The numbers are growing, although two-thirds of the box office came from three family films. Still, the reopening of New York City has shown positive results.
The box office is going in the right direction. This may have been the best weekend in theaters in almost a year. And the initial signs are that, even with reduced capacities, the reopened cinemas in New York responded in an encouraging way.
With “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Disney) and “Tom & Jerry” (Warner Bros.) grossing over $ 6 million (the first since March 13 last year, just before the cinemas closed), the top 10 raised more than $ 23 million, with a total of more than $ 24 million. This is the same as December 25-27 (usually a massive weekend). This was also the best year-over-year performance since March, with business falling “only” 76% compared to most weeks close to 90%.
The fact is: this is a minimum limit to be exceeded. Why? With the restart of the second week of the Warners animation franchise, and especially with the release of Disney’s first animated film in theaters in more than a year, along with the premieres in New York, better performance seemed possible.
The most significant is the anemic display of “Raya”. The opening was hampered by the third largest Cinemark exhibitor and a handful of other players who did not show it based on the terms of the film’s rent. In most parts of the country, the film was still available and, where it wasn’t, it was an inconvenience for potential ticket buyers. This means that a gross loss of 20% is likely, otherwise, revenue of around $ 11 million. But that would still have been more than 20 percent less than “Tom and Jerry” last weekend.
Credit Warner Bros., who like Universal is aggressive with its home theater / platform strategy, with a smart move. When “Raya” finally set March 5 as its debut date, Warners, who had previously changed “Tom & Jerry” for this weekend starting in April, jumped to the previous week.
Leaving after “Tom and Jerry”, as well as the loss of some important cinemas, are the main reasons for the deficit of “Raya”. But perhaps more is at stake. Although the live-action / animation hybrid “Tom & Jerry” should have been secondary to a new studio title that considers animation to be a birthright, the reality is that as a brand, it immediately hit the family audience. “Raya” is an unknown, “serious” fantasy tale, not immediately identifiable.
Then there is the issue of home availability. In this early era of daily games, it is difficult to be sure. “Tom & Jerry” in theaters competed with HBO Max at no extra cost to subscribers. For the most part, signing up for a month on the platform would cost less than two or three movie tickets. But to see “Raya”, viewers would have to not only subscribe to Disney +, but pay an additional $ 29.99.
Theaters may seem like a more attractive alternative. But consumers are voting with their purchases. Less than three months ago, Disney + subscribers could see “Soul” at no extra cost when there were no cinemas available. “Mulan”, which had a similar initial PVOD cost, was soon available without a premium (“Raya” supposedly has a June 4 date for the same on the platform). So, perhaps your subscribers are resisting paying in theaters.
The likelihood, however, is that if the dates had been reversed and the missing theaters were scheduled, chances are that “Raya” would have premiered at almost the same gross value as “Tom and Jerry”. Still, they have a much more expensive title, as well as higher expectations, which would have been disappointing. Without access to PVOD outlet data, we have little basis for projecting your final financial destination. It opened in 32 other territories with $ 17.6 million, reaching a disappointing # 3 in China (similar to other recent studio results), but # 1 in Russia, Australia, Spain and most other locations (the top four Western European countries open in April or later).
The prognosis for “Chaos Walking” (Lionsgate) is bleak. One of the company’s most expensive productions (reported at $ 100 million) and with access to top-tier IMAX screens, the dystopian sci-fi film made less than $ 4 million over the weekend to take third place.
“Boogie” (Focus), the third new premiere, in 1,252 theaters managed $ 1.2 million, good enough for fourth place. The debut in the direction of the creator of “Fresh Off the Boat” Eddie Huang, was a perfect film for the New York market. The story of an Asian-American Queens basketball talent who found conflict between his dreams and the aspirations of his parents raised more than $ 5,000 in at least five of the city’s cinemas, along with two in the suburbs of New Jersey. These seven were among the ten best in the country, being the first or the second best overall. (Three Northern California drive-ins completed the list).
The remnants, despite the addition of New York, fell, on average, a little more than normal. Once again, a Warner Bros. title, similar to everyone since they started playing on HBO Max, dropped more than 50 percent over the second weekend, above normal.
Among the most limited or award-winning titles, “Nomadland” (Searchlight), although not reported, appears to have raised about $ 200,000. Reduction of 63 percent, which did not help to lose half of last week’s 1,200 cinemas. It is also being shown on Hulu. “Minari” (A24), also in PVOD, managed an estimate of $ 90,000 out of 120. “The Mauritanian” (STX) raised $ 85,000 out of 252 along with PVOD.
Whatever momentum is generated this week, it will be difficult to maintain in the short term. Next week there will be no broad new releases, and it may be April before we see any openings for this “good” one. But several signs in the past week suggest that the studios are gearing up for significant improvements starting in May. No guarantees, but optimists can be excited about these results.
Top 10
1. Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 75; Husa. budget: $ (unknown); also available on Premium VOD
$ 8,600,000 in 2,045 cinemas; PTA: $ 4,205; Cumulative: $ 8,600,000
2. Tom and Jerry (Warner Bros.) Week 2; Last weekend # 1; Also available on HBO Max
$ 6,600,000 (-52%) in 2,563 cinemas (+88); PTA: $ 2,575; Cumulative: $ 23,000,000
3. Chaos Walking (Lionsgate) NEW – Cinemascore: B; Metacritic: 40; Husa. budget: $ 100 million
$ 3,825,000 in 1,980 cinemas; PTA: $ 1,932; Cumulative: $ 3,825,000
4. Boogie (Focus) NEW – Cinemascore: C +; Metacritic: 57
$ 1,200,000 in 1,252 cinemas; PTA: $ 958; Cumulative: $ 1,200,000
5. The Croods: A New Age (Universal) Week 15; Last weekend # 2; also available in VOD
$ 780,000 (-38%) in 1,604 cinemas (-308); PTA: $ 486; Cumulative: $ 53,610,000
6. The little things (Warner Bros.) Week 6; Last weekend # 3
$ 550,000 (-41%) in 1,448 cinemas (-405); PTA: $ 380; Cumulative: $ 13,700,000
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros.) Week 11; Last weekend # 4; also available on Premium VOD
$ 511,000 (-28%) in 1,217 cinemas (-317); PTA: $ 420; Cumulative: $ 44.4 million
8. The sniper (Open Road) Week 8; Last weekend # 5
$ 500,000 (-29%) in 1,050 cinemas (-409); PTA: $ 476; Cumulative: $ 13,003,000
9. Judah and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) Week 4; Last weekend # 7; also available on HBO Max
$ 282,000 (-44%) in 984 cinemas (-366); PTA: $ 564; Cumulative: $ 4,500,000
10. Monster Hunter (Sony) Week 12; Last weekend # 8; also available on Video on Demand
$ 260,000 (-43%) in 1,074 cinemas (-166); PTA: $; Cumulative: $ 14,397,000
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