That 52-point lead over Rubio represents a huge increase since July – the last time Fabrizio took a vote among the three and found DeSantis ahead by just 11 points over Rubio.
“To run for president, you need to have your home state, your home base. And DeSantis clearly has that, ”said Fabrizio, who voted for President Trump’s two elections and has also worked for DeSantis and Scott in the past. Fabrizio’s poll of 304 Republicans had a +/- 5.6% margin of error.
It was not just Fabrizio’s research that increased Republican enthusiasm for DeSantis in Florida. A poll by Republican researcher Ryan Tyson recently found that DeSantis had better favorable ratings than Trump in the Florida Republican Party, a remarkable achievement considering that Trump beat Florida by a larger margin in 2020 than Barack Obama in 2008.
Obama was the last top Democrat to win in Florida. The state has only one elected Democrat in the entire state now, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who is positioning herself to run for governor against DeSantis next year.
Fabrizio’s research also tested another important metric for voters in the Florida Republican Party: of the three Republicans across the state, who do you believe to be Trump’s biggest supporter? With 67% saying DeSantis, it doesn’t even come close. Only 9% said Scott and 7% Rubio.
Scott’s relatively small numbers are highlighted by a senator who voted against the Electoral College’s vote in Washington, even after a violent pro-Trump crowd invaded the United States Capitol. Rubio voted to certify the results.
“Given the state’s attention to Scott and Rubio’s positions and votes on the outcome of the election, it is somewhat surprising to see DeSantis, by an even greater margin, being perceived as the Trump’s biggest supporter of the three,” said Fabrizio.
Rubio, who ran unsuccessfully against Trump and lost Florida to him in the 2016 Republican Party primaries, did not rule out a future presidential campaign. But for now, his advisers say he is focused on being a senator and running for re-election in 2022. DeSantis, who does not have a team of advisers, is running for re-election at the same time and recently dodged a question on Fox News about your interest in a White House bid.
Scott also has presidential ambitions and could be re-elected in 2024. He was recently chosen to lead the National Republican Senatorial Committee to help the Republican Party regain control of the upper house of Congress.
Scott and DeSantis will speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference this weekend in Orlando, where Trump will make his first public speech since leaving the White House. Rubio is not scheduled to speak, citing an earlier appointment.
Although Rubio is seen as a difficult candidate to beat in the state’s general elections, far-right conservatives have been suspicious of Rubio since his effort to shape a bipartisan immigration reform plan in 2013, and denounced him for voting to approve the College Results January 6. Some expected Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump to challenge Rubio, but she refused.
Fabrizio indicated that Rubio’s defeat to Trump in 2016 still resonates today.
“Imagine if Ted Cruz hadn’t beaten Texas in 2016 and what it meant for Marco Rubio to lose Florida in 2016,” said Fabrizio. “In terms of running for president in the primaries, if you don’t have your home state, what do you have?”