miami
Judas and the Black Messiah
Nomadland
The Outpost
The invisible man
* BEST VISUAL EFFECTS *
Frontrunners
Principle
Mank
The Midnight Sky
The Only Ivan
Welcome to Chechnya
Rest of the list
Soul
Mulan
Birds of prey
Bloodshot
Love and monsters
* BEST SHORT ANIMATED *
Frontrunners
If anything happens I love you
Yes-people
The snail and the whale
Outside
Kapaemahu
Rest of the list
To Gerard
Opera
Play
Genius Loci
Outside
* BEST DOCUMENTARY SUMMARY *
Frontrunners
A concert is a conversation
A love song for Latasha
Hysterical girl
Colette
What would Sophia Loren do?
Rest of the list
Don’t Divide
Abortion helpline, this is Lisa
Call Center Blues
Hunger Wing
The Speed Cubers
* BEST SHORT LIVE ACTION *
Frontrunners
Two Distant Strangers
The human voice
Feeling through
The van
The Letter Room
Rest of the list
White eye
Da Yie
Bittu
The gift
The Kicksled Choir