When the regular season came to an end and the Denver Broncos limped to finish 5-11, many thought the team would be hitting home continuity that many close to the organization had been defending in the last weeks of December.
While it is likely that the Broncos will not do a full review of the reception, coaching staff and squad in 2021, continuity he went out the window the moment John Elway decided … to be promoted by being released from his duties as general manager.
Elway will still have a say in some personal decisions for the Broncos in the future, but it looks like he will have a similar role to former Baltimore Ravens GM and now executive advisor Ozzie Newsome. Instead, the Broncos’ next general manager will retain power and have the final say in lineup decisions when it comes to free agency and NFL draft.
The only area that seems to be most in the air now that Elway is moving away from his former role is Drew Lock’s future and quarterback position.
Perhaps it should come as no surprise that one of the loudest media outlets when it comes to proclaiming how valuable a quarterback position would be would be difficult for the Broncos to be interested in selecting a QB, and perhaps even moving up the draft. Focus on professional football identified the Broncos as one of five teams in a position to be aggressive for a draft exchange for a QB, including the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots.
PFF’s Michael Renner suggested the following switch for the new Broncos GM:
PICK NO. 9: Denver Broncos
What would be needed
Broncos can choose: 4
Broncos give choices: 9, 40, 111 + future 3rd
Ultimately, John Elway’s downfall in his management as general manager was his passivity in the position of defender. Whether Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum or now Drew Lock, Elway was always taking the draft or the leftover from the free agent in the most important position. Although the NFL doesn’t always get the high picks right, they are at least good at identifying talents who deserve high picks, as it has been almost impossible to find a defender out of the top 15 in the past half decade.
Now, with Denver at a reasonably reasonable swap distance, that should change. This does not mean giving up Lock. It just means not putting all your eggs in the Lock basket like last season. They now have too many gamemakers on the attack to put their playoff hopes on Lock’s inconsistency that led to a passing score of 63.4 in 2020. While the Broncos could wait and hope one of the best players dropped to nine, fans have seen it often can result in taking a quarterback after the rest has been chosen.
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With Elway now one foot out the door when it comes to personnel decisions, it seems that switching to a quarterback is more of a possibility than previously thought possible. From the inside 9NEWS‘Mike Klis suggesting that the new GM will push to update the quarterback position, and probably through the draft, for Woody Paige repeating the same on Twitter, there is legitimate smoke for what looked like a hypothetical fire recently.
It is impossible to know until the new GM is hired, but there are undoubtedly more possibilities at stake than before with Elway and his guy in Lock.
However, it seems that, for the most part, the Broncos will not have a major change this year, despite bringing a new GM. The coaching staff is expected to return virtually intact – sorry for those who want special team coordinator Tom McMahon to leave. McMahon could see the door, but he could easily come back.
Some big decisions will be made about the current big free agents, like DL Shelby Harris and S Justin Simmons, as well as some sensitive issues around restricted free agents like RB Phillip Lindsay, WR Tim Patrick and LB Alexander Johnson.
It is no secret that Elway is and was one of the greatest supporters of the organization Lock in the Broncos. When Elway was expected to return in 2021 as usual, Lock was expected to receive another year as The Guy.
But with Elway now moving on to other areas, helping to manage a football team, Lock’s future is much more uncertain. Whether that’s fair or not, it doesn’t really matter in a results-based business like the NFL.
From left to right: Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, Justin Fields of Ohio and Zach Wilson of BUY.
USA TODAY Sports
A new GM will not be ‘married’ to Lock as the previous regime would have been. The door opened for discussion, especially for the Broncos to be tempted by one of the best non-Trevor Lawrence quarterbacks in the 2021 draft class, such as BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota’s Trey Lance.
It is also fair to imagine how coach Vic Fangio feels about QB’s position. When asked about Lock, it does not appear that the former ball coach is fully convinced of QB as it is today.
“(Lock) can be [the guy again in 2021]”Fangio said on Tuesday.” He’s going to have to improve, which he knows, we all know. We have to eliminate negative moves. We need to become more efficient throughout our operation offensively and, as a defender, he is the leader of this unit. ”
Fangio did not throw Lock under the bus in any way, but it certainly was not a sound endorsement too. In addition to what Fangio said in his end-of-season presser about Lock, would it be fair to assume that he will like Lock less when he returns to evaluate the tape?
Fangio has said in the past that he likes to take a break when the season ends, so as not to allow recency bias to influence his coach and staff decisions and eyes when watching the tape. Lock played better in the final stretch, no doubt, but considering how much Fangio likes to do a self-assessment during one season, will he see this trend line as real progress?
Or will Fangio take the entire sample size for Lock’s season as a whole, instead of pondering how QB played after the season ended? Confusing questions, indeed.
Whether or not you believe Lock could be a franchise quarterback in the future, in 17 games he was not good enough to take a team to a playoff spot. Sure, he could end up taking a turn at Josh Allen’s level and become a statistical outlier, but counting on it would be like buying scratch cards and relying on earnings to feed the family; a risky bet with a questionable probability of success.
Lock has started 17 games so far in his career, is already 24 years old (compared to 22 for Lawrence, Fields and Wilson and 21 for Lance) and has been statistically a bottom 5 p quarterback and has struggled against the average or better passing defenses.
Lock also suffered two injuries in so many seasons that he lost time at the helm of the Broncos, having only two years of control left in his rookie contract. Juxtapose this with five new years for any hypothetical newcomer to the first round.
Lock has enough arm talent and athleticism to be a QB franchise, but 17 games is not an insignificant sample size. If your argument is ‘we don’t know anything about Lock’ after two seasons and 17 games, that means the Broncos, at the very least, need to assess the market.
The Broncos cannot get a blockbuster promoted to QB in the 2021 draft. There will be other suitors for these QB prospects and the cost will not be small, but to compete at AFC West in the next decade with names like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Lock you will need to become, at the very least, a consistent top 10 to 15 quarterback who the Broncos can count on year after year.
Remember, even with his improvements in the final stretch, Lock was one of the last five places this season, according to statistics. Can Lock become a top-level QB or will Denver think he can do better and look elsewhere?
This is probably the first and most important question that the Broncos GM hiring committee will ask all candidates with a hat in the ring.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.