WASHINGTON (AP) – It took Democrats just a few days to assess the extent to which President Joe Biden’s bold immigration proposal you can go to Congress to recognize that if something comes up, it will probably be significantly more modest.
As they prepare to deal with a politically flammable issue that has withstood major Congressional action since the 1980s, Democrats are using words like “aspirational” to describe Biden’s plan and “Herculean” to express the effort they need to prevail.
A similar message came from the White House on Friday, when press secretary Jen Psaki said the new government hopes that Biden’s plan will be “the basis” of Congressional immigration discussions. The Democrats’ cautious tone underscored the fragile path they face on a key issue for their voters, progressives and minority activists.
Even longtime immigration advocates who advocate a total struggle admit that they may have to settle for less than total victory. Opening a path to citizenship for all 11 million US immigrants illegally – the centerpiece of Biden’s plan – is “the bet on the top of the mountain,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of the immigration group America’s Voice, in an interview. “If there are ways to move towards that summit by building victories and momentum, we will look at them.”
The citizenship process under Biden’s plan would take only three years for some people, eight years for others. The proposal would make it easier for certain workers to stay in the United States temporarily or permanently, to provide development aid to Central American nations in the hope of reducing immigration and moving towards strengthening border-tracking technology.
The second Democratic Senate leader, Richard Durbin, of Illinois, said in an interview this week that the most likely package to emerge would create a path to citizenship for so-called Dreamers. They are immigrants who have lived in the USA most of their lives after being brought here illegally as children.
More than 600,000 of them are temporarily allowed to live in the United States under the deferred action for childhood arrivals, or DACA. Former President Barack Obama created this program administratively and Durbin and others would like to see it turned into law.
Durbin, who called Biden’s plan “aspirational,” said he expects other elements as well, such as more visas for farm workers and other workers.
“We understand the political reality of a 50-50 Senate, that any change in immigration will require cooperation between the parties,” said Durbin, who is on his way to becoming chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He said the Senate’s legislation is likely to “not reach the same levels” as Biden’s proposal.
The Senate is divided equally between the two parties, with Vice President Kamala Harris tilting the camera in favor of the Democrats with her tiebreaker vote. Even so, important legislation requires 60 votes to overcome obstructions, or endless procedural delays, to pass. This means that 10 Republicans would have to join all 50 Democrats to enact an immigration measure, a difficult order.
“Approving immigration reform by the Senate, in particular, is a Herculean task,” said Sen. Bob Menendez, DN.J., who will also have a leading role in the battle.
Many Republicans agree with Durbin’s assessment.
“I think the space in a 50-50 Senate will be some kind of DACA agreement,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, RS.C., who has worked with Democrats in previous immigration efforts. “I just think that comprehensive immigration will be a difficult sell, given this environment.
Illustrating the detailed negotiation ahead, Senator Susan Collins, R-Maine, a moderate who sought earlier immigration deals, praised parts of the bill, but said she wants more visas for foreign workers that her state’s tourism industry uses heavily.
Democrats’ obstacles are formidable.
They have a minimal majority in the House and Senate, where Republican support for easing immigration restrictions is often scarce. Fierce party relations were further intensified by ex-President Donald Trump’s clamorous term. Biden will have to spend a lot of political capital and time on previous high-priority projects to fight the pandemic and strengthen the economy, leaving his future power uncertain.
In addition, Democrats will have to resolve important tactical differences.
Sharry said immigration groups prefer Democrats to push for a bill as strongly as possible, without making concessions to Republicans on issues such as increased spending on border security. He said hopes for a bipartisan advance are “a foolish mission” because the Republican Party has largely opposed wasting citizenship opportunities for so long.
But to prevail without the votes of the Republican Party would mean virtual unanimity among Democrats in Congress, a major challenge. It would also mean that Democrats would have to eliminate the Senate obstruction, which they may not have votes to do, or discover other procedural routes around the 60-vote barrier.
“I’m going to start negotiating” with Republicans, said Durbin. He said that a bipartisan bill would be much better “if we can,” because it would increase the chances of approval.
Democrats are already facing attacks from Republicans, eyeing next year’s elections, on an issue that helped boost Trump’s victory in 2016 by strengthening his support from many white voters.
The minority leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., Said that Biden’s bill “would prioritize aid to illegal immigrants and not our fellow citizens.” Senator Rick Scott, R-Fla., Who heads the Senate Republican National Committee, the Republican Party’s campaign arm in the Senate, said the move would harm “working Americans and the millions of immigrants working in the immigration process cool”.
Democrats say such claims are false, but they say it is difficult to come up with clear and forceful answers to what is a complex issue. Instead, it is necessary to have “an adult conversation” with voters, said Dep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., In an interview.
“Yes, it’s about people, but it’s also about economics,” said Spanberger, a moderate from a district where farms and technology companies hire many immigrants. “In central Virginia, we have immigration. And you may not like it, but we do. “