AUSTELLE, Georgia – Jada Longchamp was about 300 meters from the large campaign stage planted in one of the many mega parking lots in Cobb County, Georgia.
Longchamp, 54, had come both to hear Raphael Warnock speak and to reinforce the agitation of a friend’s pandemic economy: t-shirts, bags and masks with text inspired by a conversation the two women had a few days after the presidential election about political interests in Georgia. The merchandise said “Georgia saves America”.
“It is partly a desire and partly a reminder that this is what we, voters in Georgia, have the power to do,” she said.
The merchandise moved fast enough that, 15 minutes after the beginning of the Warnock rally in late December, she had only one bag and a few remaining T-shirts. The items also echoed a message that all of the country’s top elected officials have come to Georgia since Sunday.
Supporting evidence for the possible destruction of America differs by party and in advertisements, door hangers and postcards, text messages, online banners, visits by political agents, phone calls, club chats and Zoom calls. Ultimately, though, it all comes down to the high stakes of this most unusual pair of second-round Senate elections.
More than 7.7 million people are registered to vote in Tuesday’s second round. The results will determine which party controls the Senate and the policy making skills of the next Biden-Harris government. The early vote, along with the early hours of voting on Tuesday, indicates that Georgia, a consistently red state that went to Democrat Joe Biden in the November general election, may continue to defy expectations.
General turnout in second-round elections generally drops by 40 to 60 percent from the most recent general election, said Bernard Fraga, an associate professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta. Republicans have historically been more likely to vote in the runoff elections than Democrats. In Georgia, it seems that neither can be true this year.
In a state where voters are asked to identify their race, but not their party when they register, more than 85% of black voters tend to vote for Democrats, while about 70% of white voters tend to support Republicans. Across the country, but particularly in the South, party identification and race remain so closely linked that the ballots made so far in Georgia indicate that Democrats have entered the second round with an advantage.
Data released by the state shows that more than 3 million people voted in advance in the two Senate runoff elections, according to an analysis of state early voting data compiled by TargetSmart, a political data company that usually works for Democrats. That figure far surpasses the second round of the most recent general election for the Senate in 2008, when 2.1 million Georgians voted and a Republican candidate for the Senate prevailed. The number of previous ballots in the current second round of the Senate also indicates that about 20 percent fewer people in Georgia voted earlier than in the November general election.
In the current runoff contests, 100,000 people who did not vote in November also voted in advance, said Tom Bonier, chief executive of TargetSmart. Most of these voters – by some estimates, over 70,000 – have registered to vote since November. And of the 100,000 voters who did not participate in November, but who cast an early vote this time, about 40% were elected by black voters.
In fact, while all early voter turnout in Georgia’s second round is slightly behind that of the initial vote in the November general election, white voter turnout has lagged behind that of black Georgia voters.
“There are a lot of Republicans in Georgia, so it is possible, right now, for Republicans to win with big, big participation on election day,” said Bonier. “There is no denying that. But it is what it takes to win. Republicans are in the unusual position to enter the second round of election day backwards. “
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