The Miami Dolphins cannot guarantee a spot in the AFC playoffs this weekend, but Miami certainly can see its playoff position improved with results across the league. It all starts, first, with a victory tonight against the Las Vegas Raiders. But there’s a lot more at stake – and here’s everything you need to know about Week 16 and the impacts on the Dolphins’ playoff chances for the end of the season.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
As mentioned earlier, many of the Miami playoff hopes revolve around finding victory tonight against the Raiders. With a win, the Miami playoff odds (according to FiveThirtyEight) jump from the 28% that are currently down to 46% before taking into account any other result this weekend or the next – which would be a “win” scenario and achievement ”for the Dolphins when they visit Buffalo Bills, champion of the AFC 2020 Eastern Division.
With a defeat for the Raiders, Miami’s playoff chances drop to just 7%.
New York Giants at the Baltimore Ravens
The impact on the Dolphins is negligible, because Miami already has an advantage over Baltimore based on current AFC records. With Baltimore facing an NFC opponent this weekend, only a small number of percentage points participate in the competition. If the Dolphins win and the Ravens lose, their playoff chances increase from 46% to 48%. A Ravens victory with a Dolphins victory has no impact on Miami’s postseason chances.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
This contest is another “low leverage” game for Dolphins. Both teams currently sit in front of the Dolphins in the playoff order – and a Colts victory only lowers the Dolphins’ chances in the playoffs to 42% in the circumstances in which we see a Miami victory tonight against the Raiders. A Steelers win does almost nothing for Miami – just extending Miami’s playoff chances from 46% with a win to 50%.
Cleveland Browns on New York Jets
Here’s your “high leverage” game for Dolphins this weekend, Dolphin fans. And before there’s a lot of sadness and disgrace about Miami needing a Jets to help secure a playoff spot, remember that the Jets just upset Rams last weekend for his first win. Add to that the Jets narrowly lost to the Patriots and Raiders last month and New York, at least, has been competitive most of the time.
If the Jets score a comeback and are paired with a Dolphins win, the chances of Miami’s playoffs rise to 68% – thanks to the Browns having a meeting with Pittsburgh in week 17, which gives Miami hope of a playoff spot, even if they end tied at 10 -6 with Cleveland at the end of the line.
Implications of week 17
The Dolphins’ best chances of victory in Week 17 come, of course, with Buffalo Bills sitting down to rest for the postseason. For that to happen, we will probably need to see Bills take second place in the AFC before their fight against Miami. This scenario unfolds with several results from Week 16 – but, fortunately, for Miami they are all quite direct.
Bills defeat Patriots
Colts defeat Steelers
Packers Defeat Titans
Bosses defeat Hawks
This group of four results paired with a Miami win technically decreases the chances of Miami’s playoff – but that doesn’t explain the fact that Buffalo has no up or down mobility in the conference standings and will almost certainly be a starter against the Dolphins at next week. This result, yet another Browns turn, would leave Miami with a 64% playoff chance before counting Buffalo’s personal decisions.