Fact check: Biden’s first press conference as president

Here is a check of some of the claims he made.

Defending his approach to migration on the southern border, Biden said that “we are sending back the vast majority of families that are arriving”.

Facts first: This did not happen in February, the last month for which we have complete data.

The Customs and Border Protection data published in February show that 7,915 migrants who were part of a “family unit” on the southwest border were expelled under the Title 42 pandemic expulsion policy – about 41% of the 19,246 family unit members who were in “meetings” with US officials that month.

At another point in the press conference, Biden said, “The overwhelming majority of people who come to the border and cross the border are being sent back.” This is a fair statement about what happened in February, when almost 72% of the total of 100,441 people found at the border – in other words, not just members of the family unit – were expelled under Title 42.

Preliminary data for this month through March 17, which were analyzed by CNN, showed that the percentage of people evicted under Title 42 had dropped substantially since February. In the week ending March 17, 53% of the 34,526 people found on the southwestern border were expelled, the lowest percentage of a week in 2021 to date. CNN did not analyze preliminary March data specifically on evictions from families.

Obstruction statistics

Biden said there were five times more motions to break the obstruction in 2020 than there were between 1917 and 1971.

“Between 1917 and 1971, the obstruction existed, there were a total of 58 motions to break an obstruction. All this time. Last year alone there were five times more,” said Biden.

Facts first: Although obstruction experts say it is difficult even for them to identify the number per year, Biden’s numbers are misleading. In 2020, the number of motions tabled to end a debate in the Senate – a proxy measure for the use of obstruction – was about twice, and not five times, the number from 1917 to 1971.

Molly Reynolds, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution who studied the obstruction, previously told CNN that most scholars think the best proxy measure is the number of motions tabled for closure, a move to end a debate in the Senate.

According to official Senate data, there were 58 coagulation requests filed from 1917 to 1970 and 13 in 1971. If Biden was referring to the number of registered coagulation requests from 1917 to 1970, he would be right when he said there were a total of 58 movements to break the obstruction, but if he were including 1971, the total number of clotting movements would be 71.

Using any of the numbers, Biden exaggerated the relative number of clotting movements filed in the past year, although he was accurate in his general point that the number of obstructions has increased significantly over time. There were 118 coagulation requests filed in 2020 alone, almost double the amount filed between 1917 and 1971.

Vaccinations in the USA and the rest of the world

In discussing his goal of achieving 200 million Covid-19 vaccinations in the first 100 days of his administration, Biden repeated his statement that “no other country in the world has come close, not even close to what we are doing” about the vaccine ahead.

Facts first: It is true that no country has vaccinated more people than the United States, although it is important to note that there are some smaller countries that have vaccinated a larger portion of its total population. So far, the US has administered vaccines to more than 130 million people, a greater number than any other country in the world. Yet, 16 countries and territories – including Chile, Israel and the United Kingdom – administered vaccines to more people per capita. It should be noted that these countries and territories have much smaller populations.

Trump’s tax cut is the top 1%

Biden defied Republican criticism at the cost of $ 1.9 trillion of his pandemic relief law, which he noted would put money in the pockets of “ordinary people”.

He asked rhetorically if people had heard Republicans complain about President Donald Trump’s $ 2 trillion tax cuts, which Biden said was “83% going to the top 1%”. Biden and other Democrats have repeatedly invoked the “83%” number.

Facts first: This statistic needs context. While it is correct to say that the wealthiest Americans were the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s tax cuts in 2017, the figure of “83%” is a projection of what can happen in certain circumstances in 2027, not what has already happened.

The Tax Policy Center estimated in 2017 that the top 1% would get about 83% of benefits in 2027, if the individual tax cuts in the law (which were designed as temporary) could expire without an extension and corporate tax cuts of the law (which were conceived as permanent) continued to exist. For 2018, in contrast, the Tax Policy Center estimated that 1% of the top obtained 20.5% of the benefits, while the 95% -99% group received another 22.1%. For 2025, the estimate was 25.3% going to the top 1%, while 95% -99% would be left with another 21.6%.

Biden was correct in its broadest point that there is a substantial difference in the way the new Biden law and the 2017 Trump law treat the rich and the poor. For example, the Tax Policy Center found that families earning $ 25,000 or less will receive an average tax cut of $ 2,800 this year under the new relief law, increasing their after-tax income by 20%. According to Trump law, these families saw an average reduction of $ 60 in the first year, or about 0.4% of their after-tax income.

The American Rescue Plan and economic growth

Biden said that since the American Rescue Plan was approved, “most meteorologists have significantly increased their projections. Now projecting that it will exceed 6%, a 6% growth in GDP”.

Facts first: It is true that many economists have updated their 2021 gross domestic product forprojections to the north of 6% shortly before or after the legislation was passed, but it is difficult to say whether the majority did not conduct a survey with all economists.

As passage of a major Covid relief bill became more likely, several economists updated their predictions for U.S. GDP growth in 2021.

Chief RSM economist Joe Brusuelas said the legislation would increase GDP by another 3 percentage points and now forecasts growth of 7.2% in 2021.

In March, Goldman Sachs increased its US GDP growth projection in 2021 to 7%, compared to an earlier forecast of 6.8%. Morgan Stanley now expects 7.3% growth, up from 6.4% projected in December.

Republican support for the American rescue plan

Rejecting criticism from Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, Biden said he has the support of Republican voters. He said that even if McConnell says that “the last thing I did, this last part of the legislation, is so far to the left, well, then he should take a look at his party. More than 50% of them must be beyond that limit. , well. Because they support what I did. ”

Facts first: Biden has a reasonable basis for this claim; there is some research that shows that the majority of Republicans support the American Rescue Plan. Several other polls, however, showed Republican support for the project well below the level of the majority. For example, a CNN Poll conducted March 3-8 revealed that 26% of Republicans support and 73% of Republicans are opposed. The poll results have seemed to vary with the formulation of the researchers’ questions.

A Morning Consult / Politico poll conducted February 19-22 found 60% support for the bill among registered Republican voters – after respondents were informed about the $ 1.9 trillion cost of the plan and some important provisions , including the $ 1,400 direct payments. A Morning Consult / Politico poll conducted March 6-8 found 59% Republican support.

A Monmouth University survey conducted from February 25 to March 1, however, put Republican support at just 33%. In addition to the standard differences in survey and sampling methodology (Monmouth’s survey interviewed adults, not registered voters in particular), it is important to note that Monmouth mentioned the $ 1.9 trillion cost of the plan before asking respondents for their opinion, but did not mention the $ 1,400 payments until after that. question.

Even in the CNN poll in which 73% of Republicans expressed opposition to the bill in general, most Republicans expressed support for three of its specific provisions: checks up to $ 1,400 (55% support), billions for schools for help to resume personal classes (55%) and higher tax credits for families, making it easier for low-income families to claim them (73%). However, 71% of Republicans opposed the $ 350 billion project to help state, local, tribal and territorial governments.

Children at the border

Addressing the recent influx of unaccompanied migrant children on the U.S. southern border, Biden said that “nothing has changed” since the Trump administration – saying that there has been a “28% increase in children on the border under my administration” versus a 31% increase over the same period. 2019 under Trump.

Facts first: Biden was wrong about the increase in children at the border during his own administration. He seemed to be mixing two different statistics, one on children and the other on migrants in general.

According to Customs and Border Protection data, the number of unaccompanied children found at the border increased by 61% between January and February 2021, not the 28% claimed by Biden. That’s almost double the increase between January and February 2019.

According to Customs and Border Protection data, general meetings with migrants at the border increased by 28% from January to February this year. But Biden referred specifically to “children”.

This story has been updated with additional fact checks.

CNN’s Geneva Sands contributed to this article.

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