Disney will test the limits of ‘franchise fatigue’ in 2021

Julie Hyman, Brian Sozzi, Myles Udland and Dan Roberts of Yahoo Finance discuss the launch of ‘Wonder Woman in 1984’ and the box office outlook in 2021.

Video transcription

“Wonder Woman – 1984” was released over the weekend. And it came out both in streaming and in theaters. This was a much discussed change. $ 16.7 million was how much he made in that opening. Our Dan Roberts is here to talk about movies with us, although, as he told us at the break, he hasn’t seen “Wonder Woman – 1984” yet because many people didn’t like it. But what do you think of the release?

DAN ROBERTS: Yeah, I think the release is what’s so interesting here, Julie – kind of separate from whether people like the movie or not. And a lot of people didn’t like the movie, judging by Twitter. But the simultaneous release was announced only for this film long before Warner Brothers announced that it would do so with all of its 2021 films.

You know, the cinemas agreed to this, only once. And then Warner Media said, surprised, we will do that with all of our films in 2021 as well. And I think one type of detail in the plan that may be missing is that although it was released simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, it will only be on HBO Max for a month.

And this is the plan with all the other Warner Brothers 2021 films, the idea is to rush you. So, if you want to see the movie and don’t want to go to the cinema, you need to sign up for HBO Max. And you have to do that sooner or later.

Now Warner has not shared the broadcast numbers, but the $ 17 million at the box office on its opening weekend is pretty decent. I mean, it would be decent even at a time without a pandemic, but it is the best opening during the pandemic. Of course, that doesn’t mean much, but you know, better than “Tenet” did in the USA, although it was a very limited release in US theaters.

And we still have many cinemas closed in the United States, although most are now open. And that does not mean that people are comfortable to go. But I think that as we move into the first months of 2021, it will be very interesting to see what happens with cinemas. I mean, especially now that a vaccine is starting to be distributed, are we going to see more people comfortable going to the theater wearing a mask? It is still an internal space, and many people say, no, I will not do that.

Well, if there is a movie you want to see on HBO Max and you’re not ready to go to the movies, you’ll have to subscribe to HBO Max. So it’s an interesting move. And you know, it was enough success that Warner Brothers announced that it is accelerating the production of a third Wonder Woman movie. So you can judge by that.

Well, Dan, let’s take this and make the transition from the DC Universe to Marvel and the story you’re working on, which is the fatigue problem of the Disney franchise they’re facing in 2021. Now, you and I have discussed this for many years. I think they’ve had a franchise fatigue problem for a while. But then again, I’m not really a franchise guy. And I think you watch all these films that Disney releases, all the different Marvel films.

And almost all of them are good, at least as far as I can tell from your comments. And they haven’t screwed up yet. “Lion King” was a little strange. Some of the “Star Wars” films were just more or less. But generally, Disney got it right. What is the risk that you see next year?

DAN ROBERTS: Well, quickly, let’s separate the type of Marvel – that pillar – Star Wars or Lucasfilm. And then you are right. There are all the live action remakes from Disney. Just guys, I will mention that I am not a big fan of them. But it is worth saying that in the past, at least, judging by the history of how these things happened in theaters, there was no fatigue in the franchise.

I mean, the theory has so far not been correct. You know, those “Star Wars” movies, even “Rise of Skywalker” – the last one, which a lot of people said, you know, was a problem. The big, big “Star Wars” fans apparently hated it. I liked this movie. But you know, it worked really well. They all earn a billion dollars or more. I mean, all of these Marvel movies are big hits. “Avengers” – the biggest box office movie of all time, the last movie “Avengers”.

Now, all of that said, I really think that next year, 2021, and then in 2022, Disney will push that theory more than ever. You know, let me read a quick list of Marvel shows here. These are series that will arrive at Disney Plus in 2021 – “WandaVision”; “Falcon and the Winter Soldier;” “Loki”; “What if…?” which is an animated series; “Ms. Marvel” series. I mean, all of that, and then there won’t be a “Star Wars” spin-off until 2022, with “Andor”, which is a continuation of a character from “Rogue One”.

But look, even if you’re a Marvel fan, you know, you can’t watch all of those things, unless all you do in your spare time is watch these shows. I mean, you just can’t. In fact, I think in 2020, Disney was very smart, having only a single original series on Disney Plus, and that was “The Mandalorian”, which was a mega success. I think, arguably, Disney Plus, they took it slow.

But now, they are about to explode. And you know, it’s hard to imagine that the quality can be the same consistently with these Marvel spin-off shows at Disney Plus as it has been with the movies. Because you are right. Even if you’re not a Marvel fan, these MCU’s, Marvel Cinematic Universe, films – for the most part, they’re all pretty good. I mean, you could say that one is better than the other, but none of them is like trash.

Whereas, arguably – and sorry, folks, some of those DC movies – “Aquaman” – some of those films are trashy. And Marvel just tends to have a higher quality level. But man, they are going to fill Disney Plus with these original programs in 2021 and 2022. And I think that’s a lot.

Now that said, Disney Plus is trying to compete with Netflix. And Netflix also has a kitchen sink approach, where there are a ton of things. I just think it seems a little more obvious with Disney Plus because they are all part of existing franchises. They are prequels, sequences, spin-offs from the “Star Wars” universe, the Marvel universe and then a kind of classic Disney animated films being transformed into remakes or live action.

I mean, there will be a film with the origin story of Cruella de Vil, with Emma Stone playing the young Cruella de Vil. At some point, you have to laugh at these things. But again, so far, everything has been very successful. But they will really push that forward next year.

Yes they are. And we’ll see if it works. Meanwhile, my friend texted me: “Wonder Woman – 1984” was ridiculous. So let’s see if we can get any– I hate to watch the ripple effect. Who knows? I thought it was fun and fun. Dan Roberts, thank you very much. Appreciate. We will–

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