A Covid-19 test site in Cape Coral, Florida.
Photographer: Zack Wittman / Bloomberg
Photographer: Zack Wittman / Bloomberg
Covid’s cases in the U.S. are rising again, reversing the course after months of decline and threatening another setback in returning to normalcy.
The seven-day average of new cases jumped to 57,695 on Wednesday, up 9.5% from the previous week, marking the biggest increase since January 12, according to Data from Johns Hopkins University.
Although it is a fraction of the peak in mid-January, the change in direction is worrying as states open up their economies, variant cases multiply and the country runs to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid another wave.
“We are not out of danger,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment, which produces influential Covid-19 projections. “We are slowing down and, in many places, going in the wrong direction.”
Elevation in cases
Percentage change week after week in the average of 7 days of cases in the USA
Source: Johns Hopkins University data
The New York case numbers reported this week by Johns Hopkins appeared artificially inflated after the data lag. But this has not had a significant impact on the national trend, which is growing to approximately the same degree, even without New York.
“Now is not the time to give up. We have the goal in mind, we need more vaccines and more effective ways to eliminate them, ”said Isaac Weisfuse, an epidemiologist and associate professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. “It really is a tragedy for someone to be infected and die at this stage.”
An increase of almost 10% should cause states to reconsider plans to reopen and try to speed up vaccination, focusing on the worst-hit neighborhoods, Weisfuse said. The growing fatigue of the pandemic among younger Americans, especially those traveling on spring break, is a significant concern, because they are less likely to receive injections.
The US vaccinated 1 in 4 people and, last week, administered an average of 2.5 million doses per day, according to Bloomberg vaccine tracker. This is not enough to achieve collective immunity and many public health experts fear that another increase could occur before the immunization boost hits full throttle. Texas, Tennessee and Alabama are among the slowest in the country, which may reflect vaccination hesitation among Republicans, especially men.
While vaccinations and reduced seasonality of the coronavirus are bringing benefits to the United States, this is opposed to more contagious variants, increasing mobility and decreasing the use of masks, said Mokdad.
Case declines in large states like California, Texas and Florida have masked increases elsewhere. “We are seeing a localized increase, but we can see it everywhere,” said Mokdad. “If we are not quick to slow down or impose orders to slow down the increase, yes, we will see an increase in cases.”
Hospitalizations in some states are also beginning to defy the downward trend. Seven states, including New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, reported an average daily increase in Covid-19 admissions for a consecutive week, according to a University of Minnesota analysis of data from the Department of Health and Human Services.
“It is important not to ignore the changes, especially when those changes become more consistent,” he said. Pinar Karaca-Mandic, a health risk management professor who leads the analysis.
The good news: fewer of these hospitalizations can lead to intensive care admissions or deaths, because the vaccination campaign focused on older Americans and those at higher risk, said Karaca-Mandic.
– With the help of Jonathan Levin