The Philadelphia Eagles will certainly add quarterbacks this offseason, with Jalen Hurts currently serving as the only one on the list. In fact, it is just a question of what resources they will put in charge. Would they choose one with the sixth general choice or even switch to one? That will depend a lot on what the Eagles think they have at Hurts. In case you missed our review of Hurts’ debut season, you can find it here.
The 2021 recruiting class is strong, as four quarterback candidates – Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, Justin Fields of Ohio, Zach Wilson of BYU and Trey Lance of North Dakota – are all first-round blocks, and it is quite possible that all four are chosen from the top ten. And so, I think I should probably get acquainted with the four guys, and while I’m doing that, even though I’m not an NFL scout, I’m still going to give my opinion on what I saw.
On Wednesday we started with Wilson. Today we’re going to cover Lance.
For this exercise, I watched Lance’s four playoff games in 2019 against James Madison, Montana, Illinois and Nicholls.
Trey Lance overview
Lance had a red shirt year in 2018, and NDSU went 15-0, winning the FCS national championship behind Easton Stick. In 2019, Lance took over as a redshirt freshman, and once again Bison was undefeated (16-0), winning yet another FCS national championship. Lance won the Walter Payton Award, which is a kind of Heisman for the subdivision of the football league.
In total, Lance’s numbers were extremely impressive. He completed 192 of 287 passes (66.9%) for 2,786 yards (9.7 YPA), 28 TDs and 0 INTs. He also ran 169 times for 1100 yards (6.5 YPC) and 14 TDs.
However, he had a very low number of passing attempts. On a per game basis, their average numbers: 12 from 18 to 174 yards and 2 TDs.
In 2020, Lance was ready to build his 2019 campaign and move towards another chip, but COVID got it right, and NDSU only played one game, a victory over Central Arkansas. Lance released his first and last university INT in that game.
Competition level 👎
In 2016, the Eagles had to struggle to find out how Carson Wentz would make the transition from Division 1-AA football to the NFL. On the one hand, he was obviously playing against a lower level of competition. On the other hand, he was coming from a university offense that employed his share of pro-style concepts, which undoubtedly put him in a better position to make the leap to the NFL than guys like Ohio State Cardale Jones or Paxton Lynch of Memphis, to name two examples, which carried out more basic offenses.
But in addition to worrying about Lance jumping from the NDSU to the NFL, you also have the fact that Lance tried only 318 passes in college (against 612 for Wentz) and started just 17 games in total. If you’re writing Lance, you’re doing it because you’re willing to take a big leap of faith in your physical characteristics.
Athletic size / measurements 💪
Lance is listed at 6 ft-4, 226 pounds and is built like a brick house. The comps you will see for him include Steve McNair and Cam Newton. In the field, he can run for you or through you, and he is likely to test well on his professional day.
Lance’s physical profile – his size, strength and speed – is his greatest appeal.
Accuracy 😐
Lance completed 65.4% of his passes and applied only 1 INT in his college career, so his accuracy looks good on paper. However, I wouldn’t call it strength, especially when shooting deep into the field. Although Lance got his share of bombs right (sometimes right in the money), he also left a lot of great playing opportunities on the pitch, and he misses in all directions. He will shoot, shoot, shoot too far and throw the ball five yards off the field.
But he will also lose his share of layups, in which he will bounce the ball to the recipients in the plane, or the placement of the ball will be a little wrong in the conclusions for the recipients in the race, causing them to slow down strides, limiting thus the YAC potential.
Arm strength 💪
No worries there. He can tear it up.
Mobility 🧱
Lance’s running style is similar to that of Jalen Hurts, in the sense that he is a competitive runner who can break blocks and is willing to initiate contact with defenders.
Most of the time, the first defender was unable to take Lance down. This will change some things in the NFL, but the point is that putting it on the ground is not easy. Lance had more than his share of pile handling races, like the one shown here at the 2:02 mark:
Of course, there is a drawback to this, as quarterbacks with this type of style tend to have a much shorter lifespan than pocket passersby. He will have to be more judicious about when to get extra yards and when to surrender to the NFL.
Release / Mechanics 🚩
The actual release of Lance’s arm is fine. However, he has a peculiarity that will have to be fixed by whoever summoned him. When he throws a deep shot or puts something extra on the ball in tight shots in the middle of the field, he dips his back leg and explodes with the lower half to get more strength in the shot. For example:
This has to go. In the NFL, you don’t have time for this additional obstacle, and that extra movement is probably affecting your accuracy in throwing strength.
Pocket presence 🤷♂️
I didn’t think Lance got out of his pocket too soon when the rush was approaching, which is an advantage. The concern for me would be that he was too confident in being able to get rid of the pass brokers because he has the physical capacity to do so. As Eagles fans have seen repeatedly throughout Carson Wentz’s tenure, this approach has led to many shortcomings. Lance had four fumbles in 2019, which is not a huge number, but they don’t do pass rushers in the state of Montana like they do professionals. In the NFL, these guys are going to take the ball.
Ability to play games 👍
Lance commonly converted thirds into long legs, and, as would be expected of a player with his athletic profile, he managed to escape his pocket and make off-schedule moves. (I will note here, however, that playing the race didn’t seem to be the strength I expected.)
Intangibles 😍
Launching 0 INTs in 2019 kind of speaks for itself. Lance is clearly a good decision maker. He also never looked shaken in any of the games I watched (all the playoff games), although, to be fair, Bison almost always had the lead. There is practically no Lance tape playing from behind. Obviously, winning all the games is great, but it would be nice to see how he would have dealt with more adversities in the game. As for his endurance, watch any game of his and watch how he gets up after every shot he takes as a runner.
Age 🐣
He’s only 20 years old. He will be 21 in May.
But Carson Wentz came from North Dakota and that ended badly. Should we put some stock in it? 🙄
No. Shut up. What idiocy.
Worthy of the sixth general choice?
It depends on how patient you are willing to be with him. If you want immediate results from a positional player, you’ll get it from guys like Penei Sewell, Ja’Marr Chase or DeVonta Smith.
However, if you same value the position of defender (as the Eagles do), and you are not sure what you have in Hurts, Lance is a more talented player physically with a higher ceiling. He will only need time to solve problems and become a more accurate passer.
You choose Lance if you think he might be the next Josh Allen, who was another physically talented quarterback with precision problems from a small school. Allen had a spectacular 2020 season, but went through tough times before getting there.
| Josh Allen | Comp-Att (Comp%) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Assessment |
| 2018 | 169-320 (52.8%) | 2,074 (6.5) | 10-12 | 67.9 |
| 2019 | 271-461 (58.8%) | 3,089 (6.7) | 20-9 | 85.3 |
| 2020 | 396-572 (69.2%) | 4,544 (7.9) | 37-10 | 107.2 |
Whether the city of Philadelphia will have the patience to allow a guy like Lance to succeed is a debate for another day, but if you are the Eagles, you better feel good about your ability to ignore criticism and stay away from social media like him grows as a player.
Spoiler: The Eagles won’t be good in 2021, and they probably won’t be good in 2022 either, so they look like a reasonable landing spot for a quarterback who may need a few years before they really start to shine.
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