Dutch vote amid strict coronavirus restriction

Dutch voters on Monday went to the polls in a general election that it is widely seen as a referendum on how the government is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

Current and interim Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are expected to win a fourth term, although his party has been shaken by scandals and accusations of mismanaging the pandemic. .

Three days of voting started on Monday morning and will end on Wednesday night, with voting spread due to the ongoing public health crisis.

Opinion polls show that VVD is ahead of the bloc in terms of voter popularity, although it is followed by the far-right nationalist Freedom Party, led by the controversial figure Geert Wilders.

Four polls published last week predicted Rutte’s TLIG party could have between 30 and 40 seats in parliament, compared with polls showing that Wilders’ Freedom Party could win 19 to 24 seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal party is seen winning the third highest number of seats, with an expectation of 15-19 seats.

As polls indicate, the TLIG is unlikely to win enough seats to rule alone in the 150-seat parliament, the House of Representatives, making another coalition government a likely outcome.

This may not be so straightforward; in 2017, the VVD took 225 days to form a coalition government with three other parties (the Christian Democratic Appeal, Democrats 66 and Christian Union) – the longest time required to form a coalition in Dutch history.

Rutte’s VVD has gone through some turbulent months beyond the pandemic. A recent child benefit scandal, in which thousands of families have been unjustly accused of child welfare fraud, prompted the entire government to resign en masse in January.

Rutte has remained in a caretaker role ever since and remains a popular politician, despite some unpopular restrictions implemented during the pandemic. He is widely expected to lead a fourth cabinet, although the composition of an expected coalition remains uncertain.

Capital Economics Europe economist Melanie Debono warned in a note last week that forming a coalition government could take even longer than the last record of 225 days, although she noted that this is unlikely to have an impact on the economy.

“In the Dutch multiparty system, the TLIG will not be able to govern alone and greater than normal fragmentation means that forming a coalition may take longer than the 2017 225-day record! But these deadlocks have rarely had much of an impact on the economy The VVD is campaigning for a higher minimum wage and lower taxes for full-time workers. While some of these plans will be diluted when the reality of coalition policy falls, other parties are also advocating a supportive fiscal policy. ” .

The Netherlands is one of the largest and most prosperous economies in the EU and did not do so badly during the pandemic. The Dutch economy contracted 4% in 2020, compared to the 6.8% contraction experienced by the euro area in general.

Economists largely attribute this economic contraction better than feared by the country’s first less stringent blockade last spring, its export-oriented economy and the fact that it does not depend so much on tourism – a sector that collapsed during the pandemic.

“The Dutch economy did relatively well in 2020, “noted Debono,” and after expanding in the fourth quarter (the fourth quarter), it closed the year closer to its pre-crisis level than other major economies. The recession was superficial because the first blockade was not as rigid as elsewhere, the Dutch were already more accustomed to working from home and tourism is a relatively small part of the economy. “

The government’s attitude towards the blockade changed over the winter, however, as cases increased dramatically, prompting the government to implement a strict block (by Dutch standards) in January. The tougher measures, including an evening curfew, have rioted in parts of the country.

Like its neighbors, the Netherlands has seen an increase in Covid infections in recent weeks, which has been largely attributed to the spread of more virulent variants of the virus.

In addition to the difficulties, the Netherlands was one of the last countries in the bloc to start its vaccination program against the coronavirus, and immunizations advanced slowly.

The vaccination program will undoubtedly be further undermined after the decision of the Netherlands (as well as many other countries) to stop vaccination using the AstraZeneca / Oxford University shot on concerns about possible side effects, despite the World Health Organization. Health say that there is no link between the injection and an increased risk of developing blood clots.

Bars, restaurants and gyms are closed, while non-essential stores have been allowed to reopen to a limited number of customers, by appointment only, in early March. As of March 16, stores will be able to reopen to a limited number of customers, as long as there is enough space between them. The curfew – the first since the Nazi occupation in World War II – is expected to remain in effect until the end of March. Public meetings of more than two people are also prohibited.

In the meantime, anti-blocking sentiment continues with the riot squad using a water cannon to halt an anti-blockade demonstration in The Hague this weekend. This latest blockade means that the country’s economy is unlikely to avoid a contraction in the first quarter.

“Although the government started to facilitate the blockade from 3^rd In March, many businesses will have closed for two-thirds of the first quarter (the first quarter) and others, for example, restaurants, throughout. But the Netherlands is still comparatively well positioned and, as elsewhere, GDP growth is expected to recover from the second quarter, “said Debono of Capital Economics.