The Guardian
Brady or Mahomes? Our predictions for the Super Bowl Chiefs x Buccaneers
Will Tampa Bay become the first team to win a championship at their stadium? Or will the title champions retain the title? This year’s Super Bowl features some of the NFL’s greatest talent, including, clockwise from the left, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Composite: Reuters, Getty, AP What the Chiefs need to do to win … Be the Chiefs. This may seem irreverent, but neither team gives more credence to the ‘flip the switch’ theory than this season’s Chiefs. When they are fully engaged, when they are in full leadership, there is not much that any other team in the league can do to stop them. There are defensive flaws, but at some point, Patrick Mahomes will have the ball. Even with an excellent defense, Tampa will have a hard time slowing down the Mahomes-Hill-Kelce triumvirate. OC With his two main offensive tackles probably out of this confrontation, it seems to be a tough sledge for the Chiefs on the edge. Look for Andy Reid to dial many screen passes to capitalize on the speed and flexibility of his back and receivers – especially from Tyreek Hill. AL Win the battle of the turns. Brady threw three interceptions against the Green Bay Packers, but the Packers only managed to score on one of the following possessions. If the Bucs do that against KC, the game could end quickly. HF Eliminate the deep ball. Keep two safety devices in the field so that Bucs are forced to run. You can’t play chicken with Brady like the Packers did – it just ends in one way. Well, unless the offense explodes it can also. Reid will need an extra touch of trickery to confuse Tampa. That or throw it out to Hill. GS What Bucs need to do to win … Shorten the game. The Bucs have proved that they can change various styles this season. They can win with their exceptional defense. They can count on Tom Brady to participate in a shooting. Against the Chiefs, while not so much fun, they will have to rely on the run-game to extend their attacks against the weak Chiefs front in order to contain the score. Take Brady to the final race with a chance to win the game, that should be the plan. OC Sic Jason Pierre-Paul, William Gholston and Ndamukong Suh in the Chiefs’ reserve tackles. Mix a little at the beginning. (Transfers to Leonard Fournette & Co are very predictable.) And capitalize on every opportunity to connect with receivers in the field, a standout for Bruce Arians throughout the season. If Antonio Brown is looking for a time to shine, this is it. AL Brady’s doesn’t want to enter a pitch competition with Mahomes at this point in his career. Your advantage will be in your experience. He doesn’t want to be a pure game manager here, he’s going to have to connect some long balls to win, but if he focuses on making the right move instead of trying to make the big move, his team will have a chance. HF Tampa should play to his strengths and blitz early and often. They have the pedigree – nine sacks and two wins against Rodgers this season – and can slow Mahomes down by attacking an offensive line without his two initial tackles. You risk dying for a thousand cuts in the form of Tyreek and Travis, but Todd Bowles must be brave to limit Kansas City’s score. GS Key player for Chefs… Patrick Mahomes. Of course it is Mahomes. Going with anyone else would be a modern choice. Bucs could execute the perfect game plan. They could play as well as imaginable on both sides of the ball. However, if Mahomes comes along and plays his best, there is nothing anyone can do to stop him. OC Beyond the obvious? We go with Tyrann Mathieu, whose powers of anticipation and interruption emit great vibrations from Ed Reed. He, not Mahomes, is Tom Brady’s real opponent – and the honey badger will make GOAT pay for all those 50-50 balls he likes to play so much. Mathieu intercepted Brady on a dropped ball in the week 12 match. AL Travis Kelce. We talked about Brady v Mahomes, but what about Kelce v Gronkowski? Since Gronkowski’s (temporary) retirement, Kelce has struggled to overtake him as the best tight end in the league of all time. A Super Bowl victory over a diminished Gronk would be more of a symbolic touchstone, but it would not harm your case. HF Tyrann Mathieu. We can be sure that Brady will take risks through the air, so Mathieu’s ability to diagnose and demolish receiver routes will need to be triggered to stop Tampa’s passing attack. Putting Brady under pressure to doubt whether Mathieu is going to skip a route consistently can frustrate the veteran and make costly mistakes. GS key player for the Bucs… Todd Bowles. Not a player, but the defensive coordinator of the Bucs. Tampa’s defense played at the championship level throughout the season. There are not many schematic fireworks. Instead, Bowles depends on a core group of plays and their players, all playing at the highest level possible. Against Mahomes, he will need some wrinkles or new looks to create a negative move or two. OC Lavonte David, one of the best linebackers the game has ever seen. Your ability to approach ball carriers and stop or even sometimes reverse your momentum should be especially useful against a skilled Chiefs unit, adept at stacking large yards upon receipt. Its side-to-side reach will be the key to keeping Coordinator Todd Bowles’ principles fold but don’t break. AL Leonard Fournette. Fournette was cut by the Jaguars and entered as a backing back for Tampa Bay. Now he is putting his best job of the season into the playoffs, including a surprising touchdown against Green Bay. first descents, this will open the strategy book for Brady. HF A shootout beckons, despite the cannons silencing at Raymond James Stadium (couldn’t the cannons have fired at the Chiefs too? Why do I care so much about the cannons?). Bucs can intimidate the Chiefs ‘defense using Mike Evans’ superior size and strength in the red zone. The extra attention he receives will also create holes for others to accumulate points. GS A bold prediction … The Weeknd has more than one song. I mean, really? The weekend? For the Super Bowl? Am I old now? OC Someone is going to do a trick. Either the Chiefs build on the iconic “Four Tops” they launched on the 49ers last year, or the Aryans make a nervous response. Either way, you will love the language of love for football. AL How about a first quarter without goals? After all the talk about this being an offensive confrontation, perhaps both sides will be looking forward to the performance early on and we will see many three e-outs, some offensive errors and even a field goal lost in the first 15 minutes. HF Tony Romo sees Bill Belichick in the crowd wearing a Jack Sparrow mask as a disguise. Naturally, Romo cannot contain his excitement and orchestrates a joyful meeting in the field after Brady raises a Lombardi without his mentor. “This is my boy,” says Belichick. GS The final score will be… Chiefs 31-24 Buccaneers. The combination of Brady and Bowles is as good as you can expect when trying to knock the Chiefs off their perch. No one is able to stop the Chiefs, but all the Bucs demand is a defense that slows down the Mahomes-Andy Reid machine, even for one or two possessions. Tampa has the talent and the team to execute that plan. I have the Bucs giving Brady a chance at final possession, but getting close. The Chiefs’ offensive power, despite all Bowles’s kindness, is very overwhelming. And even when play is interrupted, no one is better off the script than Mahomes. The Chiefs step back and Mahomes takes home a second consecutive MVP. OC Chiefs 30-29 Buccaneers. As exposed as Mahomes is on the edge, one can easily see Bucs’ defense forgetting the QB wheels until it’s too late. Whether taking a piece of yards or buying time to throw darts at Cheetah & Co, eventually Mahomes will win your heart. AL Chiefs 34-17 Buccaneers. Look for the teams to keep him closed for a while, but in the fourth period, the Chiefs will take the lead and jump with one of those bursts of Mahomes where he gives two touchdowns in the blink of an eye. HF Chiefs 30-33 Buccaneers. I said that in the middle of the season and I will say it again, Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to win the Super Bowl. Attacking Brady is a foolish mission, especially now that he is an underdog. Six titles and his team not being a favorite is proof of how good the Chiefs are, but Brady will have the last word in the game at the last minute and possibly which QB is really the best. Same time next year, Tom. GS