Well, I have continued to follow the Destiny 2 Dawning Community Challenge since it aired with its five different goal stages. It has always seemed like an achievement to reach the final goal of 1 billion, but now that we are deeply involved in it, it is clear that it is totally impossible without Bungie intervening to do something.
I was told that as soon as people were on winter holidays, the numbers would increase. Or again people got the dawn ship that generates the Spirit, that would help. Neither was true, and any gains from both were offset by a general lack of interest in the event, and the pace has only slowed down over time, the goal was higher.
The Destiny 2 players eliminated stage three yesterday close to zero, but the data values for the next stage were true and the target doubled from 250 million to 500 million, making it look like doubling back to 1 billion is really going to happen. There were rumors of a “buff stealth” for Bungie’s Dawning Spirit generation, but it didn’t work. There was an increase right after the restart, as people threw cookies for the new weekly rewards, but that didn’t last. About 20 hours later, the new progress bar changed only 6% (started at 50%).
Although yes, dawn runs until January 5, math doesn’t work here. To demonstrate this, reader Soren42 created a very simple and clean Google spreadsheet that is updated every few hours that you can follow here. (Update: here is one that is updated even more frequently).
This is where you are currently:
What this means is that we will reach the stage 4 goal in about a week at the current pace, it will take more than 22 days to reach the final goal of 1 billion, as long as it does not change. Unfortunately, The Dawning is only 13 days away, so it won’t even be close. Even if the target was 750 million, we would probably not achieve it either.
This has happened before, of course. Bungie had a similar situation during the Season of the Worthy, where it had to increase the multiplier of a community event that was not happening fast enough because it overestimated the final goal. There, the problem was the high numbers and the players did not want to be grinding at a public event that they had already done until death and did not like it in the first place. The problem here is that cultivating Dawning Spirit is painfully boring and unrewarding. You have poor souls as a streamer Chevy receiving 1,300% of your Personal Spirit requirement for triumphs through dedicated farming just to see the progress bar move by perhaps 1% during your game session.
The other problem is that we have no idea what the final prize is. The symbol says something “exotic”, a rarity, but Destiny players know it can be anything from an exotic sparrow to an exotic from the past, as apparent heir, to a random exotic drop. The only thing I can see as an award that would be truly “motivating” and would make the community come together to work harder would be to know that it was a new coveted exotic catalyst (Thorn!) Or a new exotic period. But we have no idea.
There is a contingent of Destiny players who want us to fail in challenge A) just to see what happens and B) teach Bungie that community events like this are kind of bad and useless and need to be reworked. I don’t disagree with that.
My guess is that we will see Bungie jump with a progress multiplier at some point, if things continue to look bad. Otherwise, who knows, we may be wrong and never know what the final mysterious prize is. But I doubt it.
I would tell you to keep grinding, but I mean, no. It is impossible at this point, unless something changes, then we will see what happens next. The ball is in Bungie’s side.
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