More European sanctions on Russia may be announced next week, but even the humiliation of the EU’s foreign policy chief on a visit to Moscow last week does not seem capable of sharpening the bloc’s divisively divided policy towards the Kremlin, analysts say.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, is under heavy fire from MEPs, diplomats and observers this week, who considered him embarrassingly outdone by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
But experts say the latest EU-Russia dispute should not lead to any immediate hardening of the bloc’s position on an increasingly assertive Moscow, because member states are unable to agree on how to deal with the Vladimir Putin regime .
Borrell’s trip, which was opposed by some member states, culminated in a press conference during which Lavrov accused EU leaders of lying about the poisoning of incarcerated opposition figure Alexei Navalny and called the bloc an “unreliable partner” .
Adding insult to injury, Borrell subsequently learned from Twitter, after the press conference ended, that Russia had expelled diplomats from Germany, Sweden and Poland for allegedly participating in demonstrations in support of Navalny.
The former Spanish Foreign Minister told MEPs on Tuesday that he wanted to see if Moscow was “interested in a serious attempt to reverse the deterioration in our relations and seize the opportunity for more constructive dialogue”.
The answer was clear, he said: “They are not”. Russia “did not live up to expectations of becoming a modern democracy,” he said, and was “progressively disengaging from Europe, viewing democratic values as an existential threat”.
Borrell said there was “deep disappointment and growing distrust” between the two sides and that he would propose new concrete measures, possibly including sanctions, against Moscow for Navalny’s arrest before a meeting of EU foreign ministers on 22 February.
Lavrov responded, saying that it was the EU that was “alienating Russia” and reaffirming Russia’s desire for a relationship “based not on unilateral demands, but on mutual respect and consideration of each other’s interests”.
More than 70 MEPs signed a letter demanding Borrell’s resignation. Dacian Cioloș, a Romanian MEP and leader of the centrist group Renew, said the visit “unfortunately had a negative impact on the EU’s credibility in the diplomatic sector”.
Others, however, recognized a broader problem. Moscow “abused” Borrell’s visit “to humiliate and offend the EU,” said Dutch socialist MEP Kati Piri, but the result might not have been the same “if EU leaders had taken a tougher stance … We need of a united strategy towards Russia. “
Reinhard Bütikofer, a leading German green MEP, made the same point, describing the visit as “a failure”, but noting that Borrell had “received a very bad hand because of the lack of unity in the [European] advice”.
EU unity in Russia, however, is unlikely to appear anytime soon. Despite growing concern over Moscow’s behavior in many capitals, there is widespread disagreement on how to respond, with national economic and strategic interests far from being aligned.
Germany, which played an important role in EU sanctions against Russia following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, is resisting calls to withdraw from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, preferring targeted sanctions against wealthy Kremlin supporters.
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron, from France, still favors dialogue and a strategic “reset” in EU-Russia relations, while Poland and the Baltic countries want much tougher action.
“Moscow knows what it wants from the EU: a relationship based on dealing separately with each member state,” said Judy Dempsey, of the Carnegie Europe institute. “In contrast, the EU and member states, collectively, do not know what kind of dialogue or relationship they want with Russia.”
Like his predecessors, Borrell was doomed to fail because the bloc lacks a genuinely European strategy “combining values, common interests and goals,” said Dempsey. “Until now, national interests in Europe have prevented this from happening. It is difficult to see that changing. “
Nicu Popescu, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that European attempts to reestablish relations with Russia were doomed to failure because “they were based on the idea of mutual concessions”.
Russian thinking, Popescu said, is that if the West wants reconfiguration, it is up to the West to back down, meaning that “each new offer of reconfiguration only fuels the Russian reluctance to really get involved”.
A more muscular approach can yield better results, he added. “Maintaining the pressure of sanctions, giving up Nord Stream 2 and cultivating deeper security partnerships with the EU’s eastern neighbors can be a more difficult, but safer, way to re-engage with Russia.”