DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) – Take off your masks as soon as you enter. Bars crowded and pulsating as if we were 2019. Social media stars shaking bottles of champagne. DJs playing party music on brunches lasting several hours.
Since becoming one of the first destinations in the world to open up to tourism, Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, has called itself the ideal place for pandemic holidays. It cannot allow otherwise, analysts say, as the virus shakes the foundations of the city-state’s economy.
With its cavernous shopping malls, frantic construction and legions of foreign workers, Dubai was built on the promise of globalization, from a large part of the aviation, hospitality and retail sectors – all hard hit by the virus.
Now reality is reaching the emirate of big dreams. With the peak of the tourist season in full swing, coronavirus infections are reaching unprecedented levels. Daily case counts almost tripled last month, forcing Britain to close its travel corridor with Dubai last week. But, in the face of a growing economic crisis, the city does not close its doors.
“Dubai’s economy is a house of cards,” said Matthew Page, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Your competitive advantage is to be a place where the rules don’t apply.”
While most countries have banned tourists from the UK for fear of the rapidly spreading virus variant found there, Dubai, home to some 240,000 British expats, has kept its doors open for the holiday. Emirates operated five daily flights to London Heathrow Airport.
Within days, the new strain of the virus had reached the emirates, but that did not stop TV and football stars from escaping the British blockade and winter weather for Dubai’s bars and beaches – without having a coronavirus test before to board. Scenes of pre-pandemic revelry were spread across British tabloids. Facing adverse reactions, Instagram influencers found at loud yacht parties were quick to proclaim that their travels were “essential”
Dubai was happy with the influx. Hotel occupancy rates rose to 71% in December, according to data provider STR. The London-Dubai air route was ranked the busiest in the world in the first week of January, said OAG, an aviation data analysis company.
“People are already tired of this pandemic,” said Iris Sabellano, from Dubai’s Al Arabi travel agency, adding that many of her clients were forced to be quarantined after the test was positive for the virus on arrival or before departure. . Travelers from a select list of countries do not need to test before traveling, but everyone should do so at Dubai airport.
“With vaccines being launched, they feel it is not the end of the world, they are not going to die,” she said.
For those who die from COVID-19, Emirates Airlines offers a $ 1,800 payment to help cover funeral costs.
As the outbreak worsens, it appears that the stampede will decrease. Israeli tourists, numbering in the tens of thousands after a standardization agreement between countries, have disappeared due to new quarantine rules. The decision to suspend the visa waiver for Israelis from the United Arab Emirates until July came into effect on Monday. Britain’s decision to impose a 10-day quarantine on those returning from Dubai threatens to destroy what remains of the tourism industry.
“The British represent a significant proportion of tourists and investors in Dubai,” said David Tarsh, a spokesman for ForwardKeys, a travel data analytics company. “Cutting that pipeline … is a complete disaster for the city.”
British transport secretary Grant Shapps tweeted that the government’s decision was motivated by the latest virus data from the UAE. In addition to daily infections, however, data is scarce. The United Arab Emirates does not disclose public information about disease groups or hospitalizations.
In the midst of an aggressive testing campaign, the country recorded more than 256,000 cases and 751 deaths. Analysts speculate that the UAE’s unique demographics – 90% of expatriates, mostly young healthy workers – prevented well-equipped hospitals from becoming overloaded and kept the mortality rate low, at 0.3%.
But that did not calm Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s most conservative neighbor and the country’s capital. Without explanation, Abu Dhabi kept its border with Dubai closed, despite promises to reopen at Christmas. Anyone crossing to Abu Dhabi must have a negative coronavirus test.
Relations between Dubai with many services and Abu Dhabi, rich in oil, may be strained. During the 2009 financial crisis, Abu Dhabi needed to rescue Dubai with a $ 20 billion bailout. This time, it is not clear whether Dubai can count on another cash injection, given the drop in global oil prices.
Even before the pandemic, Dubai’s economy was heading for another slowdown thanks to an unstable housing market, which has fallen 30% in value since the peaks of 2014. The emirate and its network of government-linked entities face billions of dollars in debt payments . The government has already stepped in to help Emirates Airlines, which received $ 2 billion in aid last year. Other indebted companies that invest in hospitality and tourism may need help, especially with events like the World Expo delayed by a year. S&P Global, a rating agency, estimates that Dubai’s debt burden will be about 148% of gross domestic product if industries linked to the state are included.
Under pressure, authorities seized vaccines as the only way to contain the outbreak. On the front pages of newspapers linked to the state, there are stories promoting the mass vaccination campaign, which officials say is the second fastest in the world after Israel, with 19 doses distributed for every 100 people on Tuesday.
The UAE is offering the Chinese coronavirus vaccine Sinopharm to everyone, although its announcement on the effectiveness of the injection lacks data and details.. Demand has overwhelmed the supply of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in Dubai, where hotline operators say thousands of high-risk residents remain on a waiting list.
With the country breaking its infection record for seven consecutive days, Dubai’s governor, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, declared that widespread vaccination, not movement restrictions, “would accelerate our country’s complete recovery.”
But even if Dubai meets its goal of inoculating 70% of the population by the end of 2021, Moody’s Investors Service expects the UAE economy to take three years to recover.
“I don’t think Dubai’s days are numbered,” said Page, the Carnegie scholar. “But if the city were more modest and responsible, it would be a more sustainable place.”