It’s official, we have our “four finals” in the NFL. It will be the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game next weekend. As far as last weekend is concerned, from the game’s perspective, it looked like the books were heading for a horrible weekend at first. The two favorites on Saturday covered, but on Sunday saw exactly the opposite, with the two underdogs covering the difference. Going into the championship weekend, the favorites are 4-6 in the playoffs.
If you are an experienced bettor, you know that it is best to start your bets before the lines can experience what could be a potentially unfavorable move. We’ve seen some movement since these lines were launched right after the matches were established, so let’s take a look at these initial odds and fix our choices.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Buccaneers at Packers
Opening Line: Packers -3.5
Total: O / U 51
Green Bay will host the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2007, which was Brett Favre’s last game as a Packer. The Packers had no problem with the Los Angeles Rams in the division round, beating them 32-18. Aaron Rodgers and the attack destroyed the Rams’ best defense, which accumulated 484 yards of total attack and 28 first descents. Both numbers are the most allowed by the Rams in one game throughout the season. Davante Adams managed nine passes for 66 yards and a touchdown, but Allen Lazard was the main recipient of the game. He took four passes for 96 yards, including a 58-yard score that put the game on the ice. While Green Bay’s defense kept Los Angeles just 244 yards from total attack, the secondary was sometimes irregular. Josh Reynolds, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson all succeeded in finding open space against the Packers’ cornerbacks, which is something to watch out for in the future.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers did not have much production of their wide receivers against the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round, but still managed to escape with a 30-20 win. Brady pitched for 199 yards and two touchdowns, while Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 125 yards on the ground. It was the defense that ruled the day, however, when the Buccaneers kept Drew Brees just 134 yards in passing, eliminated him three times and forced a total of four spins. Devin White proved that he is one of the best linebackers in the league, registering 11 tackles, recovering a fumble and catching an interception, which returned the other side for 28 yards. Brady was able to avoid 0-3 against Brees and the Saints this season, and he further solidified his position in NFL history. This will be Brady’s ninth participation in the conference championship in the past 10 years, and his NFL record at 14th overall in his 21-year career in the NFL. To put this in perspective, Brady has more conference championship wins than any other quarterback has appearances!
The choice: These two teams met in week 6, when the Packers were eliminated, 38-10, in Tampa. It was the worst defeat of the Green Bay season. What’s interesting is that both the Packers game and the Buccaneers game last weekend registered exactly 50 points. Give me the Over and I’ll take the Packers to cover 3.5 points too.
Chiefs accounts
Opening Line: Bosses -3
Total: O / U 54
The last time the Bills and Chiefs met in the postseason, it was in the AFC Championship Game of 1993. The Bills won 30-13 on the way to their fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance. With the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory over the Cleveland Browns this Sunday, Kansas City will become the first team since the 2002-04 Philadelphia Eagles to host three consecutive conference championship games. Andy Reid coached these two teams! Chad Henne was forced to end the game after Patrick Mahomes left due to a concussion, and managed to recover with a few clutch moves. Still, everyone hopes Mahomes will be able to accomplish everything he needs this week to prepare for the conference championship game. An interesting statistic to take into account when entering this confrontation is that the Chiefs have been nine consecutive games without winning by more than six points. Since week 9, they are 1-8 against the spread.
For the first time since 1993, the Bills participate in the AFC Championship Game. They defeated the Baltimore Ravens in a low-scoring game, and it was really the defense that shone. Buffalo held Baltimore with just three points and Taron Johnson’s six-meter pick was what Josh Allen called a “franchise change move”. Bills have already won eight consecutive games – seven of them by double digits – and have a +136 points differential during that period. However, Allen and Stefon Diggs will have to put together a great game if they want to take down this explosive team of Chiefs.
The choice: These two teams also met in the regular season in Week 6, when the Chiefs defeated Bills 26-17. Mahomes’ injury and how awkward it gives me a break, but if you’re forcing me to choose sides now, I’ll go ahead and take the Chiefs to cover. I have published a weekly update of the NFL playoff keys since the start of the playoffs, and my choice of Packers-Chiefs in the Super Bowl has not changed. As for the total, I’m leaning towards Under.