Fact check 7 statistical statements of Biden’s (very factual) economic speech

We looked at a lot of the statistical data that Biden did in the speech – and found that Biden was highly factual, although there are some noteworthy nuances. Here is an assessment of seven of the claims we have examined:

Facts first: This number is approximately accurate, but it is based on a broad definition of “educators”.

Biden’s claim is based on official federal data on people employed in “local government education”. These data actually show a loss of more than 600,000 jobs – 681,400 jobs, specifically – between January 2020 and December 2020. (Data for December are preliminary and can be adjusted later.) It is worth noting, however. , that these numbers count all employees of local educational institutions – including people such as cafeteria workers, custodians and students who are on the payroll for various reasons – so “educators” should not be interpreted as referring specifically to teachers .

Poverty

Biden said: “Altogether, the American Rescue Plan would lift 12 million Americans out of poverty and cut child poverty in half. There are 5 million children lifted out of poverty. Our plan would reduce poverty in the black community by one-third and reduce poverty. poverty in the Hispanic community by almost 40 percent. “

Facts first: These numbers are, of course, predictions rather than guarantees; Biden got them from a “preliminary analysis“by scholars at Columbia University’s Center for Poverty and Social Policy, who analyzed the impact of certain components of their plan. Like other economic models, this analysis was based on several assumptions about the future that may not materialize. But others experts say the Columbia figures cited by Biden make sense.

Among other assumptions, scholars assumed an average of 6% unemployment for 2021. This is plausible – the December rate was 6.7%; the Federal Reserve expects a decline to 5.0% in 2021. “These estimates are entirely reasonable,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, of the figures cited by Biden. Strain added: “The Biden plan has several provisions that would substantially increase the income of low-income families. You would expect this to have a significant impact on child poverty rates, and the estimates produced in this report are very reasonable.”

Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, director of Northwestern University’s Institute for Policy Research, said that “their assumptions seem reasonable and they are known for careful analysis.”

You can click here for a summary of what’s in Biden’s plan. It includes additional direct payments, increased unemployment insurance, billions in rent and food assistance, billions in childcare, an increase in child tax credit and an increase in the federal minimum wage from $ 7.25 an hour to $ 15 an hour.

Pre-existing conditions

Biden hailed an executive order that aims to ensure that people can still receive unemployment benefits if they refuse a job offer because they think the job will put them or their families at risk due to Covid-19. He said: “At the moment, approximately 40 percent of families in America have at least one member with a pre-existing disease.”

Facts first: This number is approximately exact, according to research data. “In fact, this is probably an understatement,” said Cynthia Cox, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, which studies health issues.

A Gallup poll in November found that 48% of respondents said that they or a family member who lived with them had a pre-existing condition, Gallup told CNN. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimated in 2019 that 45% of non-elderly families had at least one non-elderly adult member with a pre-existing disease. If you included people aged 65 and over in the analysis, Cox noted, the number would be even higher.

Deaths by covid-19

Speaking about the coronavirus crisis in the United States, Biden said: “We are 400,000 dead, we are expected to reach well over 600,000.”

Facts first: Different experts have different expectations, but Biden’s “well over 600,000” number is, unfortunately, very plausible.

There were more than 413,000 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. as of the day Biden spoke, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. A model from the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment now projects a total of 569,000 deaths as of May 1, and there will almost certainly be additional deaths after that date. Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health TH Chan, said Biden’s statement is “a reasonable projection”.

The minimum wage and poverty

Revealing his proposal to raise the federal minimum wage to $ 15 an hour from the current $ 7.25 an hour, Biden said: “Nobody in America should work 40 hours a week earning below the poverty line. Fifteen dollars put the people above the poverty line. ”

Facts first: It is true that some people who are currently below the poverty line would pass above the poverty line if the federal minimum wage were raised to $ 15 an hour: the Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2019 that a minimum wage of $ 15 “approximately 1.3 million people would pass out of poverty on the network.” Others offer different estimates; Ben Zipperer, economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, said: “We believe the CBO estimate is too pessimistic.” He said it is “more plausible” for between 1.9 million and 4.0 million people to be lifted out of poverty.

The CBO said that families below the poverty line under the current law would see an average increase of 5.2% in income because of the increase in the minimum wage, while families above the poverty line under the current law would see an average reduction. of 0.1% in income (in part because of reduced business revenue). The CBO added: “In an average week in 2025, the $ 15 option would increase the wages of 17 million workers who would otherwise earn less than $ 15 an hour. Another 10 million workers earning a little more of $ 15 an hour can see their wages rise as well. But 1.3 million other workers would be unemployed, according to the CBO average estimate. ”

Although the overall economic impact of an increase in the federal minimum wage is complicated to assess, it is easy to understand the basic principles of how it would improve the prospects for some workers. The 2019 weighted average poverty line for a family of four was $ 26,172. With the current federal minimum wage of $ 7.25 an hour, someone would be more than $ 11,000 below that poverty line, even if they worked 40 hours a week for 52 weeks a year. Earning $ 15 an hour, that person would exceed the limit if he worked 44 weeks a year.

“So, as a standard of work – yes, a minimum wage of $ 15 could be accurately described as lifting most families out of the poverty line if they are working full-time all year,” said Jeannette Wicks-Lim , associate research professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Wicks-Lim noted that there are nuances here. Some people have part-time hours, part-time jobs or larger families; the cost of living varies widely by location, but the official poverty line does not fit this fact; overcoming the poverty line may mean that only someone “has escaped severe deprivation,” she said, and not that “they are able to sustain a decent standard of living”.

Hunger

Biden said: “We need to face the growing hunger crisis in America. One in seven families in America – one in seven – more than one in five black and Latin families in America report that they do not have enough food to eat.”

Facts first: These figures were correct in December, according to Dice from the latest survey by the Census Bureau on the food situation of Americans (which the bureau warns is “experimental” research).

Between 9 and 21 December, 14% of adults, 24% of black adults and 21% of Latin adults reported that they often or sometimes did not eat enough in the past seven days.

Biden’s plan includes a variety of measures aimed at fighting hunger, including an extension, until September, of a 15% increase in food stamp benefits that Trump signed in December. The extension is scheduled to expire at the end of June.

Tenants

Biden said: “Approximately 14 million Americans – 14 million – are behind on their rent and many are at risk of being evicted.”

Facts first: Fourteen million is a plausible figure that goes a little beyond the findings of the December Census Bureau.

The bureau’s experimental survey from 9 to 21 December found that 10.1 million tenants lived in homes that were not paid for rent. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank, reached 14 million by adjusting the Census Bureau data to explain the fact that many tenants did not respond to the survey.

CNN reported in December that investment bank and consulting firm Stout had found that more than 14 million American families were at risk of eviction at the time. The Census Bureau survey found that 5.2 million people said it was very likely or somewhat likely that they would have to leave their homes due to eviction in the next two months.

Biden’s rescue package would provide $ 25 billion in rental assistance to low- and moderate-income families who lost their jobs during the pandemic (in addition to the $ 25 billion that Trump approved in December). Another $ 5 billion is earmarked to help struggling families pay utility bills. And an additional $ 5 billion goes to states and localities to help people at risk of homelessness.

Separated from the bailout package that must be approved by Congress, Biden took executive action on his first day in office to extend pandemic moratoriums on many evictions and foreclosures by the end of March. Trump-approved moratoriums were scheduled to expire at the end of January.

CNN’s Katie Lobosco and Tami Luhby contributed to this report.

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