Dude, I smelled last week at Homestead.
I was a little nervous because the lack of good data would make the race difficult to control and, as I found out, I was right.
Here’s what I wrote before the Dixie Vodka 400:
“This is the first race of the season on an intermediate track and the NASCAR Cup Series teams work hard in the off-season on these programs, so while last year’s results are important – it’s all we have to look at – it’s still a little bit of guessing game about which teams will bring the fastest cars to the track this afternoon.
As a result, I am taking a conservative approach when betting on the race today, especially in the future ”.
Of course, that doesn’t mean I held on completely, but instead I took less chances than normal and gravitated largely to the intermediate level riders, instead of getting heavy with one or two favorites.
While Tyler Reddick finished in second (#TheBrand) and Kyle Larson crossed the finish line in fourth, none of the four drivers I bet showed really winning speed, except perhaps Reddick in the final laps.
In short: I don’t feel very well with my bets from last week, although two finished in the top four.
What this means? Well, I’m even less confident this week than I was last week.
Although Homestead-Miami Speedway (last week’s race site) and Las Vegas Motor Speedway (this week’s race site) are both 1.5-mile tracks, they are extremely different.
In fact, they are so different that we can’t take advantage of Homestead so much to support us in Las Vegas.
As a result, I will take another conservative betting approach at 1.5 thousandths until we start depositing more data in the middle bands.
For the record, I started by taking Chase Elliott at 11-1 on Thursday, so the bet below is with the Chevy nº 9 already locked on my card.
NASCAR in Las Vegas Pick
* Odds starting on Sunday at 7am ET
Alex Bowman (22-1) to win
Hendrick’s teams were very fast in Homestead, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean I want to bet on them blindly, the speed in Las Vegas and similar tracks last fall indicates that they could fight for victory again.
The NASCAR Cup Series cars will run on the same tire combination that was used in Las Vegas, Kansas and Texas last fall, which is noteworthy because all three tracks are also 2.4 kilometers long.
In these three races, Alex Bowman finished in the top five in each, posting the third best driver rating and executing the fourth fastest laps.
Again, the lack of data at our disposal means that this bet can explode spectacularly, but based on Bowman’s results in Las Vegas and this tire combination on similar tracks at the end of last season, I believe there is enough value in his 22-1 price tag.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@ PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I place on today’s Pennzoil 400.
More NASCAR choices in Las Vegas: