‘Decline is real:’ Several factors behind the drop in COVID-19 cases, health experts say

In recent weeks, the number of new daily cases of COVID-19 has declined in Florida and across the country.

It may be a sign that we have overcome the expected post-holiday increase, but two other important indicators that are being observed by doctors are hospitalizations and deaths associated with the virus. Although they are also down, experts say the numbers are still not low enough to disappoint our guards.

Monday, the Florida Department of Health reported 3,787 new cases of COVID-19. There has been a steady decline since just two weeks ago, on February 1, when we saw more than 10,000 new cases.

“The decline is real,” said Dr. Marissa Levine, Professor of Public Health at the USF. “The exact numbers are probably not that useful because what we’ve seen is a decrease in testing and therefore we may not be seeing all the cases out there.”

But what Dr. Levine tells us we are see is a drop in hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19, key indicators of what is really happening. State data also show that visits to emergency rooms have been declining since the beginning of 2021.

“I would like to warn everyone that we are still experiencing very high levels of illness in the community and even hospitalizations,” said Levine. “We still see a significant number of deaths from COVID.”

In addressing vaccine scams, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody said, “Florida is just around the corner with vaccines that beat infections. This is great news, but it would be a mistake to let your guard down now.”

So far, nearly 2.4 million Florida residents have received their first dose of the vaccine. 1.1 million received their second dose.

“In Florida, we vaccinate only about 11%, maybe a little more than our population, so none of us think that alone is the main factor,” said Levine. “It can start showing an increasing impact as the number of people vaccinated increases. It will be a factor. It just won’t be a big factor right away.”

With Florida leading the country with 379 COVID-19 cases linked to the UK variant, the coming weeks will be critical to see if that decline continues, especially after the big Super Bowl celebrations.

“Unfortunately, we are still seeing very high numbers,” said Levine. “Those numbers look good now, but they wouldn’t look good if we were talking about late spring, early summer, before the second big wave.

Although there are many factors at play here, Dr. Levine said that we are in decline and that is good news. We can continue, but that will require us to do our parts, individually and collectively.

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