If you are reading this, you have heard reports that Pierre-Luc Dubois wants to play somewhere other than Columbus and, as he is nowhere near UFA status, the only way to do that is through an exchange.
This type of news means that the internet goes crazy with trading proposals, so we decided to take a look at what type of trading can really give Columbus the kind of return that a player like Dubois deserves. We asked our 1OB team, along with a few other NHL analysts, for their ideas and then looked at Prasanthe Iyer Trading machine (depends on CapFriendly limit data and Dom LuszczyszynGSVA values to estimate current contract value)
A few quick but important notes before we start:
-
As Iyer notes about using his trading machine: trading RFAs is nebulous because, if they don’t have a contract that covers the entire contracted time, it can underestimate its value. This means that Dubois’ value is probably even higher than estimated below.
-
We are not here to debate WHAT IF Pierre-Luc Dubois will be negotiated, nor are we here to debate WE MUST Pierre-Luc Dubois is traded or where he COULD be negotiated. This is purely an exercise in understanding the value the player has on the open market (while under his current contract).
It was one by one
Dubois for Patrik Laine (F-Winnipeg jets) – 1OB Team
It resounded instantly. Two players who apparently want to leave their current organization. That makes sense?
Verdict: Not.
Moving.
Dubois to Mathew Barzal (C-New York Islanders) – Twitter
Another idea came up on the mast of an exchange of players who are not currently facilitating their long-term contract negotiations.
Verdict: Nearby, but islanders receive more help than Colombo. Even if you take into account Barzal’s next projected contract (by Evolving Hockey), his contract value only increases by 9.6 (and he better come with a contract).
The Package Deals
Dubois for William Nylander (F-Toronto) and Nick Robertson (F-Toronto) – 1OB Team
Verdict: Evvvveerrrybody likes to go after Nylander, and yes, it is probably not realistic. But what if you get that kind of deal? Accept. Especially if you have already done some deck cleaning as the Blue Jackets did.
The Boston Bruins
Shawn Ferris mentioned Dubois being the type of asset Boston would like, we asked him what he thought the price would be:
Option 1: Jake DeBrusk (F), Charlie Coyle (C), Urho Vaakanainen (D) and a second.
Ferris’ opinion: DeBrusk is only a year older than Dubois and is a decent left-back. DeBrusk doesn’t come up with many terms, but Coyle does and is a legitimate second-rate center who can play powerplay and penalty and would probably replace Dubois. Both add goals. Urho is a 21-year-old Finnish left-handed defender who could be a good discus engine, but may not process the game at an elite level. Ferris added a second round choice to “make it fair”.
Verdict: Direct value wise? Accept the agreement. A center too? ACCEPT THE BUSINESS.
if you say that Colombo may not need a defense….
Verdict: Accept the agreement. Perhaps a lesser choice for sweetener too?
Option 2: Jack Studnicka (C), a first round choice more …
If we assume that DeBrusk and Coyle are untouchable, that is another option. People have high hopes for Studnicka, but Boston can protect its bets and get a good guaranteed player now. This move would likely expose a good player to the Bruins in the expansion draft, so the team takes an additional risk. That may be very little, so maybe Ondrej Kase or Craig Smith are also included.
Verdict: These are close, but may not be blockages. Kase is a good option, but Smith probably can’t because of his age, and with the idea that Dubois may be undervalued due to his short contract, Columbus is at a disadvantage. Move even with the first bright choice in front of your eyes.
j’aime la maison
Dubois is from Quebec and there is simply an NHL team there (which is one of the most historic in the NHL). So, what can that organization do to bring a winning child home? We contacted Laura Saba for your suggestions.
First, she rejected the Montreal 1OB proposal for Nick Suzuki and a potential customer (B + for A-): “I absolutely don’t think the Habs would split up from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield or Jesperi Kotkaniemi, or even Alexander Romanov ”Said Saba. “These players are now at the highest level.”
But, she knows that you have to give to receive.
Option 1: Phillip Danault (F), Kaiden Guhle (D)
Saba’s opinion: Guhle is a promising prospect, and Colombo AMARIA Danault, as long as he comes with some guarantee that the player would sign again or with a sign and switch. Verdict: We are not far away, and that presupposes that Colombo wants defensive depth, but, again, Dubois can be worth MORE….
Option 2 – Saba: Would they need someone like Ryan Poehling (F) maybe?
Verdict: There is a negative value here, so we continue.
Option 3 – Saba: I’m thinking of another promising prospect, or maybe a choice to not have to choose a player
Verdict: Now we are talking.
In general: Again, these proposals are not intended to suggest directions that the Blue Jackets will follow – if they move Pierre-Luc Dubois; after all, do we think Jarmo Kekalainen would keep Dubois in the East if he could help it? But what we can see most clearly now is the type of value that the player we must command in the market.
Talk on Twitter or in the comments if there are more deals you want to see.