A possibly worrying variant of the coronavirus first identified in India – so new that it has no official name – has been found in California by scientists at Stanford University.
Dubbed the “double mutant” variant by the BBC and others, the variant is causing concern among some scientists because it contains not just one, but two worrying mutations in its genetic makeup that have been identified among other worrying variants being tracked by the US Control Centers. and Disease Prevention.
“We don’t know how these two mutations behave when they are paired,” said Benjamin Pinsky, director of the Stanford Clinical Virology Laboratory, in an interview on Monday.
The existence of the newly discovered variant was first reported by the Indian government on March 24, Pinsky said, after an outbreak of coronavirus cases was detected in the country’s second most populous state, Maharashtra, whose largest city is Mumbai. The new variant accounts for about 15% to 20% of new cases of coronavirus there.
A day later, on March 25, Stanford’s lab identified the same variant in a sample of coronavirus taken from a patient in the San Francisco Bay area.
“On the 25th, we got our sequence back and found that, ‘Wow, this is actually the same variant they’re talking about,'” Pinsky said. “So this rapid spread across the globe is quite impressive and also a little worrying.”
Why this new variant can be worrying
Stanford’s lab identified a confirmed case of the new variant and seven presumed cases among samples from patients in the bay area, Pinsky said.
None of the other variants monitored by federal officials have the same combination of these two mutations, known as L452R and E484Q, the last of which is closely related to a better-known mutation known as E484K.
The L452R mutation has become well known in California as one found in the California variant (B.1.427 / B.1.429), resulting in a strain that is believed to make the virus more infectious and may cause reduced immunity in people who have been vaccinated.
The E484Q mutation is closely related to the E484K mutation, which was found in variants first identified in South Africa (B.1.351); Brazil (P.1 and P.2) and New York (B.1.526). The E484K mutation is also of concern because it can give the virus the ability to partially evade the protective immune response among inoculated people or those who have survived a conventional COVID-19 disease.
“What we don’t know is how these [two mutations] will behave when they are put on the same virus, ”said Pinsky. “There is a fair amount of information about these [two mutations] individually. But will it be worse if they are together? We don’t really know how they will interact. ”
The Stanford laboratory routinely performs genetic analysis for coronavirus samples among COVID-19 patients in the bay area. They screen for three worrying mutations: L452R, E484K and N501Y. The N501Y mutation – thought to increase the transmissibility of the coronavirus – is found in the United Kingdom variant (B.1.1.7), as well as in the South Africa variant and one of the Brazilian variants (P.1).
Stanford’s laboratory was able to detect the E484Q mutation of the new variant, although the laboratory was designed to detect only the closely related E484K mutation. “So it’s a bit of a coincidence that we were able to identify that,” Pinsky said.
The variant highlights the importance of vaccinations
The emergence of the new variant underscores the importance of vaccinating as many people as possible quickly. The best-known New York variant, B.1.526, is believed to have emerged in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Manhattan and spread quickly throughout the city, said Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease specialist, at a news conference last month. past.
One of the ways that variants can arise is by infecting a single person with a compromised immune system, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in March.
A coronavirus infection in a person with a weak immune system “can be the breeding ground for variants to arise for the simple reason that if you don’t eliminate the virus quickly, you’ll have an immunological selection within a particular individual,” it means that the virus can evolve in that person to become even more robust.
“This is probably how it all started with [New York’s B.1.526 variant]”, Said Fauci on March 1st.
The only way to stop the creation of new variants is to delay the transmission of the virus.
A potential nightmare scenario could result from the spread of variants like the one that hit Brazil. The city of Manaus was one of the hardest hit in the world with a conventional coronavirus strain, and now it appears that there are many substantial reinfections with the new Brazilian variant, Dr. Stefano Bertozzi, professor of health policy and emeritus rector of the School of Public Health UC Berkeley said at a UC San Francisco forum last month.
However, the immunity produced by vaccines is believed to be better than the immunity produced by surviving COVID-19.
And while it is believed that some variants result in a slight reduction in the effectiveness of some vaccines, some experts say that the reduction is only equivalent to mild to moderate illnesses.
The vaccines that are now available and in development have been essentially 100% protective against death – even in places where variants have circulated widely.
For example, the COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and AstraZeneca have been studied in South Africa, and “they have all shown reduced efficacy compared to studies carried out in other parts of the world where [the South African B.1.351 variant] was not present, ”said Pinsky. “However, it is important to note that all vaccines are very effective in preventing serious illness and death. Basically, all vaccines are 100% effective at this so far. “
“Vaccines can really handle these variants effectively,” said Andy Slavitt, senior consultant on the White House COVID-19 response team, on Monday.
‘They were worried’
When asked about the new variant, Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said, “We, like everyone else, are concerned.”
“The tool that we now have for everyone is to avoid as much transmission as possible, because that means that the variants also don’t circulate,” said Ferrer at a news conference on Monday. “The more we have transmission, the more [that] the variants take over ”.
The United Kingdom variant is the most prevalent variant detected in the United States. More than 15,000 cases have been reported in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. In contrast, the South African variant has been detected in more than 300 cases, and the Brazilian variant P.1 has been identified in more than 200 cases – and none of these variants have been detected in all states.
In California, the two most dominant variants are the California and the United Kingdom variants. The California Department of Public Health has recorded more than 9,000 cases of the California variant and 851 of the United Kingdom variant. There were 35 cases of the Brazilian variant P.1, 33 cases of the New York B.1.526 variant, 22 cases of the Brazilian variant P.2 and 10 cases of the South African variant.
In LA County, the South African, British and Brazilian variants have been detected, but none of them are dominating the area, said Ferrer.
“We would like to keep things that way. So, let’s all do our part: we will get vaccinated when our turn comes, ”she said.
The emergence of the new variant comes at a time when other pandemic indicators in California are better than in most parts of the country.
“California now has the lowest positivity rate in the country, ”Governor Gavin Newsom tweeted on Monday. Among all states, California also has the third lowest rate of coronavirus cases per capita in the past week in the country, according to the CDC, with 46 new cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents in the past seven days. Only Oklahoma and Arkansas reported lower rates.
Michigan, for its part, has the worst case rate in the country, with 452.5 cases per 100,000 residents last week, followed by New Jersey and New York.
Still, officials have expressed concern that the situation in California could get worse if people suddenly decide to stop wearing masks and crowd into crowds. Only a third of Californians are at least partially vaccinated.
“Our reality, with more variations and increases in cases across the country and in much of the world, and much more mixtures here in LA County, is such that we will need to continue to follow public health safety measures until more people are vaccinated if we want to maintain our earnings, ”said Ferrer.
Lin reported from San Francisco, Money from Los Angeles.