The most important part of exchanging Milwaukee for PJ Tucker is the mentality behind it. The Bucks admitted an error in negotiating some off-season signings that didn’t work (DJ Augustin and Torrey Craig, the last of whom was sent to the Suns in a separate deal) and created assets out of thin air by adjusting a future selection of draft obligations that they they owed the Rockets. It’s the kind of aggressive move they haven’t made in the past. Milwaukee now has two vacancies that it can fill without entering the luxury tax. That’s a good thing because they can’t count on Tucker being enough to win an NBA title. They have to keep pushing.
Tucker was an elite player for most of his time in Houston. The best version of him was an elite inner defender with strength and stamina to play much larger than his size (1.80 m and 245 pounds) and quick to defend at the perimeter. He was always quite offensively limited, but he could do open 3s (career 35.9 percent in 2.9 attempts per game) and space on the floor.
But we haven’t seen that version of Tucker this season. Harden forced his way out of town, the Rockets imploded and Tucker, 35, seemed to grow old overnight. Their averages in points (4.4), rebounds (4.6), percentage of goals (36.6) and percentage of 3 points (31.4) fell from a cliff. He seemed a slow step and unable to play the kind of intense defense for which he is known. The question is whether it was a physical decline or Tucker taking his foot off the gas until it was traded. He was not playing as hard, but he is also an older player with a demanding role that put many miles on his body.
He should help Bucks, anyway. His percentage of pitches is likely to improve now that he is again playing with stars that can create open strokes for him. The Rockets had no one who could do that for him after Harden left. Milwaukee has three players who can in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. It is one of the heaviest lineups in the NBA, which explains why they catch anyone who can take down 3s and defend a position.
The Bucks have just four players in their support roster (Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton) they can count on. Milwaukee emptied his list to negotiate with Holiday and had to grate the bargain at the free agency. Most of his hires failed. Augustin is a small-sized guard reaching the end of his career. Craig never got along with Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer. Bryn Forbes is younger than Augustin, but almost as small, and has little chance of surviving defense in the playoffs.
Even the trusted figures in their supporting cast, with the exception of DiVincenzo, do not inspire confidence. The league discovered Lopez. He didn’t shoot as well as he did in the first season in Milwaukee, so defenses are leaving him open at the perimeter and could take advantage of his declining speed across the court. Portis throws an offensive punch off the bench, but is an unreliable defender. Connaughton has been fighting in the playoffs and doesn’t have the size (1.80 m tall and 209 pounds) or offensive creativity to make a difference on the wing.
Negotiating with Tucker gives them a ready critical timeline. They now have a fifth option to get around Giannis, Middleton, Holiday and DiVincenzo, who have a net rating of over-11.9 in 342 minutes together this season. The Bucks can place four snipers around Giannis and play against five quality defenders at the same time. That’s the kind of lineup they’ve needed in the past two post-seasons, when Budenholzer kept Lopez on the ground even when opponents downsized and left him with no one to protect. He’s a stubborn coach who sticks to what worked in the regular season, instead of making adjustments in the playoffs.
The best scenario is that Tucker presses a button and allows them to play a more aggressive style of defense. He has a lot of incentive now that he is competing for a title and competing for a new contract in the off season. If he can still defend himself on the perimeter, the Bucks can switch screens in all five positions and cover the gaps in their schemes that Heat exposed in last season’s playoffs. The Bucks have changed more this season, but trying different defensive coverages is not enough without the staff to execute them.
But expecting so much from Tucker is a terribly big “if”. Bucks needs other options. Milwaukee already had a small elite ball center in Giannis. His net rating this season, when he plays without Lopez or Portis, is over-14.9 in 97 minutes. The problem is that sliding upwards exposes the depth of the wing. This still needs to be resolved.
That’s where Milwaukee’s off-season moves were so disappointing. They were operating on the banks. Portis, Augustin and Forbes would never be able to fit into their best lineups. Craig is the only hire he could, and Budenholzer gave up on him almost immediately. This lack of foresight is the underlying issue for Bucks. They do not proactively identify problems or deal with them in advance. Their greatest need has always been a 3-eD wing that could allow Giannis to play more in 5. They didn’t even try to fill it.
There is a potential solution on your bench. Jordan Nwora, the no. 45 the general choice in the draft, is a big wing (1.80 m and 225 pounds) who made 3s at high speed (39.4% with 4.9 attempts per game) in three seasons in Louisville. He is also an older rookie (22) with an NBA-ready body. He has played in just 10 games this season with ankle problems, but is no longer in his injury report. They cannot just assume that he cannot help because of his lack of experience. Thanasis Antetokounmpo is in rotation this season, although it should be clear that his limited offensive play will make him a handicap in the playoffs. Nwora may also not be the answer, but it is at least possible that it is.
Refusing to give younger players a chance is a long-standing problem for Bucks. It is unfair to blame them for not playing Christian Wood when the rest of the NBA also rejected him, but they picked him up two seasons ago and never used him. It was the same problem with DJ Wilson, whom he negotiated for Tucker. Budenholzer buried Wilson in the bank, although he is the kind of big switchable man they needed. Milwaukee could use more imagination. No one would blame Brooklyn for not playing against Nic Claxton, a 2019 runoff choice that missed most of its debut season due to injuries. But they realized that their skill set could help them, gave them a chance to prove their worth and are now benefiting from it.
Bucks cannot afford to sit back and cheer for the best. They need to maintain the same aggressiveness that has allowed them to beat other competitors in the trading market for Tucker. There are still two holes in your second unit in the guard and in the wing. They have one more week before the negotiation deadline, as well as space to hire two players in the purchase market. Negotiating with Tucker is just the first step. Milwaukee has more moves to make.