Experts say the decline of the COVID-19 case appears to be stalling, variations of concern may be at work

“Suspect B.1.1.7 is now starting to really take effect,” wrote Jha. “And the states are opening up. This is a problem.”

Nicholas Reich, a professor at the University of Massachusetts, whose laboratory creates a pandemic cluster model in collaboration with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said something similar. “For the first time in a while, I am actively concerned with new trends, and perhaps more concerned that this is not getting the attention that I think it deserves,” he said.

It seems more and more, he said in an e-mail, that the stagnation cases “are not just data aberrations, but the variant really taking over and starting to do in some parts of the United States what is already being done to a great extent. part of Europe “. He noted that, in some states, plateaus turned into increases, pointing to Michigan and New Jersey as examples.

He tweeted Wednesday that trends in Michigan cases and hospitalizations “were not good,” saying his lab’s forecast pointed to a steady increase for at least two weeks.

In Massachusetts, the seven-day average of reported cases peaked in the first half of January, then dropped sharply until the last week of February. Since then, it has reached a plateau, rising and falling, with a slight increase in the last week or so. The levels remain higher than the lows reached last summer.

“There are only limited data available on the prevalence of the variants, but the available data seems to suggest that in many places, one or more variants are on the verge of overcoming the prevalent strains,” said Reich on e-mail. “This is a worrying trend. To me, this suggests that the next 4-6 weeks are a very critical phase for us to be very vigilant and not let our guard down while we continue to shoot guns. “

“Yes, we should be concerned,” he said.

Dr. Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, suggested in tweets on Wednesday that Minnesota and Georgia are two other states to watch.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, a former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Thursday in a tweet that he is concerned about a fourth increase in the United States. (For Massachusetts, it would be the third increase since the state kept the virus under control last summer.)

Public health authorities at the national level have warned of variants because of concerns that they may spread more quickly, cause more serious illnesses, fail to respond to treatments or vaccines or have a combination of these attributes. Variant B.1.1.7 is believed to spread more easily and quickly, and some studies have suggested that it causes more serious illnesses, says the CDC.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical advisor on the pandemic, warned on Wednesday that the variants continue to threaten progress made in reducing cases and immunizing the population. “Although we are cautiously optimistic about the future, we know that many challenges remain,” Fauci said in comments prepared before a congressional hearing on Wednesday. CDC director Rochelle Walensky said in her comments: “An increase in viral transmission can reverse the progress we have made.”

Jha said in his tweets that a month ago, all states in the U.S. recorded a drop in cases, but now 15 have more cases than two weeks ago and 19 states had higher positivity rates in the same period.

Even hospitalizations, Jha said, are coming back in places.

“It’s not a surprise B.1.1.7 – it probably represents about 40% of infections in the US today,” tweeted Jha. “It means that about 20,000 infections identified today were likely to be B.1.1.7. It will become the dominant variant in the coming weeks. So what’s the problem?”

He suggested that the public look to Europe across the lake for ideas on what the variant could do here.

As the variant became dominant in European nations, Jha continued, they tended to “see huge spikes in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. So, are we in big trouble?”

Not necessarily, Jha tweeted.

He said the United States has two options for avoiding a similar fate: continue to vaccinate people “and fast” and maintain the pandemic-related restrictions for a few more weeks.

“We are doing the first, not the second,” tweeted Jha. “All high-risk people should be vaccinated in mid-April. This is so close. Every infection that kills someone today is a person who would be vaccinated in the [next] few weeks. So we have to keep public health restrictions in place for a little while longer. “

That means, said Jha, maintaining the requirements for internal mask, not returning to full restaurants and bars yet and not reducing testing.

“And it definitely adds the urgency to vaccinate all high-risk people – older people, those with chronic illnesses, as soon as possible,” tweeted Jha.

The end result, said Jha, is that the country continues to have a high level of infection.

“Am I sure that we will see an increase in cases? No, but worried, ”Jha tweeted. “We are going to finish vaccinating high-risk people. Then, intelligently relax public health measures. This will allow us to enjoy what must be a great summer. “

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker told the Globe on Wednesday in a broad interview that with the state about to fully immunize 1 million people and federal officials projecting a huge increase in vaccine supplies, he is increasingly confident that you can meet your goal of vaccinating more than 4 million adults by July 4.

“We did a pretty decent job [vaccination] program so far, despite the bumps along the way, ”said Baker. “We will continue to work as aggressively as possible to vaccinate as many people as we can. . . it’s the summer. “

Ryan Huddle of the Globe team contributed to this report. Previous story material from Globe and Globe news agencies was used.

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Travis Andersen can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @TAGlobe. Martin Finucane can be reached at [email protected].