Despite less external activity with the closure of businesses and schools, 2020 saw a dramatic increase in homicides.
The increase was due to a number of factors, experts in criminology told CNN. The pandemic closed schools and businesses, leading to unemployment. This meant that unemployed children and adults were stranded at home, which led to increasing levels of stress and anxiety, especially in low-income households.
The virus also changed the way police officers do their jobs – due to illness and social detachment – which, in turn, led to fewer police officers on the streets in areas that needed crime prevention most.
“It’s almost as if these communities were just with their heads above water, and then Covid hit and they just sank,” said Bocanegra.
In addition to homicides, other violent crimes – aggravated and assault with firearms – also increased in the spring in the summer. Aggravated muggings increased by 15% in summer and 13% in autumn, while gun robberies increased by 15% and 16%, according to the report.
No connection between summer protests and rising homicides, experts say
While homicides increased, non-violent crimes – robberies, thefts and drug offenses – decreased because many businesses were closed and fewer people were on the streets, the report said.
However, the report said that “the connection, if any, between social unrest and increased violence remains uncertain.”
Richard Rosenfeld, criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis told CNN that the same neighborhoods that witness police violence are the same neighborhoods where the increase in crime is concentrated. These communities have never had a strong or positive relationship with the police, so it leads people to resolve legal issues on their own, he said.
“We have two forces at work. We have the pandemic and social unrest surrounding police violence, the combination of the two main factors forms a deadly combination. This explains the abrupt and the moment of the increase and the magnitude of the increase (in homicides)” said Rosenfeld.
What is missing from the assumption that connects the protests to the rise in homicides is “good evidence,” said Rosenfeld.
In other words, the protesters were not committing the crimes, he said.
Bocanegra, the Chicago program director, told CNN that there were protests in the suburbs, but these areas have not seen an increase in homicides.
“Those who are driving the violence, were fighting even more before Covid,” he said.
The government needs to approach violence like Covid, experts say
The pandemic has shed new light on how to combat rising violence in cities, experts told CNN.
On the one hand, the coordination of local, state and federal governments to mitigate the spread of the virus has never been seen in the United States before – and criminal justice experts say the same approach should be applied to the issue of violence.
“Violence is a symptom of the unrest and inequality that we have seen for decades in our communities. We are not going to change that overnight, we need to come up with a 10 to 20 year plan, ”said Bocanegra. “Unless we are able to think about future generations … we will continue to have these conversations 20 or 30 years from now.”
Jens Ludwig, who heads the Criminal Laboratory at the University of Chicago, told CNN that data on armed violence and mental health for people aged 18 to 24 go hand in hand.
“So if you look at the problem of armed violence. It usually focuses on young people, say, 18 to 24. If you look at the CDC data on mental health … people 18 to 24 are showing signs of anxiety, depression, increased substance use in response to the pandemic and in trying to deal with the pandemic, “he said.
Bocanegra said he was hopeful that the country and its city of Chicago would be able to take the lessons learned from Covid-19 and apply them to armed violence. He told CNN he wonders why there has been no such response in the past.
“Is it because Covid does not discriminate on the basis of gender, creed or class? Or is it because most gun problems affect blacks and browns and people with mental health problems?” he said. “Who determines which lives are worth more than others?”
Going into 2021, Rosenfeld said that previous years will provide guidance for the coming months. In 2015, there was an 11% increase in homicides across the country after protests sparked by Ferguson that spread in 2016.
“We may see an increase in homicides next year,” he said.
CNN’s Priya Krishnakumar, Peter Nickeas and Adrienne Broaddus contributed to this report.