- Elon Musk’s timeline for SpaceX to land humans on Mars has fluctuated over the years.
- On Sunday, he said 2026 would be the year to send a manned mission to Mars. In 2017, he said 2024.
- Space industry experts believe SpaceX will reach Mars, but not as soon as it expects.
- Visit the Business Insider home page for more stories.
Elon Musk is still confident that 2026 will be the year that his space company SpaceX will take humans to Mars, where he hopes to build a human settlement.
In a broad interview with the Clubhouse app on Sunday, Musk said it will take “five and a half years” before a SpaceX Starship rocket mission can land on the Red Planet.
“The important thing is to establish Mars as a self-sustaining civilization,” he said.
But Musk’s timetable for reaching Mars has fluctuated in recent years. The billionaire said in 2017 that his “aspirational” timeline was for SpaceX to send cargo ships to Mars in 2022, followed by a manned mission two years later.
In October, Musk said the space company had a “fighting chance” to send an unlocked rocket to Mars in 2024 – two years later than he expected. He repeated his ambition in December, saying he is “highly confident” that SpaceX will launch a rocket-free rocket to the planet in 2024, followed by a manned mission in 2026.
With five and a half years to go, experts say SpaceX can wait a few more years to reach its goal.
Greg Autry, an expert in the commercial space industry, told Insider that he thinks Musk will reach Mars, either on its own or with NASA in 2029 or 2031. The window depends on when the Earth aligns with Mars, which is each 26 months. But Autry warned that space projects are challenging and are rarely punctual – Musk’s goal is no exception.
“It is a question of finances and will. Elon has both,” he said.
All of his projects, from Tesla to SpaceX and the Boring Company, include extremely ambitious deadlines and generally take much longer than expected, according to Autry. “This should not minimize the power to set an aggressive date, nor the magnificence of what he eventually gets,” he said.
Musk said in January 2020 that he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050. This involves building 1,000 starship rockets over 10 years – which means 100 ships a year – and launching an average of three ships per day. “There will be many jobs on Mars!” it added.
SpaceX launched a prototype of its Starship rocket 10 km above Boca Chica, Texas, on Tuesday, but it exploded during an attempted landing. This is the second time that a starship rocket has been launched and burst into flames. The first time was in December.
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Despite the starship rocket being tried and tested, Autry pointed out that the booster, life support system, reentry system and resupply capability on Mars have not yet been tested – and some have not even been built. This means that it will probably take longer to build the technology beyond the starship to support a civilization on Mars.
“There is a lot of work there that is overshadowed by the dramatic testing of the landing system,” said Autry.
Musk’s ambitious goals stem from a mix of motivational charisma, fallacy planning and being “super capable of getting things done,” said Autry.
“When he thinks about how long it will take to build a rocket, he may be guilty of imagining 5,000 Elon Musks working at SpaceX and more of them at its suppliers and at the government offices he needs to license or finance his project.” said Autry, adding that this is not realistic.
Kevin J DeBruin, a former NASA rocket scientist, told Insider that Musk has only three launch opportunities left because of the alignment of the planets to test and make sure everything runs smoothly. If launches, new technologies, system tests and landings all go according to plan and Musk has the cash flow to support it, DeBruin said it is possible that SpaceX could reach Mars in 2026.
There are concerns, however, about the mass needed to land on Mars, said DeBruin.
It takes six times as much mass as we already have, he said. “We need a new landing technology to land more mass on the surface of Mars for humans to live, operate and then leave the surface to return home.”
Biological issues can also come into play. DeBruin said that the longest time a human remains continuously in space is just under a year, but the trip to Mars will take much longer. “We will see more degradation of the human body,” he said.
Steve Nutt, professor of materials science and aerospace engineering at the University of Southern California, told Insider that Musk intentionally makes bold predictions to “inspire his workforce to think big”.
“It can be argued that it is an effective strategy and it is less important that the timeline is accurate than it is inspiring,” said Nutt.
SpaceX’s goal of reaching Mars is “something NASA should have done a long time ago,” said Nutt. Given that the space agency lost its sight after the big moon walk and is limited by politics, SpaceX could fill the void, he said.