JERUSALEM (AP) – Exit polls indicate that there is no clear winner in Tuesday’s Israeli election, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate uncertain and signaling a continuing political stalemate.
Polls on Israel’s three main TV stations showed Netanyahu and his religious and nationalist allies, as well as several opponents, both of whom fell short of a parliamentary majority. This could set the stage for weeks of paralysis and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Outbound searches are often inaccurate and official results may take days to be known.
The surveys conducted on Channels 11, 12 and 13 were almost identical, showing Netanyahu and his allies with 53-54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel’s parliament. His opponents were projected to win by 59, and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party would win by 7-8.
If the final results are in line with the polls, both sides will have to court Bennett, a former Netanyahu ally with strained relations with the prime minister, to form a majority of at least 61 seats.
Bennett shares Netanyahu’s hard-line nationalist ideology, but has signaled that he will be open to cooperating with his rivals if he gets the chance to be prime minister.
The election is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s dividing rule and, once again, opinion polls predicted an extremely close dispute.
The three-month campaign was largely devoid of substantive issues and focused heavily on Netanyahu’s personality and whether he should remain in office. In contrast to previous elections, in which he faced a clear rival, this time a diverse range of parties is trying to overthrow him, having little in common besides his animosity towards him.
“Vote, vote, vote, vote, vote,” said Netanyahu after voting in Jerusalem, with his wife Sara by his side.
Netanyahu, 71, who even after 12 years in office remains a tireless activist, continued throughout the day. At one point, he marched along a Mediterranean beach begging people for a megaphone to vote.
“This is the moment of truth for the state of Israel,” said one of his opponents, opposition leader Yair Lapid, when voting for Tel Aviv.
Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s highly successful coronavirus vaccination campaign. He acted aggressively to ensure enough vaccines for the 9.3 million Israelis and, in three months, the country vaccinated around 80% of its adult population. This allowed the government to open restaurants, shops and the airport just in time for election day.
He also tried to present himself as a global statesman, pointing to the four diplomatic agreements he made with the Arab countries last year. These deals were brokered by his close ally, then President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu’s opponents, including a trio of former advisers who share his nationalist ideology, but oppose what they say is his autocratic leadership style, see things very differently.
They say that Netanyahu has spoiled many aspects of the pandemic, particularly by allowing his ultra-Orthodox allies to ignore the blocking rules and fuel a high infection rate for much of the year. More than 6,000 Israelis died from COVID-19, and the economy remains weak, with double-digit unemployment.
They also point to Netanyahu’s corruption trial, saying that someone being charged with serious crimes is not fit to lead the country. Netanyahu has been accused of fraud, breach of trust and taking bribes in a series of scandals that he considers a witch hunt by a hostile media and legal system.
Even Netanyahu’s reputation as a statesman has suffered somewhat in the past few days. The United Arab Emirates, the most important of the four Arab countries to establish official diplomatic relations with Israel, made it clear last week that they did not want to be used as part of Netanyahu’s reelection candidacy after he was forced to cancel a visit to the country. The Biden government also kept its distance, in contrast to the support it received from Trump in previous elections.
In a reminder of the country’s many security challenges, Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired a rocket at Israel on Tuesday, firing air raid sirens in southern Israel. The Israeli military said the rocket landed in an open space.
Opinion polls predict a close race, with the possibility that Netanyahu and his opponents will not be able to secure a parliamentary majority again. This could plunge the country into an unprecedented fifth consecutive election later this year.
Tuesday’s election was prompted by the disintegration of an emergency government formed last May between Netanyahu and his main rival at the time. The alliance was plagued by infighting and the elections were forced after they failed to reach an agreement on the budget in December.
“It would be better if we didn’t have to vote, you know, four times in two years,” said Jerusalem voter Bruce Rosen. “It is a little tiring.”
By 6pm (1600 GMT), 51.5% of eligible voters had voted, down nearly 5 percentage points from the previous year’s previous election, the Israeli electoral commission announced.
Netanyahu’s opponents accused him of fomenting an impasse in the hope of creating a more friendly parliament that will grant him immunity from prosecution.
Netanyahu hopes to form a government with his hard-line nationalist and traditional religious allies. This includes two ultra-Orthodox parties and a small religious party that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates.
This time, much will depend on the performance of a handful of small parties struggling to win a minimum of 3.25% of the vote to enter the 120-seat Knesset, or parliament.
Although Netanyahu’s Likud was expected to emerge as the largest single party, no party has ever obtained a majority of 61 seats alone. He and his rivals must win the support of smaller allied parties to form a majority coalition.
Recent polls indicate that several parties are close to the electoral threshold. The failure of either of them to enter parliament would have a significant impact on the balance between Netanyahu and his opponents.
Another complicating factor was the absent vote. Up to 15% of the electorate was expected to vote outside their home districts, a higher than normal number due to special accommodations for those with COVID-19 or quarantined. The government created special polling stations and even took the ballot boxes to hospital beds to allow people to vote safely.
These votes are counted separately in Jerusalem, which means that the final results can take days. Given the heated dispute, it can be difficult to predict the outcome before the final count is complete.
After the results arrive, attention will turn to the country’s president, Reuven Rivlin.
He will hold a series of meetings with party leaders and then choose the one he believes has the best chance of forming a government as his appointed prime minister. This task is usually, but not always, assigned to the head of the largest party. This will trigger weeks of misguided negotiations, as the appointed prime minister tries to forge a government with promises of generous budgets and powerful ministries to his would-be partners.
Voting in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Rivlin said the stalemate comes at a price.
“Four elections in two years erode public confidence in the democratic process,” he said, while urging Israelis to vote again. “There is no other way.”