Covid-19’s image lights up in the US, but the virus isn’t over yet

“Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax restrictions, ”said Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Friday. “We can’t be comfortable.”

Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have declined in recent weeks, with the seven-day average dropping 74% since the peak of January 11, said Dr. Walensky on Monday. The average daily hospital admissions, now 6,500 a day, has fallen 60% and is at its lowest point since the fall.

There is no single explanation for the declines, health officials say, but the biggest contributor is likely to be behavior change. People are probably taking more precautions after the holiday season and a deadly winter in which the United States surpassed the total 500,000 deaths caused by Covid-19. In addition, state and local authorities have tightened restrictions in response to rising numbers.

Epidemiologists also roughly estimate that at least a quarter of the population had Covid-19, with the majority developing some level of immune response. This, in combination with the relatively small number of people who have been fully immunized, reduces the number of susceptible people in the population and helps to slow the spread. Vaccination probably also reduced hospitalizations and deaths, after spreading to residents of nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

“We are emerging from a vacation bubble and emerging from a very dark and cold winter that may have kept people indoors,” said Darlene Bhavnani, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas at Austin. “I hope that being more outdoors and without major holidays, we will continue to see these falls.”

Some states and counties have started to decrease security measures since conditions have improved. Almost a year after the pandemic began, many people and communities are eager to return to a more normal version of life. But public health officials advise caution, as another increase in cases in the spring is still under discussion.

“The pressure to get back to something more normal will be immense and irresistible,” said Robert Wachter, chairman of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. “My hope is that we are just thinking about it, not just declaring victory and opening the floodgates. This virus is smart and will come back to sting us. “

Loosing mitigation measures too aggressively or too early will likely lead to a recovery in cases – as it did in the spring and last summer, say Dr. Bhavnani and other health officials.

The daily confirmed cases and hospitalizations, although they dropped considerably compared to January, are at a level similar to the peaks seen last summer, and the falls stopped last week. Cases have increased in the past three days, compared to the previous week, and the recent move “should be taken very seriously,” said Walensky.

The amount of immunity accumulated through infection and vaccination is still far from the estimated 70% to 80% or more, necessary to stop the spread only through population-level immunity.

Newer and more transferable variants complicate the calculation. The variant that emerged in the UK can spread much more easily than previous versions of the virus and could become the dominant strain in the United States in March. A variant that emerged in South Africa has shown some resistance to vaccines and therapies currently available.

“I fear that when we reach a level that feels safer for society and people decide to loosen restrictions on communities or themselves, we will see this return in cases,” said Ajay Sethi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. “And in this case, it will be a return on the new variant that is more difficult to control.”

States and cities responded to the rising numbers with a patchwork of rules and regulations based on guidance from their respective health departments, as elected officials attempt to navigate the ever-changing pandemic scenario. Some states, like Iowa and North Dakota, have abandoned their mask mandates.

The state of New York, which recently reopened in-house restaurants in New York City and arenas with limited capacity, is also expected to expand the rules for visiting nursing homes, allow for 25% attendance at cinemas and expand attendance at weddings. State health officials are cautiously optimistic. “To date, we have administered more than 3 million injections, but everyone needs to remember that this pandemic is not over yet,” said Jeffrey Hammond, a spokesman for the New York State Department of Health.

In Virginia, Democratic Governor Ralph Northam said on Wednesday that he would eliminate statewide curfews and restrictions on the number of people allowed in open-air meetings, starting in March.

Lilian Peake, a state epidemiologist at the Virginia Department of Health, said vaccines provide more hope for fewer infections and a return to anything like normal. “The vaccines we have work well and are a way forward,” said Dr. Peake.

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said she would only rest after all residents and visitors arriving in the city were vaccinated.

Arizona experienced a severe increase in coronavirus infections reported during the summer of 2020, only to have the new case numbers overshadowed by an even greater increase in autumn and winter. In the summer, daily confirmed cases exceeded 5,000, while the number of cases in January regularly exceeded 10,000 per day, according to data from the Arizona Department of Health Services. In contrast, the number of daily cases this week was around 1,000.

“Like so many people, I am encouraged to see the number of cases decrease,” said Gallego, a Democrat. “At the same time, I’m afraid to celebrate too soon.”

Write to Brianna Abbott at [email protected] and Talal Ansari at [email protected]