Democrats now appear to be the favorites to win both Senate contests in Georgia and are therefore favorites to take control of the United States Senate. The two Republican candidates have a small advantage in the vote count and still have a chance to maintain those advantages, but most of the remaining votes are in areas with a Democratic bias.
The largest block of ballots remaining is the personal vote in DeKalb County, a heavily democratic area that includes part of Atlanta. Overall, the two Democratic candidates are favorites to win the remaining votes by about nine percentage points, according to Upshot estimates.
Democrats have benefited from strong turnout for black voters, who are expected to represent a much larger portion of the electorate than in the general election, based on district turnout and early voting data.
With 5% of the remaining votes to count, Rev. Raphael Warnock’s projected leadership over Senator Kelly Loeffler is greater than Jon Ossoff’s projected leadership over David Perdue. It is difficult to say when one of the races will be called. The Ossoff-Perdue call may have to wait until late absentees and provisional ballots are counted.