Since the peak of the holiday peak in early January, New York City has seen a sharp decline in the number of people who test positive for coronavirus each day, as well as the state and country.
But the drop was not as dramatic as nationally, and transmission in the community in the city remains high, with about 3,200 probable and confirmed cases reported daily. As more contagious variants spread, the city’s positive test rate has only declined slowly, from 8% two weeks ago to more than 7.1% this week, according to city data.
“Everything looks so tenuous and fragile in many ways,” said Dr. Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “Although overall there is a decrease, it is moving incredibly slowly, in some ways slower than the decline seen in the rest of the country.”
Two studies that were published online this week – but have not yet been evaluated by peers – said that a new variant in New York City, first detected in samples collected in November, was beginning to spread. This variant, called B.1.526, shared characteristics similar to variants found in South Africa and Brazil that have been shown to weaken vaccine effectiveness.
At this point, it is unclear what the new variant means in the long term, as the authorities still do not know the impact in the real world that it will have.
“At the moment, we just need to consider this a variant of interest – something that is interesting, that we need to follow and track,” Jay Varma, senior adviser in the mayor’s office, said at a news conference on Thursday. “But that doesn’t change anything about our concern for public health.”
Variants may require people who have been fully vaccinated to receive a third booster dose by the end of the year. But most importantly, it highlights the need to vaccinate more people as soon as possible.
How many variants are spreading in the city?
On Wednesday, authorities were publicly tracking only the most contagious variant B.1.1.7 – first discovered in Britain – which they said accounted for about 6.2% of cases in the second week of February.
This variant was first detected in New York in early January and is spreading. Between January 11 and 31, it was detected in 2.7 percent of the sequenced cases in New York City, according to data released weekly by the city. In the first week of February, that number rose to 7%.
But the two studies published online this week by researchers at Caltech and Columbia University suggest that more variants are spreading across the city. In addition to the discovery of the new variant, these researchers found a case of the variant that first appeared in South Africa and two cases of the variant originating in Brazil that had not yet been publicly disclosed by the city or state.
City officials said that this new research had not been shared with the city before its launch.
Across the country, researchers focused primarily on the variant first discovered in Britain, because it is spreading widely. One study found that B.1.1.7 cases are doubling every 10 days. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted that variant B.1.1.7, which is estimated to be 35 to 45 percent more transmissible, could become the dominant source of infection across the country in March.
How is the city doing with the vaccines?
An encouraging sign about the launch is that there has been a more pronounced drop in the positive test rate among New Yorkers over 75 than among New Yorkers as a whole, probably because of vaccinations. In addition, emergency room admissions for people over 65 have stabilized and are gradually falling.
Epidemiologists say these figures underscore the importance of targeting vaccination for those most likely to be hospitalized and die of the virus, especially as the variant first detected in Britain is becoming more common in the city.
Until Tuesday, the city had partially or totally vaccinated around 1 million people, in an important milestone for the implantation. Of these, about half a million people received both shots.
But vaccine release has been uneven across racial groups, with those most affected by the virus being vaccinated at lower rates. Although nearly a quarter of New Yorkers identify themselves as black, for example, blacks received only 12% of vaccines, according to city statistics.
In addition, about a quarter of people who have been fully vaccinated in New York City do not live in the city, but outside, according to the data. It is not known how many qualified because they work in the city or were vaccinated in state units and how many broke the rules.
The rate of vaccination in recent days has also been slower than the city would like, as the shortage of supplies has been exacerbated by delays in deliveries caused by bad weather. Last week, the city administered about 30,000 vaccines a day, against a peak of 60,000 doses a day the previous week.
New York State ranks last in terms of the percentage of people in a state who received at least one injection, according to a vaccine tracker for the New York Times.
Should the state be reopening so much?
As the number of cases and the rate of positivity fell to pre-holiday levels, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo reopened a tap of activities: indoor dining in New York City, large stadiums and sports arenas with a capacity of 10,000 or more. more people, city cinemas and wedding venues, all with reduced capacity and with other security measures in place.
Cuomo said he didn’t want to keep things closed just because the variants were here.
“Every day, we examine the data and calibrate it,” said Gareth Rhodes, a member of Cuomo’s state coronavirus task force. “You have to be very, very careful, but also recognize that you cannot keep the economy closed indefinitely.”
But experts are concerned. They note that, with the arrival of variants, keeping the transmission of the community under control is more important than ever.
“It doesn’t make epidemiological sense to me,” said Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at City University of New York. “I see how it makes sense from an economic point of view, on the one hand. In the short term, it will help the profits of restaurant workers and employ people. But it also puts employees at risk and is in contradiction with the main objective, which is to make the vaccine reach as many arms as possible before the virus infects them ”.
Dr. El-Sadr added: “I don’t think it’s time to reopen more. I think it’s time to calm down and focus on expanding vaccination. “
Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, argued in a new article that vaccinations needed to be accelerated and more targeted at people over 65 who are at greater risk of death like variant that originated in Britain takes over.
The race, disease experts argue, is now between variants and the vaccine, and the safest way to win is to contain transmission as much as possible, vaccinating as quickly as possible.
“A large spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the near future remains a great possibility,” says the newspaper.
Joseph Goldstein contributed reporting.