A year after the start of the pandemic, California and Florida have become common points of contrast as Americans struggle with the terrible human and economic losses of trying to control COVID-19.
Although states have adopted entirely different approaches to the pandemic, their mortality rates from COVID-19 differ as much as one might expect. Among 50 states, Florida and California’s cumulative COVID-19 death rates are 25th and 29th, respectively, with Florida rates 11% higher.
With so much debate about the strategies and results of the two states, we plunged into the numbers. Here’s what we found.
California has a lower mortality rate than Florida
If California had Florida’s COVID-19 death rate, about 6,000 Californians would be dead. And if Florida had the California death rate, about 3,000 fewer Florida residents would be dead from COVID-19.
For every million California residents, 1,385 Californians died of COVID-19. But for every million Florida residents, 1,538 Florida residents died of COVID-19.
And for every million Californian residents, there were about 91,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus; for every million Florida residents, there were about 94,000 cases. The biggest difference between these two numbers suggests that fewer sick people in Florida were tested for the virus or that patients who tested positive were more likely to die, perhaps because of their age or lower survival rates.
Florida’s summer wave was one of the most deadly in the country this season
California and Florida had comparable mortality rates during the spring wave. The governors of both states have issued orders to stay at home.
But when the summer wave hit, California again implemented company shutdown rules, closing restaurants and gyms in large areas of the state. Florida, no.
While California avoided its worst peak until winter, Florida was hit particularly hard in the summer compared to other states, and deaths soared.
Although treatments for COVID-19 improved in the second half of 2020 and improved survival rates, the sharp increase in the middle of the year meant that those seriously ill during the summer were less likely to benefit from improved medical knowledge.
“Florida paid the price for a very high death rate from the start. California, because it delayed the onset of its worst outbreak, these patients were able to be treated more effectively, resulting in higher survival rates, ”said UCLA epidemiologist Dr. Robert Kim-Farley.
California’s worst wave came in the fall and winter
The worst phase of the pandemic in California came in the fall and winter, and the Golden State also experienced one of the worst waves in the country. At the end of January, California had the country’s worst death rate on a weekly basis.
California experienced great pandemic fatigue in late 2020, and the previously effective rules have become less. The dramatic spread of the virus in LA County reached the heart of the region’s vulnerability – large pockets of poverty, overcrowded housing conditions and a large working-class population who had to leave home to work.
Several California epidemiologists generally attribute the order to stay at home in the state in late fall and winter for preventing the spread of the disease from getting any worse.
Other parts of California fared much better than LA County
One reason California’s death rate is still better than Florida’s is that other parts of the state have endured the winter surge with a mortality rate much lower than that of LA County.
The Bay Area COVID-19 death rate is one-third that of LA County. If LA county deaths are subtracted from the California total, Florida’s death rate would be 39% higher than that of the state. It is the vulnerabilities in LA that have driven California’s outbreaks and pushed their total mortality rates as close to those in Florida.
Florida has some advantages that may explain why its winter wave was milder
About 55% of California residents live in counties with a high score for “social vulnerability” – a measure of how severely a disease outbreak can affect a region – while only a quarter of Florida residents do so. California rate of overcrowding in homes, a metric linked to the spread of coronavirus, is also more than double that of Florida.
Dry air in California can also be a challenge, especially compared to humid Florida. Researchers are still learning how the climate affects the coronavirus, but some studies suggest that when the air is humid, droplets of the virus fall to the ground more quickly, reducing the likelihood that people will become infected.
California has worse unemployment, but a better perspective on the state budget
California’s unemployment level in December was 9.3%, while Florida’s was 5.1%.
Florida’s economy – such as theme parks and tourism – has reopened even with California’s vacillation, due to mandatory closures that lasted for many months.
But the California budget forecast is surprisingly robust. Although unemployment has risen sharply during much of 2020, millions of middle-class and high-paid workers have managed to keep their jobs and work from home. Tax collection also increased after a strong stock market boosted the capital gains made by the state’s wealthiest taxpayers.
While California is forecasting unexpected profits in the state budget, Florida is fighting a deficit in the state budget.
More kids back in the classroom in Florida
In Florida, public schools have been open since August, and parents have the option of sending their children to school or keeping them at home for remote learning during the pandemic.
In California, schools are starting to reopen as levels of coronavirus cases drop and teachers receive vaccines, but most students remain in distance learning.
Times staff writers Sean Greene and John Myers contributed to this report.