Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is the last American muscle car. He’s huge, fast, powerful, a little intimidating and undeniably retro-cool. But it is not very practical and, despite appearances, it was probably not meant to last.
Henry ran for 2,027 yards this season, the fifth highest total in NFL history. He became the second running back to eclipse 2,000 running yards since Chris Johnson of the Titans in 2009 and Adrian Peterson in 2012, and is only the eighth player in league history to reach that milestone. Henry led or drew the lead in races, yards and touchdowns for the second consecutive season in 2020.
Henry’s achievements become even more remarkable on closer examination. He ran for 1,268 yards only on the first downhill runs; that production alone would have allowed him to finish third in the NFL in total running yards. Henry ran for 710 yards in his last four games, including 250 yards when the Titans won AFC South with a 41-38 win over the Houston Texans, reinforcing his reputation for getting stronger over the course of the season. Pro Football Focus credits Henry with a total of 77 tackles avoided in racing moves; Henry “eludes” most defenders by throwing them out of the room like the hero of a western show, but that still counts.
Henry ran 446 yards in last year’s playoffs, prompting the Titans to nullify wins over the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots before the Kansas City Chiefs returned to defeat them for the AFC championship. Only four other running backs ran for more yards than Henry in a single postseason, and three of them – Terrell Davis in 1997 and 1998, Marcus Allen in 1983, John Riggins in 1982 – are now members of the Hall of Fame, largely part due to his playoff and heroism of the Super Bowl. (The great Eddie George of the Titans was the other, in 1999).
A similar performance this year could lead the Titans to the Super Bowl and Henry to a short list of legends of all time.
Unfortunately, strategic trends, analytical precepts and history itself are not on Henry’s side.
Henry’s success goes against the modern wisdom of the NFL. He is a workhorse in a pass-happy league who has determined that sharing transportation among a committee is more efficient, sustainable and affordable than forcing even the most formidable rusher. Henry ran 378 times during the regular season, the highest total since DeMarco Murray ran 392 times for the Dallas Cowboys in 2014. Two or three running backs each season typically won more than 350 races from the 1980s through the early 2000s. three rushers (Henry, Murray and Arian Foster in 2012) have crossed that threshold in the past decade.
Henry’s heavy workload makes him a potential victim of the dreaded 370 curse, an analytical principle popularized by non-football players in their mid-teens. Research suggests that 370 or more shipments in one season typically result in injuries or a sharp decline in the next season. Murray, for example, dropped to just 702 yards in 2015 after his 2014 high-mileage season. History is replete with other examples (and few counter-examples) of rushers whose careers have been shortened by overuse, many of whom have been considered exempt from the “curse” due to their greatness, strength, dedication, etc.
(The fact that usage declined at the same time that the 370 Curse gained exposure is hardly a coincidence. NFL decision makers act like tough high school guys when it comes to analysis, shouting “Math is for nerds!” At press conferences, then whispering asks for all test answers.)
Henry’s robust style only adds to concerns about his workload. Most modern running backs act as catchers, allowing them to work on the sides and absorb less strikes against smaller defenders. Henry hammers the midfield like a 1970s running back, turning every Sunday into a demolition derby. It is an invigorating change of pace in a league that has strayed too far from its muddy roots, and Henry certainly catches some defenders off guard by choosing to walk right by them instead of bypassing them. But between transport and collisions, Henry has voided the terms of his service guarantee and is beginning to defy destiny.
Each generation produces one or two running backs that resist all statistical trends, ignore strenuous workloads and remain effective after the odometers turn: Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, LaDainian Tomlinson, Curtis Martin, Eric Dickerson, Allen, Riggins and some others. Henry may well be one of those coasts. Then again, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell and many other recent rushers seemed indestructible in one year and their production dropped the following season, in many cases shortly after they signed lucrative long-term contracts.
The Titans signed with Henry for four years and an estimated $ 50 million in July. Despite their current excellence, there is a great risk that they will end up paying for Henry to be towed to the junkyard in a year or two.
For now, however, the Titans are counting on Henry to once again drag them into the playoffs. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s quick pass reduced Henry’s burden to one degree, but the Titans’ defense ended 24th in the league on allowed points and 28th on allowed yards.
On Sunday, Tennessee will face a Baltimore Ravens team that has scored 186 points in the last five games. They will need Henry to toughen up tired defenders and make touchdowns at home to win that potential shooting, but also to have a prayer against the Kansas City Chiefs and / or Buffalo Bills in the last rounds.
Henry must do whatever it takes to force the Titans into this year’s Super Bowl, because history warns that they won’t have many other chances.