Turkey used to present a narrative that foresaw a reconciliation with Israel if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was replaced. Ankara had high hopes for this in 2019 and 2020, when it looked like Benny Gantz’s blue and white party could come out victorious. Turkey’s message about “reconciliation” has always been one-sided. He wanted to attract Israel to get rid of Jerusalem’s close partners in Athens and Nicosia.
Last year, when Israel was moving towards a gas pipeline agreement with Greece and Cyprus and looking to join the new Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, Turkey was energized. If it could influence some voices in Israel, it could slow the emerging ties that the Jewish state was making with Greece. But Turkey was disappointed and frustrated with its goals. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK party in Turkey has been one of the most hostile to Israel in the world. Hosting Hamas terrorists and threatening to sever relations with the United Arab Emirates because of the new Abraham Accords, the organization sought to isolate Israel. Netanyahu knows this very well and has faced Erdogan on several occasions.
Turkey still has fantasies of playing a big role in Palestinian affairs. He wants to promote Hamas in the West Bank and have a role in Jerusalem. In the past, it also wanted to even broker an agreement between Israel and Syria. But a lot has changed. Israel and Turkey quickly split under Erdogan, especially after the 2009 war and the Mavi Marmara case.
Today’s elections do not promise much to Ankara. Turkey returned to sing the song of reconciliation, but mainly with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In December 2020, he sought to influence Israel. Seeing Ankara’s close ally in Trump leaving office, she knew she would be isolated. But Ankara’s choice of a new envoy to Jerusalem was rejected and his proposals shifted from sugar to salt as he left Israel to try to attract Egypt and others. Even so, Ankara has eased its rhetoric and Hamas leaders have not had a red carpet reception since last summer.
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Turkey’s disinterest in Israel’s elections this time can be judged by the lack of state media reporting. There are no pieces of analysis, opinion articles, or in-depth reports. There seems to be a lack of interest because he can read the electoral map and expects more of the same from Israel.
Ankara’s dreams of finding a new prime minister in Israel with whom he can attempt some kind of “reboot” will be dashed if Netanyahu remains in office. We are a long way from the days when Ankara met with the Syrian regime and then spoke to Israel about what it learned. In 2004, when Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Turkey, he asked Syria to stop supporting anti-Israel terrorist groups and, according to foreign diplomatic cables, even raised the “issue of accountability by Israeli citizens. disappeared and killed in Syria and Lebanon “. These discussions illustrate that there was a time when the Ankara regime was less anti-Israel and played a constructive role in peace, rather than trying to sabotage Israel’s relations with Greece and the Gulf.