Even as the race to vaccinate as many Americans as possible accelerates, some experts are warning that if Americans also fail to follow appropriate security and mitigation measures, the United States could see a resurgence of COVID-19.
Although the country’s average national daily cases continue to fall – about 32.5% in the last month – almost a third of all states have seen their average number of cases increase by at least 10%.
These 15 states are: Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon and West Virginia, according to an ABC News analysis of compiled state data by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Several states – Delaware, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon and West Virginia – have seen their case averages rise by at least 25% in the past week.
“Minnesota, I think, is really a harbinger of what is to come. We are loosening all restrictions that we had and, in a way, creating a perfect storm moment for the transmission of the virus, be it a variant or not,” Michael Osterholm , an epidemiologist and head of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told ABC News’ “World News Tonight” on Wednesday.
Dr. Tara Smith, professor of epidemiology at the Kent State University School of Public Health, told ABC News that her “biggest concern” is the resurgence of the virus.
“I don’t expect to see anything so bad about what we just recovered from, but if we’re not careful, cases can increase again if we let our guard down too early,” said Smith.
There are also 18 states – Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming – that are going through a plateau, not a decline, in the daily averages of cases.
Metropolitan areas, in particular, continue to struggle with high case rates. For weeks, New York City has led the country in cases per 100,000 residents, and last week, New York City Mayor adviser Dr. Jay Varma said that two newly emerged variants of COVID-19 – the United Kingdom and the NY variant – can now represent most cases in the city.
However, it is not yet clear whether these trends are blips or persistent risks with long-term consequences.
Smith believes that a “confluence” of factors may be to blame, including the spread of COVID-19 variants and the loosening of health-related restrictions.
“The combination of rapid reopening, increased mobility and the spread of new variants of COVID is probably driving the upward trend in cases in many parts of the country,” said Dr. John Brownstein, director of innovation at Boston Children’s Hospital and a contributor to ABC News. “While we should feel optimistic about the launch of the vaccine, the new wave, even if short-lived, is likely to result in preventable hospitalizations and deaths.”
According to data compiled by ABC News, in the past three weeks, more than two dozen states are reopening or planning to do so, dismantling the restrictions imposed at the beginning of the pandemic.
United States governors are relaxing the rules on business and public meetings.
Arizona and West Virginia, for example, are allowing restaurants and bars to completely reopen. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott issued several executive orders detailing plans to reopen business and activities in Texas, tweeting, “I just announced that Texas is 100% OPEN.”
At least 17 states no longer have a masking mandate, and even states like Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and New York, which were previously among the most cautious, are easing restrictions. On Friday, Connecticut plans to remove capacity limits for many companies, such as restaurants, retail stores, fitness centers, and places of worship.
In the coming weeks, New York will increase the capacity for internal and external meetings, and Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has announced that capacity restrictions will be lifted everywhere except in large locations.
“The cases are lower than in our great fall, peak winter and vaccinations are increasing, but we all still need to be careful and realize that we are not yet out of danger,” said Smith.
Other experts, however, said they were not yet so concerned.
Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health researcher at Johns Hopkins University, told ABC News that while there is always a risk of a resurgence, especially in states that have lifted restrictions and mask mandates, “I am generally not worried until I see a trend of increasing cases. “
Until the United States begins to expand vaccinations to include other ages and social groups, Nuzzo said he expects to see fluctuations in the data. But, she added, if these trends continue, a sustained increase in the daily average of cases over two weeks would be a cause for concern, as many states are cutting back on testing.
The US now averages just over 1 million tests a day, down from 1.8 million a day in January.
“I am concerned that we are missing out on some spread that could come and surprise us in a month or more, when it suddenly becomes very obvious,” said Nuzzo.
“We have seen across the pandemic that decreases in testing capacity create unnecessary blind spots in our surveillance and are likely to result in delays in the public health response,” added Brownstein.
The safest way forward, experts agree, are vaccinations and more vaccinations.
“The best way to get around the variants is to continue to vaccinate as many people as quickly and efficiently as possible, while maintaining public health measures,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading disease specialist. from the country, to ABC News on Tuesday.
To date, 12% of the total US population has been fully vaccinated and 22.2% have received at least one dose.
With approximately 500 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine expected to be prepared by the end of May, more states are moving to open eligibility requirements to allow anyone aged 16 and over to access them.
“Given that vaccines have been shown to offer broad protection against a number of variants,” said Brownstein. “These early warning signs reaffirm the need to maintain and even increase the rate of vaccination across the country.”