George Paton has to make some important decisions when taking control of the Denver Broncos squad. Free agency and the NFL draft will be key, but what could have precedent is the position of defender.
Some close to the Broncos see Drew Lock coming back for one last shot on the board, with a little veteran competition behind him, like Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jacoby Brissett. However, this equation changed a little from Lock returning as a fait accompli to be much less certain.
What has changed? Detroit Lions responded to Matthew Stafford’s request to seek an exchange.
Over the weekend, NFL speculation was that, to get Stafford, the Broncos would have to give up overall choice No. 9 in the 2021 draft, plus at least a second round and / or Lock or a wide receiver. On Monday, NBC Sports‘Peter King suggested a less prohibitive possibility.
King listed the Broncos among the top three contenders in the Stafford draw, placing Denver in second place, behind the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots.
2. Broncos. I doubt that the new GM George Paton, who watched Stafford closely for 12 years while in Minnesota, would be sold by Drew Lock. Competition needed. Compensation: Two choices in the second round (including the 39th overall this year). Or Lock plus the second round of this year.
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Stafford, who was the first overall choice in the 2009 draft, played 12 seasons in Detroit. He reached a Pro Bowl (as an alternative), but has accumulated some serious statistics. He is the fastest QB in NFL history to reach 45,000 passing yards and totaled 282 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Stafford’s statistical production has not been able to move the needle to Lions in nearly a decade. The 33-year-old took Detroit to the playoffs three times, but failed to win a postseason game and hasn’t sniffed it since 2016.
However, give Stafford a prolific running game, a solid offensive line, the kind of talent in a position of skill that the Broncos have and a defensive-minded trainer who could handle everything else, and the argument is – Stafford could succeed.
Perhaps. Maybe not. But it doesn’t matter what I think. It is the way Paton sees Stafford that will determine how (and if) the Broncos participate in the draw.
Paton is very familiar with Stafford after competing against him as a staff executive for Minnesota Vikings for 12 years at NFC North. This familiarity affects both sides, however. Paton is close enough to Stafford to have developed the view that he is a special franchise QB that was lost in Detroit, or, conversely, that he is a talent, but lacks genuine features to lift all ships.
Time will tell. NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero, who connected the Broncos to Stafford in the same way that King did, exposed the financial pitfalls that any interested party will have to face in order to get the 13th year veteran.
Despite Stafford’s age and history of injuries, it is estimated that there will be a strong commercial market if Lions are willing to move it. He has two years and $ 43 million left on his contract – a bargain price for a quarterback who is still playing at a high level. Among others, the Broncos, Colts, Panthers, Patriots, Saints and the Washington Football Team enter 2021 with significant QB issues.
Any negotiations would likely take place before the fifth day of the 2021 league year in March, when Stafford will receive a $ 10 million bonus on the list. Lions would carry $ 19 million in dead money on their salary cap in 2021, but a negotiation would generate savings of $ 14 million in limit space and $ 20 million in cash at a time when the NFL salary cap is expected to fall.
Result
If Lions were willing to accept two second-round choices, or a second round of 2021 and Lock, in exchange for Stafford, this could be an agreement that Paton could not refuse. This would allow Paton to keep his first-round players and Lock a fresh start.
However, all else I have heard is that the starting point for getting Lions to listen is an initial choice. The higher the choice in the draft order, the more receptive Lions are to negotiate with Stafford. But it won’t end there.
It will take a first and second round choice to get Stafford. I would be surprised if it turns out to be anything less. And that cost would be prohibitive to the point that Paton would be much more inclined to run it back with Lock for a … more … year.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.